TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED IN CHAD, AFRICA (NOT 96L)

[BarryStantonGBP]

THIS WAVE HASN'T SPLASHED DOWN YET BUT DESERVES ITS OWN THREAD ANYWAY

POST MODEL RUNS HERE 

[BarryStantonGBP]

oui oui baguette

Quote

 Tropical Wave Inside Africa

•  

#2 by Category5Kaiju » Wed Aug 06, 2025 7:39 pm 

At least per the most recent GFS run, what really catches my attention is how quickly this storm seems to form just after exiting Africa, becoming what appears to be a named system right next to the Cape Verde islands. Given its very high intensity down the line, somewhat reminds me of storms like Irma, Florence, and Lorenzo in that regard as well.

Really hope not, but if some of these model guidances are correct, then this could be a very long thread.

 

[GaWx]

 The 6Z Euro ens 144 hour (end of run) is more active and quite possibly the most active run yet with this AEW. I count 19 closed sfc lows with 4 of those being sub 1000 mb. This is unfortunately setting up to be a potentially very dangerous system down the road for some land areas and is something the Euro Weeklies have been on top of for at least the last 9 days.
 
 For the Conus, itself, I’ll especially be interested in whether or not the MJO is going to be either in or nearby phase 2 (inside or outside the circle), the most dangerous phase per the last 50 years of tracks, around two weeks from now. Model consensus is at least hinting at that possibility.

[GaWx]

W African AEW:

1. The 12Z ICON is slightly stronger than the 0Z with the W African AEW. At 180, it has what already looks like a TD (well organized 1008 mb low at 19N, 46W. Although a TC near that position often recurves safely, this one is turning back to just N of due W after moving WNW earlier due to a stronger high to its north at this longitude.

2. The 12Z UKMET doesn’t have this. However, the 0Z had this data, which may or may not be from the same AEW:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 114 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+114 : 15.4N 18.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 12.08.2025 120 15.6N 21.0W 1009 28
1200UTC 12.08.2025 132 15.0N 24.0W 1010 27
0000UTC 13.08.2025 144 15.4N 26.0W 1010 23
1200UTC 13.08.2025 156 CEASED TRACKING