hooralph Posted October 30, 2012 Share Posted October 30, 2012 As many people here noted the past several days, it had the highest rating in history - higher than Katrina. Tropical cyclone damage potential, as currently defined by the Saffir-Simpson scale and the maximum sustained surface wind speed in the storm, fails to consider the area impact of winds likely to force surge and waves or cause particular levels of damage. Integrated kinetic energy represents a framework that captures the physical process of ocean surface stress forcing waves and surge while also taking into account structural wind loading and the spatial coverage of the wind. Right... http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/ike/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted October 30, 2012 Share Posted October 30, 2012 As many people here noted the past several days, it had the highest rating in history - higher than Katrina. Tropical cyclone damage potential, as currently defined by the Saffir-Simpson scale and the maximum sustained surface wind speed in the storm, fails to consider the area impact of winds likely to force surge and waves or cause particular levels of damage. Integrated kinetic energy represents a framework that captures the physical process of ocean surface stress forcing waves and surge while also taking into account structural wind loading and the spatial coverage of the wind. Right... http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/ike/ I'll leave the technical aspects of your question to those much better qualified than me. However, it is my belief that the SS scale is part of the problem with regard to people not evacuating or taking storms seriously. When a cat 4 Charlie can hit FL and not be a big fuss 50 miles away, and a cat 1 Sandy can devastate over hundreds of miles, then we have a communication problem. Let's remember that communication issues for the most part belong to the communicator and not the listener. The SS scale, while useful for its intended purpose, is not useful as a gauge of a storms overall potential (surge, wind, flooding, scale) and thus not a good communications tool. As Einstein said, insanity is doing something over and over again and expecting different results. I believe we are at that moment of truth with regard to the SS scale as a communication tool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mello Posted October 30, 2012 Share Posted October 30, 2012 I think the fact that this storm was rated higher than Katrina using IKE shows why IKE is flawed. I think it would at least need to factor in tiers of winds above hurricane force and their max radii to properly show how much more powerful the most strongest tropical hurricanes are than storms like Sandy. Overall, I'm not sure a change is really needed or would help people. No matter what way you try to trick the public into taking actions they don't want, they will find reasons to ignore the warnings. The forecast for Sandy was about as good as it can get with our knowledge today. People, at least those in places that flooded, have no excuse that they didn't know what was coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted October 30, 2012 Share Posted October 30, 2012 I think the fact that this storm was rated higher than Katrina using IKE shows why IKE is flawed. If you remove the human induced damaged associated with Katrina (inadequate levees, poor evacuation planning, etc), it was no worse than Sandy, and likely on a smaller scale. That's just my opinion though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted October 30, 2012 Share Posted October 30, 2012 The exclusive focus on top sustained winds does nothing to indicate the danger in certain critical cases like this storm. A change would better inform the public which would in-turn save lives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mello Posted October 30, 2012 Share Posted October 30, 2012 If you remove the human induced damaged associated with Katrina (inadequate levees, poor evacuation planning, etc), it was no worse than Sandy, and likely on a smaller scale. That's just my opinion though. I believe the IKE comparison being made is between Katrina and Sandy at their max. Imagine a scenario (not that it's really possible) of Katrina making landfall at its Cat 5 peak in the same location as Sandy just did. The devastation near landfall would be many times higher and the lesser effects for some people well away from landfall wouldn't make up for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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