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GFDL/HMON

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Public Information Statement 17-07

National Weather Service Headquarters Silver Spring MD

1200 PM EST Mon Feb 13 2017

 

To:      Subscribers:

         -NOAA Weather Wire Service

         -Emergency Managers Weather Information Network

         -NOAAPORT

         Other NWS Partners, Users and Employees

 

From:    John Derber

         Acting Mesoscale Modeling Branch Chief

         NCEP/Environmental Modeling Center

 

Subject: Soliciting Public Comments on the Removal of GFDL

         Hurricane Model Products and Addition of New HMON

         Hurricane Model Products through March 17, 2017

 

The National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) is

proposing to retire the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory

(GFDL) Hurricane Model (GHM) and replace it with a new NOAA

Environmental Modeling System (NEMS)-based hurricane model called

HMON (Hurricanes in a Multi-scale Ocean-coupled Non-hydrostatic)

in NCEP operations. The NWS is seeking comments on these proposed

changes through March 17, 2017.

 

The primary reasons for retiring the legacy GFDL Hurricane Model

are based on:

 

1. The Environmental Modeling Center's (EMC) efforts towards

unification of operational models within the NEMS framework.

 

2. NHC's evaluation and endorsement of the new hurricane model

(HMON) through evaluation of three-year (2014-2016) retrospective

experiments run by EMC. HMON model consistently showed improved

performance for track and intensity skill for the North Atlantic

and Northeast Pacific Basins as compared to the legacy GFDL

hurricane model.

 

3. Retirement of key personnel at GFDL leading to a loss of

support for maintaining the GFDL Hurricane model in operations.

 

 

The timing of the proposed changes will be as follows:

 

1. The GHM will be discontinued on the date of the GFS2017

upgrade sometime in May 2017. Please reference the GFS SCN once

it is disseminated for the exact date. At that time, all GHM

products found on:

 - NCEP servers under hur.YYYYMMDD will be discontinued:

   http://nomads.ncep.noaa.gov/pub/data/nccf/com/hur/prod

   ftp://ftp.ncep.noaa.gov/pub/data/nccf/com/hur/prod

   www.ftp.ncep.noaa.gov/data/nccf/com/hur/prod

   Where YYYYMMDD is year, month and day

 - Model Analyses and Guidance will be discontinued:

   mag.ncep.noaa.gov

 

2. With the hurricane model upgrades slated for early June 2017,

NCEP will start delivering the new operational model, HMON, on

the NCEP servers. Please reference that SCN once it is

disseminated for product details and the exact date.

 

NWS will evaluate all comments to determine whether to proceed

with this change.

 

Send comments on this proposal to:

 

     Avichal Mehra

     Lead, Physical Scientist

     NCEP/Environmental Modeling Center

     College Park, MD

     Avichal.Mehra@noaa.gov

Or

 

     Carissa Klemmer

     NWS/NCEP Central Operations

     Dataflow Team Lead

     College Park, MD

     carissa.l.klemmer@noaa.gov

 

National Public Information Statements are online at:

 

   http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/notif.htm

 

NNNN

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regarding GFS upgrade & NHC's displeasure for Atlantic forecasting:

http://mashable.com/2017/03/10/hurricane-forecasts-suffer-gfs-model-upgrade/?utm_cid=hp-r-1#K3XptrNy6mq9

" In short, their argument is that no upgrade is better than a bad upgrade, and that if the upgrade goes forward as planned, forecasts will suffer. This could put millions of coastal residents in the path of a hurricane at risk, depending on the forecast error. "

 

Testing and evaluation of the GFS 2017

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/noor/GFS2017/GFS2017.htm

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