Iceresistance Posted September 20, 2021 Share Posted September 20, 2021 Currently a Weaker system, but the NHC is having fun with this right now . . . Tropical Storm Rose Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172021 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 20 2021 ...ROSE MIGHT NOT BLOOM INTO A MUCH STRONGER STORM ... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.3N 33.4W ABOUT 620 MI...1000 KM WNW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES There are a lot of thorns in the way of Rose blossoming into a stronger storm. Increasing shear and drier mid-level air are on the way for tonight, competing against the somewhat warm SSTs. Thus Rose has about a day to flower into a moderate tropical storm, and no significant change was made to the short term forecast. At longer range, stronger shear and dry air should pull the petals off Rose one-by-one, causing the cyclone to slowly weaken. The new forecast is similar to the previous one, with some small 5-kt downward adjustments. Rose could even shrivel up into a remnant low by day 5, but that's not shown yet in the forecast. 2 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted September 20, 2021 Author Share Posted September 20, 2021 Rose may never be strong, but the NHC never stops coming up with funny discussions . . . The long-term future of Rose doesn't look golden either due to further increasing shear from an incoming upper- level trough. The new forecast is just a shade lower than the previous one, near the model consensus, with Rose likely sinking to a depression in a few days and degenerating to a remnant low by day 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted September 21, 2021 Author Share Posted September 21, 2021 OH COME ON! I'm just losing it at this rate! ...ROSE GOING THROUGH A ROUGH PATCH... ...BARELY A TROPICAL STORM.... The storm's environment is no bed of roses during the next several days, with persistent moderate westerly or northwesterly shear, plentiful dry air aloft and only marginally warm waters. Almost all of the guidance shows Rose decaying into a tropical depression this evening, and the new forecast is decreased from the previous one, especially in the near term. A continuation of this hostile environment should cause further weakening, and Rose is expected to be pushing up daisies in 3 days or less, degenerating into a weak remnant low and dissipating by the end of the forecast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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