May 30th 2025 Severe Weather Potential

[kayman]

Here is the SPC forecast for May 30th, 2025 for Southeastern AL, FL Panhandle, GA, SC, NC, and VA with a potential upgrade in the severe potential

SPC AC 291729

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1229 PM CDT Thu May 29 2025

   Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
   CAROLINAS/MID-ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST STATES...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Scattered severe storms with wind damage, large hail, and a couple
   tornadoes will be possible especially Friday afternoon and evening
   across the Mid-Atlantic/Southeast States.

   ...Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic/Southeast States... 
   As large-scale pattern amplification occurs over the CONUS, a
   shortwave trough located over the lower Ohio River Valley early
   Friday morning, will steadily progress east-southeastward over the
   southern Appalachians and reach the Carolinas/Virginia by Friday
   evening. Strong winds aloft will accompany this shortwave trough
   with a belt of 60+ kt mid-level winds overspreading the southern
   Appalachians and Carolinas. 

   While the warm sector preceding an east/southeastward-moving cold
   front will not be strongly unstable, particularly by late-spring
   standards, prevalent 60s F surface dewpoints, steepening mid-level
   lapse rates and strong deep-layer shear will support organized
   severe storms especially into Friday afternoon through early
   evening, including relatively fast-moving storms for late spring.
   While a few early day severe storms could occur across eastern
   Kentucky and nearby Allegheny Plateau/Appalachians, the main severe
   risk should begin to evolve in the immediate lee of the Appalachians
   including the Blue Ridge vicinity by Friday early/mid-afternoon.
   These storms, including some supercells and more prevalent evolving
   linear clusters with bowing segments, should reach coastal areas by
   early evening. Damaging winds and severe hail can be expected, and
   some tornado potential may exist as well, particularly across
   Virginia/North Carolina near the surface wave and warm front where
   low-level shear/SRH should maximize.

   ...Eastern Wisconsin/northern Illinois/Lake Michigan vicinity...
   A south/southeastward-digging clipper-type shortwave trough will
   influence the region into Friday afternoon and evening, with
   thunderstorms potentially focusing near a weak surface
   wave/instability gradient as a cold front otherwise progresses
   southward across the region. Low-level moisture will be rather
   modest with afternoon dewpoints generally limited to the lower 50s
   F. However, relatively steep lapse rates and moderately strong
   vertical shear, enhanced by 50+ northwesterly mid-level winds,
   should support strong/isolated severe storms Friday afternoon into
   evening, with hail and wind possible as storms progress
   south-southeastward.

   ...Eastern New Mexico...
   While the overall scenario will not be as severe storm-favorable as
   prior days, a couple of locally severe storms may occur Friday
   afternoon/early evening mainly near the higher terrain of
   east-central New Mexico.

   ..Guyer.. 05/29/2025

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[kayman]