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El Niño watch spring 2021


George001
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Over the past couple of weeks the subsurface temps several hundred meters below the surface of the enso region have drastically increased. The subsurface temps have risen from -1 degrees Celsius in mid Feb to .5 degrees celsius now. The Nina is still there at the surface, but it appears that the warmth is both rising and moving east to engulf not only region 4 but 3.4 and 3 as well. There is a lag period due to the time it takes for the warmth to surface, but it appears that it will surface and could potentially lead to the development of El Niño conditions by summer. 

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I have a couple of questions for those who are more knowledgeable about enso stuff than I am. Historically what have the following Summers, falls and winters looked like in terms of Enso with rapid development of warmth in the subsurface developing in the spring after a mod/strong La Niña winter? Also how significant is this, It seems like it is at least somewhat significant but I’m not really sure what strength El Niño it is signaling could surface in the future.

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