Potential severe threat on Friday?

[weatherwiz]

I know TNE started a thread in the main forum and I wasn't overly impressed with the 12z runs but the 0z GFS tonight is actually quite interesting.

First off, the 12z GFS was spitting out some pretty impressive instability numbers with SBCape values in the 2500-3500 J/KG range with LI values in the -6C to -8C range. When I first saw this I checked to see what the GFS was forecasting for dewpoint values and to no surprise the GFS seemed overdone as it painted dewpoints as high as 70-75F across much of PA/NJ. With this I felt that the instability was way overdone. Lapse rates did appear steep, however, which is something that can certainly increase instability. Shear looked pretty pathetic as well and with llvl winds coming from the NW that would lead to limited convergence.

Well the 0z GFS has rolled in and actually opened my eyes a bit. The GFS is still painting some very high instability values, in fact in some locations even higher than the 12z run and over a much more widespread area. I then and went to check the dewpoints and they actually seemed much more reasonable, in the mid 60's or so. Looking at some forecast soundings I noticed the GFS had a much steeper lapse rates environment with even hints of an EML breaking off from the Plains moving into the region which would certainly enhance instability. Looking at the synoptic pattern forecasted on the GFS that would support EML advancement into this region.

Shear also looks a bit more impressive on this run with stronger dynamics in place, however, the strongest is just too the north and across New England.

Anyways it will be interesting to see how the models handle this over the next few days. Looks like the strongest forcing/lift though could occur just a bit too far to the north but a weak boundary moving through could be enough to ignite convection.

[Billabong]

Haven't had a chance to look at much, but it doesn't look too thrilling. It's nice to see some decent instability back on the table though, but, at least how it stands now, were going to suffer dynamically. Directional shear looks awful, and speed shear is not much better. Pulse, ordinary cells, popcorn, suicidal thunderstorms, whichever you prefer, look to be the storm type. Lack of shear will cause the downdraft to collapse on the updraft and the storm dies not too long after initiation.

[weatherwiz]

Sure dynamics aren't very impressive and pulse storms would definitely be the mode, however, with a steep lapse rate environment in place and dry mid levels storms would certainly be capable of producing hail and microbursts when cores collapse.

[weatherwiz]

Nice stuff ongoing across western NYS right now. sfc-based instability may be lacking, however, you have some impressive elevated instability with MUcapes in the 1000-1500 J/KG range and K-Index in the lower 30's) and good shear...30-40 knots of 0-6 shear and helicity in the 250-450 range. mlvl lapse rates too between 6-6.5 C/KM. All favorable for some very nice hailers.