September Medium/ Long Range

[Weather Will]

Latest WB EURO weeklies for September.  Looks like more perfect fall weather, although we need rain.

[Weather Will]

Pretty sparse late week rain  chances on the WB 12Z globals.

[Jebman]

Look I apologize for posting this stuff in the modeling long range thread. But I need a real meteorologist like Millville Wx, high risk, WxUSAF,  wxmeddler, or any other red tagged Met to explain this nomenclature to me.

My fields are software engineering and AI engineering, not these apparently statistical terms. I am not really a weather person, only a silly snow weenie in winter wishing 4 feet of snow on DCA from one storm.

This paragraph is from today's AFD for AUS.

The rainy and cloudy weather will support cooler temperatures
beginning this weekend. With a thermal trough in our area during
this period, showers and storms could be more effective at producing
rain-cooled air. The approaching front may also contribute some
cooler air depending how far south it gets, though given the time of
year, most of the cooler temperatures will probably be rain and
cloud driven. This introduces significant uncertainty in
temperatures as illustrated by 7 to 10 degree interquartile ranges
in NBM QMD maximum temperatures on Sunday and Monday. Given the
large uncertainties, the current temperature forecast is aligned
with the NBM, featuring highs in the 80s to low 90s Sunday and
Monday before gradually warming back up into midweek after the
active weather pattern passes.

 

What I would like a meteorologist to do for me here is to please explain to me in 4th grade terms, what interquartile means. This stuff is WAY above my paygrade as well as centuries above my IQ level too. lmao

 

Thanks in advance, I am sorry for posting this in the long range thread BUT I need a real Met to try and explain this term to me.

Another thing, what are standard deviations? What do meteorologists mean when they say in an area forecast disco, that moisture is several standard deviations above normal for that time of year?