August 2016 temperature forecast contest

[Roger Smith]

Final countdown in this post, as previous post getting a bit long -- provisional scores continue to be updated above (posts 27 and 28) when there are any changes in these provisionals for end of month.

_______ (22d) _____ +4.7 _ +3.5 _ +4.0 __ +3.2 _ +3.0 _ +0.2 ___ --0.4 _ --1.3 _ +2.4

_______ (23d) _____ +4.4 _ +3.2 _ +3.8 __ +3.0 _ +3.0 _ +0.3 ___ --0.2 _ --1.6 _ +2.3

_______ (24d) _____ +4.2 _ +3.3 _ +3.9 __ +3.1 _ +2.9 _ +0.3 ___ --0.7 _ --1.7 _ +2.5

_______ (25d) _____ +4.1 _ +3.3 _ +4.0 __ +3.2 _ +2.9 _ +0.3 ___ --1.2 _ --1.7 _ +2.8

_______ (26d) _____ +4.3 _ +3.5 _ +4.3 __ +3.1 _ +3.0 _ +0.1 ___ --1.4 _ --1.8 _ +3.2

_______ (27d) _____ +4.4 _ +3.6 _ +4.3 __ +3.2 _ +3.1 _ +0.1 ___ --1.4 _ --1.9 _ +3.1

_______ (28d) _____ +4.5 _ +3.7 _ +4.2 __ +3.3 _ +3.2 __ 0.0 ___ --1.3 _ --2.0 _ +2.9

_______ (29d) _____ +4.6 _ +3.9 _ +4.4 __ +3.4 _ +3.2 _ --0.2 ___ --1.2 _ --2.0 _ +2.8

_______ (30d) _____ +4.6 _ +3.9 _ +4.2e__ +3.5 _ +3.2e_--0.1e___ --1.1e_ --1.7e_ +2.6e

_______ (31d) _____ +4.6 _ +4.0 _ +4.3 __ +3.4 _ +3.3 __ 0.0 ___ --1.3 _ --1.7 _ +2.6

THE FINAL VALUES ARE NOW SHOWN, MINOR SCORING ADJUSTMENTS AHEAD BUT ENTIRE FIELD WILL

MOVE IN LOCK STEP EXCEPT THAT RODNEYS WILL BENEFIT FROM THE HIGHER ATL VALUE.

 

 

[Roger Smith]

edit Sept 5 06z) Based on confirmed August values, all nine stations qualify for an Extreme Forecast award this month.

DCA will go to Danger in Tolland (+3.5) .

NYC will be shared by Rjay and Dmillz25 (+3.0).

BOS will also go to Rjay (+3.0).

ORD will be shared by Rjay and Dmillz25 (+3.0) . 

ATL is now a win for RodneyS who was closest to the actual (+3.3) with his forecast of +3.8.

IAH at 0.0, Rjay (also Normal) win, RodneyS loss. This was the only one of the nine that did not have the winner with the extreme forecast.

DEN has finished at -1.3 with blazess556 winning with -0.9 the lowest forecast.

PHX finished at -1.7 and Roger Smith has low forecast here with -0.5. 

SEA is running warm yet again and Midlo Snow Maker at +2.1 has the win (finished at +2.6).

 

Updated Standings 

 

Damage in Tolland ____5-0

Midlo Snow Maker ____5-1

RodneyS ___________ 5-3*

Rjay _______________ 4-2

Tenman Johnson _____3-0

DonSutherland.1 _____ 3-0

Maxim ______________3-1

wxallannj ___________ 2-0

ksammut ___________ 2-0

Roger Smith _________3-2

dmillz25 ____________ 2-0

Blazess556 __________2-0

Normal _____________ 2-0

hudsonvalley21 ______ 1-0

BKViking ___________ 1-0

OHweather __________1-0

Mallow _____________ 1-0

debeaches __________ 0-3

 

*plus one "no decision" __ RodneyS and Quincy (they were closer by forecast back in April, but lost on time penalties to the high scores.

- - - - - - - - -

If you're wondering, the now final scores for August are back in post 27 and the updated annual scoring now follows this post.

The seasonal max contest is also updated back in post 26. The final anomaly countdown can be found in the previous post (31). 

[Roger Smith]

===<<<< UPDATED ANNUAL SCORING JANUARY to AUGUST 2016 >>>>===

 

FORECASTER _____ DCA_NYC_BOS __ east ___ ORD_ATL_IAH __ cent __ TOTAL __ Best scores

 

01 RodneyS ________ 585 . 578 . 548 __ 1711 ___ 487 . 578 . 610 __ 1675 ___ 3386 __ 221031 . 2 . 1

02 wxdude64 _______ 544 . 585 . 562 __ 1691 ___ 526 . 558 . 564 __ 1648 ___ 3339 __ 111111 .1 . 0

03 DonSutherland.1 __ 523 . 605 . 524 __ 1652 ___ 503 . 552 . 600 __ 1655 ___ 3307 __ 010011 . 1. 1 ..MAY

04 BKViking ________ 461 . 576 . 517 __ 1554 ___ 599 . 585 . 529 __ 1713 ___ 3267 __ 000210 . 0 . 1 ..JAN

05 hudsonvalley21 ___ 521 . 566 . 530 __ 1617 ___ 630 . 544 . 470 __ 1644 ___ 3261 __ 000100 . 0 . 0

 

06 Consensus_______ 539 . 582 . 504 __ 1625 ___ 516 . 570 . 540 __ 1626 ___ 3251 __ 000000 . 0 . 0

 

06 Mallow___________485 . 582 . 536 __ 1603 ___ 528 . 468 . 576 __ 1572 ___ 3175 __ 100001 . 0 . 0

07 Damage in Tolland _561 . 550 . 520 __ 1631 ___ 466 . 594 . 446 __ 1506 ___ 3137 __ 201010 . 0 . 1..JUL

08 blazess556 _______475 . 564 . 526 __ 1565 ___ 423 . 591 . 532 __ 1546 ___ 3111 __ 000011 . 0 . 0

09 wxallannj ________ 493 . 550 . 516 __ 1559 ___ 494 . 486 . 558 __ 1538 ___ 3097 __ 010100 . 0 . 1 ..APR

10 OHweather _______487 . 607 . 559 __ 1653 ___ 397 . 541 . 484 __ 1422 ___ 3075 __ 000010. 0 . 0

 

11 Maxim __________445 . 514 . 620 __ 1579 ___ 388 . 518 . 554 __ 1460 ___ 3039 __ 102001 . 1 . 1 ..MAR

12 Rjay ____________532 . 501 . 459 __ 1492 ___ 479 . 591 . 445 __ 1515 ___ 3007 __ 111111 . 1 . 1 ..AUG

13 SD _____________ 469 . 540 . 466 __ 1475 ___ 488 . 508 . 532 __ 1528 ___ 3003 __ 000110. 0 . 0

14 Stebo___________ 478 . 459 . 438 __ 1375 ___ 436 . 551 . 538 __ 1525 ___ 2900 __ 000001 . 1 . 1

15 Roger Smith _____ 493 . 460 . 444 __ 1397 ___ 422 . 500 . 536 __ 1458 ___ 2855 __ 200001 . 0 . 0

16 MidloSnowMaker__ 444 . 494 . 484 __ 1422 ___ 498 . 500 . 431 __ 1429 ___ 2851 __ 011010 . 1 . 0 ..FEB

17 dmillz25_________ 468 . 480 . 428 __ 1376 ___ 500 . 536 . 418 __ 1454 ___ 2830 __ 110200 . 0 . 0

18 Tenman Johnson _ 473 . 464 . 470 __ 1407 ___ 490 . 480 . 444 __ 1414 ___ 2821 __ 210100 . 1 . 0

 

19 Normal__________ 446 . 460 . 398 __ 1304 ___ 442 . 390 . 560 __ 1392 ___ 2696 __ 000001 . 1 . 0

 

19 Tom____________ 451 . 460 . 414 __ 1325 ___ 398 . 460 . 496 __ 1354 ___ 2679 __ 000000 . 0 . 1 .. JUN

20 ksammut* _______ 413 . 397 . 360 __ 1170 ___ 269 . 338 . 346 ___ 953 ___ 2123 __ 111001 . 1 . 0

______________________________________________

* missed two months (July, August) ... other partial scores can be found in earlier tables. 

[Roger Smith]

== <<< Updated  Annual Scoring for western and all nine contests Jan to Aug 2016 >>> ==

 

FORECASTER __________ DEN_PHX_SEA __ TOTALS _ best scores (mo) _ All Nine Totals __ best scores

 

01 wxallannj _____________ 456 _ 490 _ 590 ____ 1536 ______ 0 0 1 _______4633 (= 5) ___ APR

01 DonSutherland.1 _______ 448 _ 446 _ 642 ____ 1536 ______ 0 0 2 _ Apr __4843 (= 1) ___ MAY

 

03 Consensus ___________ 483 _ 444 _ 536 ____ 1464 ______ 0 0 1 _ Jul ___ 4715 (= 3) ___ JUL

 

03 Midlo Snow Maker______ 419 _ 419 _ 618 ____ 1456 ______ 1 0 2 _ Mar __ 4307 (=13) ___ FEB

04 hudsonvalley21 ________ 491 _ 424 _ 507 ____ 1422 ______ 0 1 0 _ Jul __ 4683 (= 3)

05 wxdude64 ____________ 445 _ 449 _ 516 ____ 1410 ______ 0 1 2 _ Jan __ 4749 (= 2) ___ JAN

06 Mallow _______________366 _ 433 _ 608 ____ 1407 ______ 0 1 0 _______ 4582 (= 6)

07 Damage in Tolland _____ 433 _ 382 _ 584 ____ 1399 ______ 1 0 1 _ Jun __ 4536 (= 8) ___ JUN

08 OHweather ___________ 410 _ 464 _ 484 ____ 1358 ______ 1 0 1 _ Jul  __ 4433 (= 9) ___ JUL

09 Rjay _________________390 _ 425 _ 523 ____ 1338 ______ 0 0 1 _______ 4345 (=11) ___ AUG

10 Maxim _______________ 306 _ 430 _ 576 ____ 1312 ______ 0 1 1 _______ 4351 (=10) ___ MAR

 

11 BKViking _____________ 430 _ 388 _ 490 ____ 1308 ______ 0 0 0 _______ 4575 (= 7)

12 Roger Smith __________ 298 _ 474 _ 524 ____ 1296 ______ 0 2 0 _ Aug __ 4151 (=15)

13 Tenman Johnson _______ 459 _ 468 _ 326 ____1253 ______ 2 1 1 _ Feb __ 4074 (=16)

14 RodneyS _____________ 399 _ 391 _ 460 ____ 1250 ______ 2 0 0 _ May __ 4636 (= 4)

15 blazess556 ____________ 417 _ 405 _ 404 ____1226 ______ 1 0 0 _______ 4337 (=12)

16 SD ___________________412 _ 366 _ 392 ____1170 ______ 0 0 1 _  Jul  __ 4173 (=14)

 

17 Normal _______________ 462 _ 380 _ 326 ____ 1168 _____ 1 0 0 _ Aug ___ 3864 (=18)

 

17 Tom __________________ 401 _ 389 _ 362 ____1152 _____ 0 0 0 _______ 3831 (=18)

18 dmillz25 _______________ 365 _ 302 _ 464 ____1131 _____ 0 0 0 _______ 3961 (=17)

19 Stebo ________________ 345 _ 330 _ 218 _____ 893 _____ 0 0 0 _______ 3793 (=19)

20 ksammut* _____________ 306 _ 322 _ 220 _____ 848 _____ 0 1 0 _______ 2971 (=20)

 

______________________________________________________

* missed two months (July, August) >> other part-time entrants are listed in earlier annual reports.

 

[Roger Smith]

All August and annual scoring updated, congrats to RodneyS for taking the lead in the annual (original six), while wxallannj and Don Sutherland share the western lead, overall it is Don Sutherland followed by wxdude64.

Also, congrats to Rjay for winning August (original six and all nine total, as well as both eastern and central subtotals), and no mention required for the western winner, oh I overlooked Normal, way to go Normal, you share the win in the west. 

Notes in passing ...

We have achieved parity now in scoring for eastern and central, the consensus scores are almost identical, and of the regular 19 entrants, 8 have higher scores in the east, 11 in central. It appears that the lower half of the table does relatively poorly in the eastern because many of the central higher scores are from 11-19. Normal is the same way which indicates the central three have been closer to zero anomalies in general (IAH the main culprit there).

Looking at western totals, the only forecaster who has a higher annual western total than either or both of their eastern/central is Midlo Snow Maker who is running ahead of both of those, one or two come close for one or the other (wxallannj is two points lower on his tied-for-lead western total vs his central total). Normal is running lower telling us that the western three have been somewhat more variable so far this year (DEN and SEA mostly). We are all generally on a learning curve for the western three. 

[Roger Smith]

Four Seasons Awards 2015-16 ... Updated Standings for Winter, Spring and Summer 2015-16

 

These total scores from June, July and August 2016 determine points awarded in the Four Seasons competition. To qualify, a forecaster must forecast all three months. It's ten points to the winner, seven for second place, and counting down from there until reaching 8th, 9th and 10th place which all get one point. Normal and Consensus are scored but then ignored in terms of points for lower-finishing forecasters.

There are three separate contests within this section, the "main" contest (six locations), the western contest, and for all nine. The table is arranged so that scores are in order for the main (six not including west) contest, they may be in different orders for the other two (west alone and all nine), and for total points to date. Points from the winter and spring seasons are shown (in brackets) together with the new points earned in summer, and the current contest totals. An entry of -- in scoring means no points gained.

Your three-season totals are shown in BLUE numbers now, leaders are in RED, all the other numbers are your various seasonal scores.

 

FORECASTER

............../ Main contest total score __ Points .../////// Western total __ Points ...///// All Nine ____ Points

._._.__.._..._. summer .... (win) (spr) summer TOT .. summer .. (win)  (spr) sum . TOT .. summer .. (win)  (spr) . TOT

 

Rodney S ________1432__ (1) _ (2) _10__13 _^_ 482 __---_(10)_ -- _ 10 _^_ 1914 __--- _ (6) _ 6 __12

Damage in Tolland _1364__ (1) _ -- __ 7 __ 8 _^_ 562 __ (5) _ -- _ 1 __ 6 _^_ 1926 __ (4) _ -- _ 7 __ 11

wxdude64 _______ 1342__ -- _ (1) __ 6 __ 7 _^_ 544 __ -- _ (2) _ -- __ 2 _^_ 1886 __ -- __ (2) _ 4 __6

Maxim __________ 1330__ --- _ (4) _ 5 __ 9 _^_ 522 ___ -- _ 1 _ --  __ 1 _^_ 1852 __ -- __ (3) _ 1 __ 4

 

Consensus ______ 1316__ -- _ (1) __ 4 __ 5 _^_ 592 __ (5) _ (3) _ 1 __9 _^_ 1908 __ (2) _ (4) _ 5 __11

 

hudsonvalley21 ___1310__ (7) _(1) _ 4 __12 _^_ 584 __ -- _ (4) _ 1 __ 5 _^_ 1894 __ (3) _ (1) _ 5 __ 9

dmillz25 _________1292 __ (3) _ -- _ 3 __ 6 _^_ 450 __ (10)_ -- _ -- _10 _^_ 1742 __(10) _ -- _ -- __10

Rjay ____________1288 __ (1) _ -- _ 2 __ 3 _^_ 644 __ (7) _ -- _ 7 __14 _^_ 1932__ (7) __ --_ 10 _ 17

OHweather ______ 1286__ --- _ (3) _ 1 __ 4 _^_ 594 __ (1) _ -- _ 3 __ 4 _^_ 1880 __ -- __ (1) _ 3 __ 4

Tenman Johnson __1248 __ -- __ -- _ 1 __ 1 _^_ 552 __ -- __ -- _ -- __ 0 _^_ 1800 __ -- __ -- _ -- ___0

BKViking ________ 1241__ --- _ (5) _ 1 __ 6 _^_ 499 __ (6) _ (1) _ --__ 7 _^_ 1740 __ -- _ (4) _ -- __ 4

blazess556 ______ 1239__ -- __ -- __ -- __ 0 _^_ 593 __ -- __ -- _ 2 __ 2 _^_ 1832 __ (1) __-- _ 1 __ 2

Stebo ___________1224 __ -- __ -- _ -- __ 0 _^_ 422 __ (2) __ --_ -- __ 2 _^_ 1646 __ -- __ -- _ -- __ 0

DonSutherland.1 __1220__ (7) _(10)_ --__17_^_ 600 ___ -- _ (7) _ 5 __12 _^_ 1820 __ (5)_(10) _1 _16

Tom ____________1206 __ -- __ -- _ -- __ 0 _^_ 460 __ (4) _ --- _ -- __ 4 _^_ 1666 __ -- __-- __ -- __ 0

SD _____________ 1202 __ -- __ -- _ -- __ 0 _^_ 530 __ (1) _ -- _ -- __ 1 _^_ 1732 __ (1) _  -- _ -- __ 1

Roger Smith _____ 1172__ -- _ (1) __ -- __ 1 _^_ 686 __ -- __ -- _10 __10 _^_ 1858 __ -- __ -- _ 2 __ 2

Mallow __________1162__ (4) _ (7) _ -- __11 _^_ 566 __ -- _ (1) _ 1 __ 2 _^_ 1728 __ (1) _ (5) _ -- _ 6

wxallannj ________1070__ (5) _ (6) _ -- __11 _^_ 618 __ (1)__ 6 _ 6 __13 _^_ 1688 __(2) _ (7) _ -- _ 9

 

Normal ___________ 920 __ -- __ -- _ -- __ 0 _^_ 480 __ -- _ -- _ -- ___ 0 _^_ 1400 __ -- __ -- __ --__ 0

 

Midlo Snow Maker __ 874_ (10) _ -- _ -- __10 _^_ 598 __ --- _ (3) _ 4 __ 7 _^_ 1472__ (6) _ (1) _ -- __ 7

 

ksammut ________  --- __ (2) __ -- _ -- __ 2 _^_ ---- __ --- __ (5) _ -- __ 5 _^_  -----__ --- __ --- _ --- __ 0

Isotherm _________ ---- __ -- __ -- _ -- __ 0 _^_ --- ___ (3) ___ -- _ -- __ 3 _^_ ----- __ --- __ --- _ --- __ 0