Predict the cold and snow == contest (deadline for entries 0100h EST Sat Feb 7th

[Roger Smith]

Contest snow is only a Trace, as 0.1" before midnight outside the contest period. Prue11 leads on that element so far. 

Today's max of 27 (before 0500) may not stand after tomorrow, but we never know. Our mildest low max prediction is 24. Our mean is 19 and our lowest is 16. 

For the min, almost bound to be tonight the forecasts range from -1 F to +9 and the mean is +6. The record low is -7F set at midnight on the way down to the coldest of all records at NYC, -15 (1934) Feb 9th 1934. It was -50 F upstate and in rural eastern Ontario on that frigid occasion (under a strong arctic high). That day also set the low max for Feb 9th, 8F. Two earlier very cold Feb 9th's were 1899 (11, -2) and 1875 (13, 0). Since 1934, the coldest readings on Feb 9 have been 19F (lowest max 1994) and 9F (lowest min 1979). The record low max for Feb 8th is 8F in 1895, and the lowest otherwise is 21F on several occasions. The coldest min since 1934 was a -2F reading Feb 8, 1963. 

[Roger Smith]

By midnight it was 6F at NYC for the daily low Feb 7th. 

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Looks like the low at Central Park was 3 degrees above. That bodes well for the one person that guessed 3 degrees. 
 

If the high at the park is 17 today game over. 

[Roger Smith]

Yes, you would also be leader with a max of 18, if 3 is confirmed as low (the contest runs through tomorrow so it would need to remain above 3 F tonight).

A max of 16 or lower would give RJay the title, dmillz25 would win for a max of 19, and Sacrus for a max of 20. Snowfall only needed to separate RJay and you, as well as myself. There again RJay would have to avoid 0.6" to 1.4" snow through Tuesday by contest rules. A snowfall of 0.8" would leave order of entry as the tie-breaker, and RJay can only beat me on order of entry. 

We should have a preliminary max for NYC and a confirmed min by about 5 p.m., will be back then, but the preliminary max would need to hold up until midnight.

[Roger Smith]

The high so far today is now listed at 17F at NYC ... will need to check final values and see what happens tomorrow before declaring a winner but so far CPcantmeasuresnow has hit both numbers right on (17, 3). 

Tonight winds will be much lighter so NYC will have problems getting as low, plus the upper support is gradually weakening too. I would imagine tomorrow's max will be 25-30 at least so that won't affect the results either. 

[Roger Smith]

Current contest standings _ low max 18 _ low min 3

temps confirmed at end of day and must survive Monday also

tiebreaker needed refers to method placing forecast ahead of tied total error below it (if any)

Consensus is ranked but does not affect following ranks.

 

Rank _FORECASTER (order of entry) ___________ MAX _ MIN __ Temp errors __ snow __ tiebreaker needed

_01___CPcantmeasuresnow (12) _________________ 17 ___ 3 _____ 1,0 _ 1 ________ 1.4"

_02___Tony (via RJay post) (15) _________________ 17 ___ 2 _____ 1,1 __ 2 ________ 0.6" ___ snow

_03___bkviking (14) _____________________________ 17 ___ 4 _____ 1,1 __ 2 _________ 0.7"

_04___RJay (18) _________________________________16 ___ 4 _____ 2,1 __ 3 _________ 0.2" ___ snow

_05___Roger Smith (19) __________________________16 ___ 4 _____ 2,1 __ 3 _________ 0.6" ___ snow 

_06___dmillz25 (10) ______________________________19 ___ 5 _____ 1,2 __ 3 ________ 0.7"

_07___DonSutherland1 ( 1 ) _______________________17 ___ 6 _____ 1,3 __ 4 ________ 0.2" ___ snow

_08___SACRUS ( 3 ) _____________________________20 ___ 5 _____ 2,2 __ 4 ________ 0.4" ___ snow

_09 ___snowman19 (17) __________________________ 21 ___ 2 _____ 3,1 __ 4 _________ 0.5" ___ snow

_(09)____ Consensus (mean of entries) ________ 19 ___ 6 _____ 1,3 __ 4 _______ 0.5" ___ (tied 9th)

_10___IYC77 ( 6 ) ________________________________18 ___ 7 _____ 0,4 __ 4 ________ 0.8" ___ snow 

_11___TriPol ( 9 ) _________________________________18 ___-1 _____ 0,4 __ 4 ________ 1.3"

_12___Northshorewx ( 7 ) _______________________ 16 ___ 6 _____ 2,3 __ 5 ________ 0.4" ___ smaller error max

_13___Stormlover74 (11) _________________________ 19 ___ 7 _____ 1,4 __ 5 ________ 0.4"

_14___coastalplainsnowman ( 2 ) ________________19 ___ 9 _____ 1,6 __ 7 _________0.75"

_16___wxallannj ( 8 ) ____________________________ 21 ___ 8 _____ 3,5 __ 8 ________ 0.2" ___ snow

[email protected] ( 4 ) ___________20 ___ 9 _____ 2,6 __ 8 ________ -- -- 

_17___Prue11 ( 5 ) _______________________________ 21 ___ 9 _____ 3,6 ___ 9 ________ Tr ___ best snow forecast so far

_18___Rwes1 (13) _______________________________ 22 ___ 8 _____ 4,5 ___ 9 ________ 0.1" ___

_19___PositiveEPOEnjoyer (16) __________________24 ___ 8 _____ 6,5 ___ 11 _______ 0.5"

=====================

<<< now confirmed >>>

Max 17 in early climate report became 18 F in final report (max after 4 pm)

Snowfall standings, pending any changes on Tuesday

1. Prue11 ___ Tr

2. Rwes1 ___ 0.1"

t3. RJay, DonSutherland1, wxallannj __ 0.2"

t6. Sacrus, Stormlover74, northshorewx ___ 0.4"

t9. Snowman19, PositiveEPOEnjoyer ___ 0.5"

t11. Tony, Roger Smith __ 0.6"

t13. bkviking, dmillz25 __ 0.7"

15.  coastalplainsnowman __ 0.75"

16. IYC77 ___ 0.8"

17. TriPol ___ 1.3"

18. CPcantmeasuresnow __ 1.4"

(RJay and DonSutherland1 had the best combined ranks)

[Roger Smith]

With the preliminary climate report for today 31/10 the scoring above is now confirmed. CPcantmeasuresnow had the lowest total errors (1 deg)  followed by Tony and bkviking (2 deg).  

CPcantmeasuresnow had a perfect 17/3 going before the final report of 18/3 changed the results by one degree but still finished first in the temperature contest.

I will review the snowfall situation at end of tomorrow's data and score the snowfall forecasts separately just for fun. The current standings are also shown in the previous post.

Thanks for participating.