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bluewave

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The GFS ensembles have been hinting that we could see an EPO drop around the middle of February.

 

 

The last three times that an -EPO pattern emerged during a -PDO La Nina-like pattern here in February

we had mixed precipitation storms.

 

2-18-2000

 

http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KNYC/2000/2/18/DailyHistory.html?req_city=NA&req_state=NA&req_statename=NA

 

 

2-18-2009

 

http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KNYC/2009/2/18/DailyHistory.html?req_city=NA&req_state=NA&req_statename=NA

 

 

 

2-02-11

 

http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KNYC/2011/2/2/DailyHistory.html?req_city=NA&req_state=NA&req_statename=NA

 

 

The main theme during this type of pattern is Arctic high pressure building over Canada

with the coldest temperatures remaining to our west. At the same time, there is just 

enough of a SE Ridge offshore to allow storms to track very close to the area. The

amount of CAD in place when the storm arrives determines how much liquid to frozen

precipitation we ultimately end up with here. I prepared a temperature composite

for the times this pattern emerged during February 2000, 2009, and 2011.

 

 

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The GFS ensembles have been hinting that we could see an EPO drop around the middle of February.

 

attachicon.gif compare.we.png

 

The last three times that an -EPO pattern emerged during a -PDO La Nina-like pattern here in February

we had mixed precipitation storms.

 

2-18-2000

 

http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KNYC/2000/2/18/DailyHistory.html?req_city=NA&req_state=NA&req_statename=NA

 

attachicon.gif 021821.png

 

2-18-2009

 

http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KNYC/2009/2/18/DailyHistory.html?req_city=NA&req_state=NA&req_statename=NA

 

attachicon.gif 2009.png

 

 

2-02-11

 

http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KNYC/2011/2/2/DailyHistory.html?req_city=NA&req_state=NA&req_statename=NA

 

attachicon.gif 2011.png

 

The main theme during this type of pattern is Arctic high pressure building over Canada

with the coldest temperatures remaining to our west. At the same time, there is just 

enough of a SE Ridge offshore to allow storms to track very close to the area. The

amount of CAD in place when the storm arrives determines how much liquid to frozen

precipitation we ultimately end up with here. I prepared a temperature composite

for the times this pattern emerged during February 2000, 2009, and 2011.

 

 

attachicon.gif temp.gif

How comparable were trhe NAO`s brother ?
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When the -EPO patterns emerged, the dominant blocking was on the Pacific side near Alaska.

My thouights are that as the center comes south and eat - NW changes back to acc snow .

I dismissed it yesterday when it was mentioned , but now i thnk if the Euro is right , rates may help if the system can get to the BM

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