NEW DISTURBANCE: Central Tropical Atlantic (0/20)

[BarryStantonGBP]

OI OIII

NEW DISTURBANCE LADZZZZ

[BarryStantonGBP]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sat Aug 16 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane 
Erin, located about 100 miles north of the Virgin Islands.


2. Central Tropical Atlantic:
An area of low pressure could form over the central tropical 
Atlantic during the middle to latter portion of next week from a 
westward moving tropical wave.  Some subsequent development could 
occur as the system moves westward to west-northwestward at around 
15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.



Forecaster Patel
    

[GaWx]

 12Z UK has TS 3rd run in row but this recurves ~62W due to Erin to its N:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 15.6N 48.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 21.08.2025 108 16.8N 50.3W 1009 26
1200UTC 21.08.2025 120 18.5N 54.0W 1008 31
0000UTC 22.08.2025 132 20.3N 56.7W 1006 31
1200UTC 22.08.2025 144 21.9N 59.3W 1005 36
0000UTC 23.08.2025 156 24.5N 61.2W 1006 35
1200UTC 23.08.2025 168 25.3N 61.8W 1006 38

[BarryStantonGBP]

2 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 0Z UK has TS 3rd run in row but this recurves ~62W due to Erin to its N:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 15.6N 48.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 21.08.2025 108 16.8N 50.3W 1009 26
1200UTC 21.08.2025 120 18.5N 54.0W 1008 31
0000UTC 22.08.2025 132 20.3N 56.7W 1006 31
1200UTC 22.08.2025 144 21.9N 59.3W 1005 36
0000UTC 23.08.2025 156 24.5N 61.2W 1006 35
1200UTC 23.08.2025 168 25.3N 61.8W 1006 38

Do you think the blob will form + probable peak intensity?

[GaWx]

1 minute ago, BarryStantonGBP said:

Do you think the blob will form + probable peak intensity?

Yes.

I have no idea.

[BarryStantonGBP]

4 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Yes.

I have no idea.

MH POSSIBLE?

[BarryStantonGBP]

• Quote from another forum

• 
• Members
• •  1.6k
• Weather Preferences:Long, hot and dry summers with lots of thunderstorms mixed in

Posted 5 minutes ago

Way too far out right now but the GFS has a Hurricane Fernand making multiple landfalls across the Caribbean/Florida in around a weeks time with potential major hurricane status.

Atmospheric conditions here would be much more favourable for a US landfall than with Erin, still very far out and models still iffy on formation but one to watch closely.