Severe Weather 2-11-24

[cheese007]

Big D1 ENH stretching from SE TX to the Alabama border with a sigtor hatch to match. Already having a storm ongoing in TX that's been tornado warned for quite some time

SPC AC 111627

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1027 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024

   Valid 111630Z - 121200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
   INTO EARLY TONIGHT FROM SOUTHEAST TX TO CENTRAL LA/MS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A few tornadoes, some of which could be strong, very large hail to
   the size of baseballs, and isolated wind damage are all expected
   through tonight from southeast Texas into central parts of Louisiana
   and Mississippi.  More isolated severe storms will be possible into
   Alabama and western Georgia.

   ...Southeast TX today to central LA/MS/AL through tonight...
   A midlevel shortwave trough over west TX will continue eastward over
   TX/OK through tonight.  Associated surface cyclogenesis is expected
   today along a baroclinic zone across southeast TX, and the wave
   cyclone will subsequently move east-northeastward into MS tonight. 
   Ongoing/elevated supercells may persist across northern LA through
   midday/early afternoon along the northeast edge of the steeper
   midlevel lapse rates and larger buoyancy, with large hail/damaging
   winds possible.  The primary severe threat should evolve from the
   ongoing southeast TX supercells, and with additional storm
   development near the warm front through the afternoon/evening into
   LA/MS.

   A moist/unstable warm sector with upper 60s dewpoints and
   temperatures warming into the 70s is already established along and
   south of the baroclinic zone across southeast TX into southern
   LA/MS.  The boundary should move a little northward today as a warm
   front and provide a focus for additional severe storms through
   tonight as far east as MS/AL.  The steep midlevel lapse rates
   (7.5-8.5 C/km) in 12z observed soundings and long hodographs will
   favor isolated very large hail up to 2.5-2.75" diameter with the
   more intense supercells today from southeast TX into central LA, and
   by this evening into central MS.  Low-level shear/hodograph
   curvature will be sufficient for tornadic supercells, with some
   potential for a couple of strong tornadoes in this same corridor.

   ..Thompson/Wendt.. 02/11/2024

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