Invest 90L--40% Two Day, 50% 7 Day Development Odds

[WxWatcher007]

We've been talking about a window for tropical development for weeks, and now we have our first invest of the season. Regardless of development, heavy rain will continue across much of the south. Separating out a thread so we can continue the discussion here. 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Jun 15 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Northwestern Gulf of America:
A trough of low pressure located over northeastern Mexico is 
producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Development is not expected during the next day or so while the 
trough remains inland.  However, the system could re-emerge over the 
northwestern Gulf of America late Tuesday or Wednesday, and 
environmental conditions there are marginally conducive for the 
formation of a short-lived tropical storm on Wednesday into 
Thursday.

Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, interests across southern 
and eastern Texas and portions of Louisiana and Mississippi should 
prepare for periods of intense rainfall over the next several days 
which could produce widespread, life-threatening flash, urban, and 
river flooding. Gusty winds and coastal flooding are also possible 
along portions of the northwestern Gulf Coast, and Tropical Storm 
Watches or Warnings could be required on Tuesday.  Additional 
information on this system can be found in products issued by your 
local National Weather Service Forecast Office or NHC Key Messages.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake