May 30th 2025 Severe Weather Potential

[kayman]

Here is the SPC forecast for May 30th, 2025 for Southeastern AL, FL Panhandle, GA, SC, NC, and VA with a potential upgrade in the severe potential

SPC AC 291729

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1229 PM CDT Thu May 29 2025

   Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
   CAROLINAS/MID-ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST STATES...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Scattered severe storms with wind damage, large hail, and a couple
   tornadoes will be possible especially Friday afternoon and evening
   across the Mid-Atlantic/Southeast States.

   ...Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic/Southeast States... 
   As large-scale pattern amplification occurs over the CONUS, a
   shortwave trough located over the lower Ohio River Valley early
   Friday morning, will steadily progress east-southeastward over the
   southern Appalachians and reach the Carolinas/Virginia by Friday
   evening. Strong winds aloft will accompany this shortwave trough
   with a belt of 60+ kt mid-level winds overspreading the southern
   Appalachians and Carolinas. 

   While the warm sector preceding an east/southeastward-moving cold
   front will not be strongly unstable, particularly by late-spring
   standards, prevalent 60s F surface dewpoints, steepening mid-level
   lapse rates and strong deep-layer shear will support organized
   severe storms especially into Friday afternoon through early
   evening, including relatively fast-moving storms for late spring.
   While a few early day severe storms could occur across eastern
   Kentucky and nearby Allegheny Plateau/Appalachians, the main severe
   risk should begin to evolve in the immediate lee of the Appalachians
   including the Blue Ridge vicinity by Friday early/mid-afternoon.
   These storms, including some supercells and more prevalent evolving
   linear clusters with bowing segments, should reach coastal areas by
   early evening. Damaging winds and severe hail can be expected, and
   some tornado potential may exist as well, particularly across
   Virginia/North Carolina near the surface wave and warm front where
   low-level shear/SRH should maximize.

   ...Eastern Wisconsin/northern Illinois/Lake Michigan vicinity...
   A south/southeastward-digging clipper-type shortwave trough will
   influence the region into Friday afternoon and evening, with
   thunderstorms potentially focusing near a weak surface
   wave/instability gradient as a cold front otherwise progresses
   southward across the region. Low-level moisture will be rather
   modest with afternoon dewpoints generally limited to the lower 50s
   F. However, relatively steep lapse rates and moderately strong
   vertical shear, enhanced by 50+ northwesterly mid-level winds,
   should support strong/isolated severe storms Friday afternoon into
   evening, with hail and wind possible as storms progress
   south-southeastward.

   ...Eastern New Mexico...
   While the overall scenario will not be as severe storm-favorable as
   prior days, a couple of locally severe storms may occur Friday
   afternoon/early evening mainly near the higher terrain of
   east-central New Mexico.

   ..Guyer.. 05/29/2025

[kayman]

[kayman]

[kayman]

[flair_2000]

Enhanced risk now.  Includes the Triangle and parts of the Triad. 

[SEwakenosnowforu]

These clouds are killing our chances. I think SC has the best chance.

[kayman]

Raleigh/Durham, Richmond, Washington, and Baltimore might see more of threat of tornadic supercells or QLCS tornadic development

[kayman]

Charlotte, Raleigh/Durham, Greensboro, Columbia, Augusta, Savannah have an enhanced damaging wind threat today.

[kayman]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 347
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1255 PM EDT Fri May 30 2025

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
     East-Central Alabama
     Northern into Central and Eastern Georgia
     Western North Carolina
     Western and Central South Carolina

   * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 1255 PM until
     800 PM EDT.

   * Primary threats include...
     Widespread damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
     Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
     A tornado or two possible

   SUMMARY...A developing broken band of intensifying thunderstorms
   will quickly move across the Watch area this afternoon into the
   early evening.  Severe gusts (60-70 mph) capable of wind damage will
   be the primary hazard.  A brief tornado or two is possible in
   addition to an isolated risk for large hail.

   The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 115
   statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles east northeast
   of Hickory NC to 25 miles southeast of Columbus GA. For a complete
   depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
   (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

   PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

   REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
   favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
   Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
   weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
   warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
   tornadoes.

   &&

   AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
   1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
   few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
   27045.

   ...Smith

[kayman]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Tornado Watch Number 348
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   135 PM EDT Fri May 30 2025

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Tornado Watch for portions of 
     Northwest into Central North Carolina
     Western and Northern Virginia
     Southern and Eastern West Virginia

   * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 135 PM until
     800 PM EDT.

   * Primary threats include...
     A couple tornadoes possible
     Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
     Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible

   SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop ahead of a
   surface low where enlarged hodographs and moist low levels will
   promote a mix of cells and bands of storms.  The stronger storms
   will pose a risk for a couple of tornadoes, scattered damaging
   gusts, and isolated large hail.

   The tornado watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles
   east and west of a line from 30 miles north northeast of Elkins WV
   to 20 miles southwest of Greensboro NC. For a complete depiction of
   the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
   WOU8).

   PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

   REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
   tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
   area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
   threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
   and possible warnings.

   &&

   OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 347...

   AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
   surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
   gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
   storm motion vector 25035.

   ...Smith

[kayman]

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Columbia SC
359 PM EDT Fri May 30 2025

SCC025-057-302015-
/O.CON.KCAE.TO.W.0009.000000T0000Z-250530T2015Z/
Lancaster SC-Chesterfield SC-
359 PM EDT Fri May 30 2025

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 415 PM EDT FOR CENTRAL
LANCASTER AND NORTHWESTERN CHESTERFIELD COUNTIES...

At 359 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located near Buford, or 8 miles northeast of Lancaster, moving
east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is
         likely.

This dangerous storm will be near...
  Buford around 405 PM EDT.

Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Camp
Creek Fire Station, Taxahaw, Unity Fire Station, Arrowood Estates,
Tradesville, and High Point Fire Station.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a
vehicle, move to an interior room or closet on the lowest floor of a
sturdy building immediately.

&&

LAT...LON 3482 8079 3482 8047 3481 8042 3465 8044
      3477 8087 3479 8086
TIME...MOT...LOC 1959Z 276DEG 30KT 3480 8065

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN

$$

 

This is a tornado warning for Union County, NC, Lancaster County, and Chesterfield County, SC. 

Of course, the NWS doppler radar hole around Metro Charlotte is causing the velocity reflectivity to be very blurry.  The CLT Terminal Doppler is severely limited in range of reflectivity. 

[SEwakenosnowforu]

I called it today. Bust! Atmosphere worked over hard lastnight. Too much cloud covetr today.