Super El Nino may be coming.

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

shttps://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.nao.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table

NAO-ENSO correlation going back to 1948. 

From December 2013 - February 2019, we have had 19 straight Dec-Jan-Feb months of +NAO. This ties the record, going up and down in monthly-time, of August 2007-August 2012, 19 straight months Jun-Jul-Aug -NAO. From January 1990 - March 1995, we had 26/28 months Dec-Jan-Feb-Mar of +NAO (The lowest NAO monthly index in this time was -0.20). The third longest consecutive streak is March 1962 - March 1965, 13 straight months Dec-Jan-Feb-Mar NAO. What do these 3 periods have in common? 3 of the 4 strongest El Nino's of the last 70 occurred shortly after these.

Sep - Dec 1965 +2.0 El Nino, 0.4 years after months after 13-month streak. (4th strongest-3rd strongest)

Oct - Jan 1997/8 +2.4 El Nino, 2.4 years after 26/28-month streak. (2nd strongest-2nd strongest [You can also make a point for the aesthetics of this being the Strongest El Nino and the 28-month streak being the strongest because of how it carried over to the other months.])

Nov - Jan 2015/6 +2.6 El Nino, 2.7 years after 19-month streak. (strongest-strongest)

(It's actually linear if you graph these three events (strength-time).)

You furthermore, have an anomalous fake-out ENSO subsurface warming in the last few weeks. This could be a pre-sign of an El Nino coming like we saw with some factors in 1996 and 2001. 

It's not much data, but there is the possibility of a Super El Nino (depending on when the +NAO streak ends) in 2-3 years. 

EDIT: I looked over the data again, and found that there was another NAO-streak in November 1968 - January 1971 (Nov-Dec-Jan) of 12 straight months of -NAO. This was followed by [the missing] 3rd strongest El Nino on record +2.1 Oct 1972-Jan 1973, 1.7 years later. That makes 4/4 of all Strong El Nino events since 1948. Interesting equation when we currently have going the 2nd strongest streak. 

1st Strong El Nino: 2.7 years after a 5-year NAO streak. 

2nd Strong El Nino: 2.4 years after a 6-year NAO streak.

3rd Strongest El Nino: 1.7 years after a 4-year NAO streak. 

4th Strongest El Nino: 0.4 years after 3-year NAO streak. 

Current 6-year NAO streak. 

 

A few more notes.. ENSO subsurface this Spring is acting like 2014 (2015-16 was the Strong El Nino, after a 2014-2015 Weak Nino). It's clear that we are going into a 2-year Nino. The other times we had positive ENSO for extended periods, and no negative ENSO, were leading up to big events, although there was always a break first. 

1990-1995 was a 5-year Neutral/Nino before 1997. (+2-3 years later)

1976-1980 was a 4-year Nino/Neutral before 1983. (+2-3 years later)

1965-1970 was a 5-year Nino/Neutral/negNeutral before 1972. (+2-3 years later)

1957-1959 was a 2-year El Nino, then 4 years of Neutral, before 1965. (+2-5 years later)

1951-1954 was a 3 year Nino/Neutral before 1957. (+3 years later)

*2015 is the only Strong El Nino that didn't follow this pattern. The Strong periods otherwise, all had Nino/Neutral extended periods years before the big event. Assuming 2019-2020 is El Nino, but not strong, that makes this the 6th time 2 El Nino's (but not Strong) happened within a 4 year period (with no La Nina's)... All 6/6 had a 1.6> El Nino event happen a few years later. *09-10 was the weakest example, and that is most recent (4 years after 02-05). 

In conclusion, a Strong to Super El Nino is likely to happen sometime between 2019 and 2024/5. It might be this year, although different things would be happening if it were to be record breaking. If it's not this year, we are likely to see a Neutral or weak-moderate La Nina period before going into it a few years from now. The NAO streak is still active and going.