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When does the blocking break down ?


Mikehobbyst

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Please explain how we get this severe blocking episode to end or dissipate.  It can not go on forever.  Even if spring weather is delayed for three weeks, won't it eventually come in strong and suddenly in the third week of April, as it usually goes the other way when blocking eases and all of the cold air is recirculated and used.  Please explain what is seen 1-3 weeks out, and out to 2 months if possible.  Any real chance of a last KU event in the 3/20 to 3/31 range? and what prob of being a 1-2 foot snowfall to the beaches?  Thanks for insights.  I can see the near term event 3/18-3/19 laying down 2 inches to the LI coastline in sudden onset moderate snow that last 2-3 hours, that goes to IP for 30-60 minutes and to a cold rain w/ 36-41 F degrees the rest of evening and night. North of Merritt in CT and interior north of I-287 NY rapid gradient upward in snowfall, IP and ZR with some above freezing tainting at 850 /  925 levels and likely 29-32 surface. nuisance to major event 20-75 miles north of metro NYC.  My opinion on this anyways.

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Blocking appears to dominate overall for the next 2 weeks, perhaps longer. This will continue to yield temps below to much below normal.   It does appear there may be a brief warmup towards the end of the month on/around 29th.  Then another front and colder temps.  We saw a prolonged cool period in April 2007 and May 2008, that this reminds me of.  I suspect we will see much warmer (against the means) begin to show up for the second week of april.  Until then let it snow

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