chubbs

Martz isn't an expert on glaciers, geology or Nepal. Pictures of the area in question from the blog I linked above show evidence of melting: 1) The glacier has shrunk quite a bit since 2017 and 2) the glacier isn't the pristine white of unmelted snow. The storymap that I also linked contains the following paragraph about local temperatures: Temperature data from nearby climate stations installed by University of Potsdam show the region has been very warm in the past weeks and months. In addition to the high temperatures across the network, station NPA6 (located approximately 20km from the source area, at 85.28567°N, 28.23455°E) shows rapid temperature increases in the morning in the three days prior to the event, which aligns with the timing of failure (8.37AM Nepal time). These quick temperature swings are a key driver for frost cracking and glacial instability. Bodo Bookhagen (Professor at Uni-Potsdam, Germany) notes that these rapid temperature swings are not evident in the other network sites, indicating this was likely a local event. Let me be clear though, its too early to say whether this event was climate related. That's an expert call.

UAH warmed in August. Expect similar jumps in other August metrics.

I've been tracking since 2023. Over 1C daily is very warm but it has happened before mainly in the 23/24 nino. 1.04C in Nov 2023 is the highest monthly value. August was 0.942 the 5'th highest monthly value , the higher values were the last 4 months of 2023. Note that changes to the gfs model may change the metric.

Storymap on the Nepal floods by the Center for Land for Land Surface Hazards with detailed information from flood gauges, seismic, paleo, etc. The story book is updated as new information becomes available. A couple of quotes from the storymap below. The first quote indicates the flood water came mainly from the slide materials i.e, this material was warm/partially melted. The second quote shows how unusual this event was in area impacted. "However, more recent seismic analysis of the event as well as detailed reconstruction of flood downstream arrival timing (see above) suggests that damming and release of lake water did not likely contribute significantly to this event because the timing of the initial failure (i.e. the ice-rock avalanche) from seismic records is only seven minutes before the arrival of the flood waters in the nearby community of Gyirong, which is not enough time to have constructed a significant lake in the highland region. Instead, melting of ice and frozen sediment/rock in the initial debris flow and avalanche runout has been attributed to the initiation of the flood." In a 2020 study , Huber and others determined boulder-emplacement timing and estimated paleo-flood magnitudes based on boulder size. They show that most boulders in the Trishuli and Sunkoshi were last mobilized and came to rest about 5000 years ago in flood events that far exceed typical monsoon discharges by one to two orders of magnitude. Images and videos from this Trishuli flood suggest this was a larger event, moving larger boulders than the flood event that impacted the valley ~5000 years ago https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/f2b2425eac544929a7d18f4c90b41d66

BS, its well known that glaciers around the world are shrinking rapidly due to climate change. The Himalayas are no exception. The increasing local risk from glacier melting was described as a "crisis" earlier this year: https://www.icimod.org/press-releases/hindu-kush-himalaya-glaciers-losing-ice-at-double-the-rate-since-2000-new-icimod-report-confirm/ Kathmandu, 18 March 2026 – Glaciers across the Hindu Kush Himalaya (HKH) are melting at an accelerating rate, with ice loss rates doubling since the year 2000, according to two new landmark reports that will be released on 21 March 2026 by the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) to mark World Day for Glaciers. The reports, Changing Dynamics of Glaciers in the Hindu Kush Himalaya Region from 1990 to 2020 and HKH Glacier Outlook 2026: Insights from 50 Years of Himalayan Glacier Monitoring, provide the most comprehensive evidence yet of glacier change in the region. They reveal a total loss of up to 27 metres of ice thickness since 1975, sounding an alarm for the nearly two billion people downstream who depend on meltwater from the ‘Water Towers of Asia’. “This isn’t a distant problem; it’s a crisis unfolding in real-time, with new disasters every summer and monsoon. The fact that ice loss rates have doubled this century should shock us all into action,” said Pema Gyamtsho, Director General of ICIMOD. “The Hindu Kush Himalaya is at a crossroads. The rapidly escalating impacts we’re seeing from water uncertainty to catastrophic floods underscore that we are in a critical decade for the cryosphere. We must scale up monitoring and invest in adaptation now. These aren’t blind spots becoming surprises anymore; they are our new reality.”

I estimate 1.77C is needed to break a record this year vs Jacobson's 1.84. In any case August's warmth has made a record likely this year and put 2023's gobsmacking September of 1.74C in play. Sept 2023 is still the highest ERA monthly anomaly.

“We don’t see a time in the past where El Niños have been as strong as today, and we show that the strength of El Niño changes in parallel with the warming of global temperature,” said lead author Julia Cole, professor and chair of the U-M Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences. “Our findings tell us that the big El Niño events of the last 40 years are not normal in the context of the last thousand years.” https://news.umich.edu/el-ninos-more-intense-over-last-40-years-than-previous-1000-according-to-u-m-study/

Blog article on the Nepal floods by a glaciologist providing background and recent history of the area impacted. https://www.antarcticglaciers.org/2026/08/august-2026-nepal-tibet-floods/

Satellite OISST (through August) has risen to a new peak, 0.08C warmer than the previous peak in September 2023. So far, the nino spike this year is very similar in magnitude to the 2023 spike. Both larger and faster than previous El Nino.

The chart I posted shows temperature anomaly, while your chart shows temperature. August will rank a little higher on a temperature basis than it will on an anomaly basis because August is a relatively warm month.

The rise in global temperature anomalies that began in June continues through the end of August in this gfs-based forecast. August will easily break the previous August record and is tracking as the fourth highest monthly anomaly in any month on this metric, fifth highest on ERA. End of the month readings are near the peak monthly value for this metric, 1.04 in November 2023. Note that anomalies are usually highest in the colder months. We'll see what September brings. http://www.karstenhaustein.com/climate.php

Here's Zeke H latest forecasts (updated daily). An August record is almost guaranteed, while a record for 2026 is currently a coin flip. Monthly and yearly record odds have both been increasing as the month continues to run warm. https://dashboard.theclimatebrink.com/#global

This isn't a new thought, scientists have been looking for weather impacts from accelerated warming in the arctic for a while. One hypothesis is a weaker, wavier jetstream, amplifying and slowing the progression of weather patterns. As far as I am aware this hasn't been proven with studies on both sides. Not aware of any findings on baroclinic storms either. Note that increased moisture compensates for weaker temperature gradients in baroclinic storms through increased heat release from condensation in clouds. One weather effect that has been found is a northward shift in the jet stream and storm track.

In El Nino mode. 2026 started #5 in GISS in Jan and Feb, but reached #1 in July. August on track to easily top 2024. Can expect monthly records well into until 2027. The one exception is Sept, the "gobsmacking" warmth of 2023 will be tough to beat.

This study provides an estimate of transient climate response (TCR) using CERES net radiation estimates and updates temperature-based estimates through 2025. The new TCR estimates for temperature are a little higher than previous studies (orange bars) and the CERES TCR estimates (red bars) are higher still, inline with TCR estimated with the warmer CMIP6 models. https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2026EF008356