INVEST 98L: NOW 50/50

[WxWatcher007]

98L is still very disorganized per recon so far. 

[WxWatcher007]

We have some light westerlies in that most recent batch of data from recon which is meaningful, but still, not terribly organized. 

[WxWatcher007]

Despite the IR appearance, it does look like 98L is organizing more now. 

Again, not a lot of time, but the NHC has upped the development odds given the trends we're starting to see. 

[BarryStantonGBP]

5 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Despite the IR appearance, it does look like 98L is organizing more now. 

Again, not a lot of time, but the NHC has upped the development odds given the trends we're starting to see. 

Southwestern Gulf (AL98): Recent geostationary and microwave satellite imagery indicates that shower and thunderstorm activity is showing some signs of organization with a small area of low pressure located over the southwestern Gulf. An earlier Air Force reconnaissance mission found that the system lacks a well-defined low-level circulation. The low is forecast to move west-northwestward to northwestward across the western Gulf during the next day or so, and environmental conditions appear generally favorable for further development. A tropical depression could form before this system moves inland over northeastern Mexico or southern Texas by late Friday. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is possible along portions of northeastern Mexico and southern Texas over the next few days. Another Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system Friday morning.

Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.

Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

[WxWatcher007]

Now we're seeing a burst of convection near the apparent center, and this may be particularly well timed should it sustain itself through the diurnal max. We'll see if this leads to TC genesis. Given the structural organization that seemed to be underway this evening, it probably increases the odds. 

This was a few hours ago before this burst

[BarryStantonGBP]

3 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Now we're seeing a burst of convection near the apparent center, and this may be particularly well timed should it sustain itself through the diurnal max. We'll see if this leads to TC genesis. Given the structural organization that seemed to be underway this evening, it probably increases the odds. 

This was a few hours ago before this burst

Still 50/50 lad