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Roger Smith

May 2017 temperature forecast (and seasonal max for 2017) contest

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<<< --- FINAL REPORT on SNOWFALL CONTEST 2016-17 --->>>

 

The first table is the assumed final standings showing total errors to date. Errors in red  represent forecasts that are higher than actual amounts, and where errors could increase with any further snow (the season officially ends June 30, only DEN has any chance of snow in June and current models suggest very little chance, in fact, no snow fell in May there.)

Errors in black are cases where you haven't reached your predicted value yet and these errors could decrease (until you do reach your target). Your total error is shown in the last column. This table will still be updated whenever snow falls at DEN but nobody is within 7" of using up their DEN forecasts so we can assume this table is a final report even if these numbers all change slightly.

Meanwhile, the second table is the table of forecasts from November.

 

 

FORECASTER ____________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA ___ TOTAL error

 

___ Amount to date _______ 3.4 _ 30.2 _ 47.6 ___ 26.1 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ 19.4 __ 0.0 _ 11.2

 

Mercurial ________________13.1" _ 1.8" _ 2.5" __ 24.2" _ 0.0" _ 0.0" ___ 13.4" _ 0.0" _ 2.3" ____57.3

RodneyS ________________ 7.7" _12.1"_22.5" ___ 9.0" _ 0.0" _ 0.0" ____ 7.3" _ 0.0" _ 4.1" ____ 62.7

Maxim__________________ 19.2" _ 9.0" _ 2.5" ___ 3.9" _ 1.5" _ 0.0" ___ 25.9" _ 0.0" _ 2.2" ____ 64.2

hudsonvalley21 ___________16.4" _ 0.7" _ 4.7" __ 20.3" _ 0.4" _ 0.0" ___ 30.2" _ 0.0" _ 0.1" ____ 65.7

BTRwx ___________________9.1" _ 6.2" _ 5.6" __ 18.9" _ 0.3" _ 0.0" ___ 26.2" _ 0.0" _ 0.2" ____66.5

 

Consensus ______________ 14.8" _ 2.9" _ 3.0" __ 15.8" _ 1.0" _ 0.0" ___ 28.3" _ 0.0" _ 2.2" ___ 68.0

Normal ______________12.0"_ 4.4"3.8" __ 10.2"_2.9"_0.1" __ 32.0" _0.0"_4.4" ___ 69.8

 

wxallannj _______________ 19.3" _ 1.0" _ 5.6"  ___ 9.9" _ 5.7"__ 0.2" ___ 25.5" _ 0.0" _ 3.4" ____ 70.6

Damage in Tolland _______ 11.6" _ 4.8" _24.4" __ 16.9" _ 1.0" _ 0.0" ____ 8.2" _ 0.0" _ 7.2" ___ 74.1

Stebo ___________________14.9" _ 2.4" _ 7.7" __ 22.6" _ 0.8" _ 0.0" ___ 26.4" _ 0.0" _ 1.3" ____ 76.1

BKViking ________________12.6" __9.8" _ 9.4" ___ 6.9" _ 2.0" _ 0.0" ___ 33.4" _ 0.0" _ 2.2" ___ 76.1 

RJay ___________________ 13.6" _ 4.8" _12.4" ___ 8.9" _ 1.0" _ 0.0" ___ 38.2" _ 0.0" _ 1.2" ___ 80.1

Midlo Snow Maker ________ 14.6" _ 4.8" _17.4" __ 18.9" _ 3.0" _ 0.0" ___ 26.2" _ 0.1" _ 2.2" ___ 87.2

SD _____________________ 9.6" _ 9.2" _12.6" __ 13.9" _ 1.0" _ 0.0" ___ 43.2" _ 2.0" _ 1.2" ____92.7

dmillz25 ________________ 13.6" _ 8.8" _ 5.4" __ 24.9" _ 2.0" _ 0.0" ___ 39.2" _ 0.0" _ 2.2" ___ 96.1

Mallow _________________ 29.6" _12.3" _ 3.5" __ 14.6" _ 1.5" _ 0.0" ___ 33.7" _ 0.0" _10.1"___105.3

wxdude64 _______________16.5" _ 0.6" _ 6.5" __ 30.6" _ 2.7" _ 0.5"___ 55.7" _ 0.0" _ 6.4" ____119.5

DonSutherland.1 _________ 18.1" _ 1.5" _14.3" __ 18.8" _ 1.8" _ 0.0" ___ 57.7"_ 0.0" _ 7.4" ____119.6

Tom ___________________ 18.7" _ 6.6" _17.0" __ 31.8"_ 0.9" _ 0.0" ___ 41.3" _ 0.0" _ 5.8" ____122.1
 

Roger Smith _____________ 32.3"_18.4" _27.5" __ 13.7" _ 2.0" _ 0.1" ___ 26.2" _ 0.0" _ 4.3" ____125.5

_______________________________________________________________________________________________

 

Actual forecasts

 

FORECASTER ____________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

 

RodneyS ________________11.1" _18.1" _25.1" __ 35.1" _ 0.0" _ 0.0" ___ 29.1" _ 0.0" _ 7.1"

BTRwx _________________ 12.5" _24.0" _42.0" __ 45.0" _ 0.3" _ 0.0" ___ 48.0" _ 0.0" _11.0"

SD _____________________13.0" _21.0" _35.0" __ 40.0" _ 1.0" _ 0.0" ___ 65.0" _2.0" _10.0"   

Damage in Tolland ________15.0" _35.0" _72.0" __ 43.0" _ 1.0" _ 0.0" ___ 30.0" _ 0.0" _ 4.0"

 

Normal ______________15.4"_25.8"_43.8" __ 36.3"_2.9"_0.1" __ 53.8" _0.0"_6.8"

 

BKViking ________________16.0" _40.0" _ 57.0" __ 33.0" _ 2.0" _ 0.0" ___ 55.0" _ 0.0" _ 9.0"

Mercurial ________________16.5" _28.4" _45.1" __ 50.3" _ 0.0" _ 0.0" ___ 35.2" _ 0.0" _ 8.9"

RJay ___________________ 17.0" _35.0" _60.0" __ 35.0" _ 1.0" _ 0.0" ___ 60.0" _ 0.0" _10.0"

dmillz25 ________________ 17.0" _39.0" _53.0" __ 51.0" _ 2.0" _ 0.0" ___ 61.0" _ 0.0" _ 9.0"

Midlo Snow Maker ________ 18.0" _35.0" _65.0" __ 45.0" _ 3.0" _ 0.0" ___ 48.0" _ 0.1" _ 9.0"

 

Consensus ______________ 18.2" _33.1" _50.6" __ 41.9" _ 1.0" _ 0.0" ___ 50.1" _ 0.0" _ 9.0"

 

Stebo ___________________18.3" _27.8" _39.9" __ 48.7" _ 0.8" _ 0.0" ___ 48.2" _ 0.0" _12.5"

hudsonvalley21 ___________19.8" _30.9" _42.9" __ 39.3" _ 0.4" _ 0.0" ___ 52.0" _ 0.0" _11.1"

wxdude64 _______________19.9" _30.8" _41.1" __ 56.7" _ 2.7" _ 0.5"___ 77.5" _ 0.0" _ 4.8"

DonSutherland.1 _________ 21.5" _31.7" _61.9" __ 44.9" _ 1.8" _ 0.0" ___ 79.5"_ 0.0" _ 3.8"

Tom ___________________ 22.1" _36.8" _64.6" __ 57.9"_ 0.9" _ 0.0" ___ 63.1" _ 0.0" _ 5.4"

Maxim__________________ 22.6" _39.2" _50.1" __ 30.0" _ 1.5" _ 0.0" ___ 47.7" _ 0.0" _13.4"

wxallannj _______________ 22.7" _31.2" _42.0" __ 36.0" _ 5.7"_ 0.2" ___ 47.3" _ 0.0" _ 7.8"

Mallow _________________ 33.0" _42.5" _51.1" __ 40.7" _ 1.5" _ 0.0" ___ 55.5" _ 0.0" _ 1.1"

Roger Smith _____________ 35.7"_49.0"_75.5"__ 40.0" _ 2.0" _ 0.1" ___ 48.0" _ 0.0"_15.5"

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Four Seasons contest update (spring 2017)

Forgot to update this sub-contest after May results. This shows the points awarded for March-April-May totals and combines with winter 2016-17 as reported in February.  Only scores from those who entered two of three spring months are shown in this table. Scores marked * are for two of three months only. These would probably have gained some points in this contest at the rate of scoring, had they played all three months.

 

SPRING 2017

Original six (eastern and central) _____ Western ______________________ All Nine

Rank_Forecaster _ Total  _ Points ____ Rank_Forecaster _ Total _ Points ___Rank_Forecaster _ Total _ Pts

 1 _ _ RodneyS ___1015 ___10 ______1 _ _ H2OTown_Wx _651 __10 ____ 1 _ _ RodneyS __ 1598 _ 10

 2 _ _ DonS _____ 1000 ___ 7 ______ 2 _ _ RJay ________ 603 ___ 7 ____ 2 _ _ DonS _____ 1554 __ 7

 3 _ _ Damage in T_956 ___ 6 ______ 3 _ _ wxallannj  ____ 598 ___ 6 ____ 3 _ _H2OTown_Wx 1537_ 6

 4 _ _ Tom _______930 ___ 5 ______ 4 _ _ Roger Smith___ 592 ___ 5 ____ 4 _ _ Dmillz25 __ 1505 __ 5

 5 _ _ blazess556 __920 ___ 4 ______ 5 _ _ Dmillz25______ 591 ___ 4 ____ 5 _ _ Tom _____ 1490 __ 4

 6 _ _ Dmillz25 ____914 ___ 3 ______ 6 _ _ RodneyS _____ 583 ___ 3 ____ 6 _ _ wxallannj__ 1480 __ 3

 7 _ _ wxdude64 __ 896 ___ 2 ______ 7_ _ SD ___________561 ___ 2 ____ 7 _ _ Damage in T 1469 __ 2

 8 _ _ BKViking ___ 893 ___ 1 ______ 8 _ _ Tom _________ 560 ___ 1 ____ 8 _ _ BKViking ___1418 __ 1

 9 _ _ H2OTown_Wx 886 __ 1 ______ 9 _ _ DonSutherland _554 ___ 1 ____ 9 _ _ SD ________1414 __ 1 

10 _ _ wxallannj ___ 882 __ 1 ______10 _ _ BKViking ______525 ___ 1  ___10 _ _RJay ______ 1411 __ 1 

11 _ _ SD ________ 853 __ -- ______11 _ _ Damage in T __ 513 ___ -- ___ 11 _ _wxdude64 __1365 __ -- 

12 _ _ Stebo ______ 834 __ -- ______12 _ _ hudsonvalley21_472 ___ --___ 12 _ _blazess556 _ 1328 __ --

13 _ _ RJay _______ 808 __ -- ______13 _ _ wxdude64 ____ 469 ___ -- ___13 _ _hudsonv 21 _ 1269 __ --

14 _ _ hudsonv21__ 797 __ -- ______ 14 _ _so_whats_happ*_448___ -- ___14 _ _Stebo _____ 1255 __ --

15 _ _ neckbeard*_ 728 __ -- ______ 15 _ _ neckbeard93* __423 ___ -- ___15 _ _Roger Smith _1246 __ --

16 _ _ Roger Smith  654 __ -- ______ 16_ _ Stebo _________421 ___ -- ___16 _ _neckbeard*__1171 __ --

17 _ _ sowhatshap*_426 __ -- _____ 17 _ _ blazess556 _____408 ___ -- ___17 _ _sowhatshap*_ 874 __ --

 

 6 _ _ Consensus__ 915 __ 3 _______ 6 _ _ Consensus______589 ___ 3_____ 5 _ _Consensus__ 1504 __ 4

11t_ _ Normal ____ 853 __ -- ______10 _ _ Normal ________ 534 ___ 1____ 11 _ _Normal ____1387 __ --

 

WINTER 2016-2017

Original six (eastern and central) _____ Western ______________________ All Nine

Rank_Forecaster _ Total  _ Points ____ Rank_Forecaster _ Total _ Points ___Rank_Forecaster _ Total _ Pts

 1 _ _ RJay _______ 885 ___ 10 ______1 _ _ RJay ______ 674 ___ 10 _____ 1 _ _ RJay _______ 1559 _ 10

 2 _ _ Blazess556 __ 796 ___ 7 ______ 2 _ _ DonSutherland_634__ 7 ______2 _ _ Blazess556 ___1413 __ 7

 3 _ _ DonSutherland 752 ___ 6 ______ 3 _ _ dmillz25 ___ 628___ 6 ______ 3 _ _ DonSutherland 1386 __ 6

 4 _ _Maxim _______740 ___ 5 ______ 4 _ _ Blazess556 _ 617___ 5 ______ 4 _ _ Maxim ______ 1294 __ 5

 5 _ _ BKViking ____ 701 ___ 4 ______ t5 _ _Stebo _____ 614 ___ 4 ______ 5 _ _ BKViking ____ 1276 __ 4

 6 _ _Stebo _______ 609 ___ 3 ______ t5 _ _Tom _______610 ___ 4 ______ 6 _ _dmillz25 ____ 1224 __ 3

 7 _ _ Damage in T_ 605 ___ 2 ______ 7 _ _ BKViking ____575 ___ 2 ______ 7 _ _ Stebo ______1223 __ 2

 8 _ _ dmillz25 ____ 601 ___ 1 ______ 8 _ _ Damage in T_ 574 ___ 1 ______ 8 _ _ Damage in T_ 1179 __ 1

 9 _ _ wxallannj ____595 ___ 1 ______ 9 _ _ wxdude64 __ 560 ____ 1 _____t9 _ _ hudsonvalley _1124 __ 1

10 _ _ hudsonvalley_ 569 ___ 1 _____t10 _ _hudsonvalley_555 ____ 1 _____t9_ _ wxdude64 ___ 1124 __ 1

11 _ _ wxdude64___ 564 ___ - _____t10 _ _H2OTown_wx_555 ____1 _____11_ _ wxallannj ____ 1098 __ -

12 _ _ H2OTown_wx_511 ___ - ______12 _ _Maxim _____ 554 ____ - _____12_ _ H2OTown_wx_1066 __ -

13 _ _ so_whats_hap_499 ___ - _____ 13 _ _Roger Smith_ 508____ - _____ 13_ _ Tom ________1037 __ -

14 _ _ RodneyS ____ 491 ___ - ______14 _ _RodneyS ____506____ - _____14_ _ so_whats_hap_1003 __ -

15 _ _ SD ________  459 ___ - ______15 _ _so_whats_hap 504____ - _____15_ _ RodneyS _____ 997 __ -

16 _ _ Prestige WW _452* ___ - ______16 _ _wxallannj __ 503_____- _____16_ _ SD __________ 935 __ -

17 _ _ Tom _______ 427 ____ - ______17 _ _SD ________476 ____ - _____17_ _ Roger Smith ___865 __ -

18 _ _ Roger Smith _ 357 ___ - ______18 _ _Prestige WW_363*____ - _____18_ _ Prestige WW__ 815* _ -

 

 7_ _ Consensus __ 608 ___ 2 ______ 7 _ _Consensus __ 583 ____ 2 _____ 8_ _ Consensus ___ 1191 __ 1

19 _ _ Normal_____ 324 ___ - ______18 _ _Normal _____446 ____ - _____19_ _ Normal ______ 770 __ -

* Prestige Worldwide missed Dec 2016, ranked 2nd, 13th and 3rd for Jan-Feb

 

TOTAL POINTS (winter + spring)

Original Six ___________________ Western ________________________ All Nine

DonSutherland1 ___ 13 _________ RJay ___________ 17 _____________ DonSutherland1 ____ 13

Blazess556 _______ 11 _________ H2OTown__Wx___ 11 _____________ RJay ______________11

RodneyS _________ 10 _________ Dmillz25 ________ 10 _____________ RodneyS ___________10

RJay ____________ 10 __________DonSutherland1 ___8 _____________  DMillz25 ____________8

Damage in Tolland __8 __________wxallannj ________ 6 _____________ Blazess556 __________ 7

Tom _____________ 5 __________ Roger Smith _____ 5 _____________ H2OTown__ Wx ______ 6

BKViking __________ 5 __________blazess556 ______ 5 _____________  Maxim ______________ 5

Maxim ____________ 5 __________Tom  __________ 5 ______________ BKViking ____________ 5

Dmillz25 __________ 4 __________ Stebo __________ 4 _____________ Tom ________________ 4

Stebo _____________3 __________ RodneyS _______ 3 _____________ Damage in Tolland _____ 3

wxdude64 _________ 2 __________ BKViking _______ 3 _____________ wxallannj ____________ 3

wxallannj __________2 __________ SD ____________ 2 _____________ Stebo _______________ 2

H2OTown_Wx ______1 __________ Damage in Tol ___ 1 _____________ hudsonvalley21 _______ 1

hudsonvalley21 _____ 1 _________ hudsonvalley21 ___ 1 _____________ wxdude64 ___________ 1
_____________________________ wxdude64 ________1 _____________ SD _________________ 1
 
Consensus _________ 5 _________ Consensus _______ 5 _____________ Consensus ___________ 5
Normal ____________ 0 _________ Normal _________ 1 ______________ Normal _____________ 0

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