bluewave Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 ........... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 17, 2014 Share Posted December 17, 2014 todays ao forecast is better than yesterday and continue to be up and down every day...if the ao drops to -4 chances are good for a major storm or cold outbreak...sooner or later the cold will catch up with the moisture...some el nino winters have a lot of down time when you consider snowstorms...1968-69 went almost two months between snowstorms and the first one was a fluke backside event...February and early March had all the action...1994-95 had action in February...I still think February could be a great month... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 We had SSW event in early to mid January 2013 that resulted in a split of PV at 10mb an -AO later that month too. 6z GFS has split of the PV at 10mb in early Jan: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 lowest daily winter ao value since 1950...I hope I didn't miss a date...Weather at the time for NYC...season.......value.....date.....1949-50......-2.854.....3/15/50......1.4" 3/14...record cold the beginning of the month...1950-51......-4.353.....12/27/50....3" snow 12/27 and 9 degrees...the biggest snow and coldest temperature of the winter...1951-52......-3.805.....3/4/1952....4" snow 3/2...1952-53......-3.766.....12/27/52....12 degrees is the coldest temp. of the season...3" snow 12/31...1953-54......-3.495.....1/30/54......cold continues...Cold snowy January...1954-55......-3.064.....1/4/55........cold continues...1955-56......-4.564.....2/15/56......1.4" 2/17 and 2/22...Big March snows...KU...1956-57......-4.473.....2/21/57......2.6" snow 3/1...1957-58......-4.030.....3/11/58......snow storms 3/14 and 3/21...KU event...1958-59......-4.026.....1/7/59........cold continues...1959-60......-4.108.....1/28/60......18 degrees 2/3 is the coldest temp for Feb...Big March cold and snow...KU...1960-61......-2.719.....1/10/61......greatest snowy and cold period followed 1/15-2/12...three KU's...1961-62......-4.417.....3/4/62........record cold 3/2 and the Ash Wednesday storm 3/6...1962-63......-5.010.....1/21/63......Near record cold 1/23 and 4" snow 1/26...Biggest snow of the season...1963-64......-4.470.....12/20/63....1.4" 12/18...6.6" 12/23-24...11 degrees 12/20 coldest for that month...January Blizzard...KU...1964-65......-3.973.....1/26/65......ice storm 1/24 and continued cold...1965-66......-5.130.....1/28/66......8 degrees is the coldest temp. of the season 1/28...Ku storm 7" on 1/30...1966-67......-4.147.....12/13/66....wet snow and rain 12/13-14 is the start of two weeks of snow and cold...7" snow 12/24-25...1967-68......-3.490.....2/7/68........8 degrees 2/11...Cold and dry continues...1968-69......-5.282.....2/13/69......17 degrees 2/17 is the coldest temp for the month...15" of snow 2/9-10...KU...1969-70......-6.365.....3/5/70........20 degrees 3/10 coldest temp for the month...4" of snow 3/29...1970-71......-2.821.....2/6/71........12 degrees max 2/2...1972-73......-2.044.....12/17/72...24 degrees max 12/17...1973-74......-2.792.....12/19/73...big ice storm 12/16-17...17 degrees 12/19 is the coldest temp of the month...1974-75......-1.695.....12/18/74...some minor cold in a mild month...one of the few times the weather was benign at the ao minimum...1975-76......-3.262.....1/24/76......-1 degrees 1/23 is the coldest temp of the winter...1" of snow 1/23...1976-77......-7.433.....1/15/77......-2 degrees on the 17th is the coldest temp of the winter...5" snow 1/14-15...1977-78......-5.291.....2/5/78........10 degrees 2/5 is the coldest temperature of the season...18" snow 2/6-7...KU...1978-79......-4.387.....1/25/79......Very cold and snowy February...KU...1979-80......-3.705.....1/24/80......continued cold and dry...longest stretch of cold that winter...1980-81......-4.318.....3/4/81........largest snowfall for the winter...8.6" 3/5...1981-82......-3.804.....12/30/81...January 1982 was very cold and snowy...1982-83......-3.410.....2/6/83........4" of snow 2/6 and 18" 2/11-12...KU...1983-84......-3.706.....3/13/84......record cold 3/10...7" snow 3/8-9...1984-85......-6.226.....1/19/85.....-2 degrees 1/21 is the coldest temperature that winter...4.1" 1/17...1" 1/20...1985-86......-3.894......2/6/86.......4.5" of snow 2/7 and 2/11...Snowiest period of the winter...1986-87......-3.507.....3/9/87........2" snow 3/12...Near record cold 3/10...1987-88......-2.314.....2/28/88......0.6" 2/27 is the last measurable snow...Thawing after...1988-89......-0.318.....3/4/89........2.5" 3/6 and near record cold 3/7...1989-90......-3.482.....12/10/89...One of the coldest Decembers on record...1990-91......-3.381.....3/9/91.......24 degrees 3/12...benign after that...1991-92......-2.597.....12/4/91.....0.7" 12/5...benign after that...1992-93......-2.228.....3/2/93.......Super storm 3/13...Near record cold followed...KU...1993-94......-3.503.....2/24/94.....2.6" 2/23...12 degrees 2/27...Feb KU...1994-95......-3.116.....3/9/95.......20 degrees 3/10 is the coldest temp for the month...KU in Feb...1995-96......-4.353.....12/19/95...8" of snow during a very cold period...January blizzard..KU...1996-97......-3.377.....12/30/96...11 degrees New Years Day....1997-98......-4.269.....1/10/98.....14 degrees New Years day...Coldest of the winter...1998-99......-3.856.....3/10/99......5" snow 3/14-15...17 degrees 3/8 is the coldest temp for the month...1999-00......-2.118.....2/18/00......3" snow and ice 2/22...KU in January...2000-01......-4.854.....2/25/01......6" snow 2/22 and 17 degrees...coldest for the month...2001-02......-3.293.....12/28/01...Coldest period of the winter followed but benign...2002-03......-3.575.....1/22/03......7 degrees 1/24 is the coldest for the winter...KU in February...2003-04......-4.387.....1/17/04......1 degree 1/16 is the coldest temp of the season...6" of snow 1/15...Dec. KU...2004-05......-4.337.....2/26/05......6" of snow 2/25 and 8" 2/29...KU in January...2005-06......-3.569.....12/5/05......2" snow 12/4...1" 12/6 and 6" 12/9...14 degrees 12/14 is the coldest temp of the season...KU in Feb...2006-07......-2.184.....2/4/07........8 degrees 2/5 is the coldest for the winter...2007-08......-2.468.....1/2/08........12 degrees 1/3 second coldest of the winter...2008-09......-3.178.....2/3/09........4.3" 2/5 12 degrees...2009-10......-5.821.....12/21/09...11" snow 12/19-20...KU...16 degrees 12/18 is the coldest for the month...2010-11......-5.172.....12/18/10...20" of snow 12/26-27...23 max on 12/14.. 2011-12......-3.451.....01/28/12...4.3" of snow 1/21...Biggest of the season... 2012-13......-5.688.....03/20/13...3.0" of snow 3/18 and continued cold... 2013-14......-2.605.....01/27/14...5 degrees 1/22...11" of snow 1/21...21 max 1/28... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 18, 2014 Share Posted December 18, 2014 ^^^^^^^^^Great stats as usual Uncle. We came really close to 6 inches in early February 1985 following that very impressive -AO plunge with the record Arctic outbreak. But the La Nina pattern was too much to overcome for a more significant snow event. NYC Feb 2,1985.........4.3 inches. Feb 5-6,1985......5.7 inches. 1985 1 17 -4.895 1985 1 18 -5.693 1985 1 19 -6.226 1985 1 20 -5.581 1985 1 21 -4.224 1985 1 22 -2.916 1985 1 23 -2.175 1985 1 24 -1.791 1985 1 25 -1.765 1985 1 26 -1.843 1985 1 27 -1.908 1985 1 28 -1.656 1985 1 29 -1.258 1985 1 30 -0.766 1985 1 31 -0.275 1985 2 1 -0.488 1985 2 2 -1.502 1985 2 3 -1.968 1985 2 4 -1.905 1985 2 5 -2.345 1985 2 6 -3.310 NYC got 4.1" on Jan. 17th, 1985...another inch on the 19th with below zero temps... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 19, 2014 Share Posted December 19, 2014 January 21st, 1985 was the most impressive display of Arctic sea smoke that I ever saw on the Atlantic south of Long Beach. I saw steam rising from the Narrows in January 1985 and Christmas 1980...1985 and 1981 had very mild second halves of February...when the ao goes below -5 big things happen...Not so much in March only because it is so late in the season... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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