plains severe threat Feb 19th

[Thundersnow12]

12z NAM really has got alittle more bullish for some possible severe weather tomorrow evening in OK and into KS during the overnight hours. the cap is there but weaker the further north you go, instability and moisture has increased some from the 0z run with pretty nice looking wind fields and hodo's...something to watch.

really nice mid-level wind support

dew points in the low 60's

MLCAPE and SBCAPE values both >1000 j/kg

MUCAPE at 6z sunday

the earlier outlook did talk about wind profiles favoring supercells but the new outlook doesn't.

AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IN THE GREAT PLAINS TONIGHT WILL MOVE SLOWLY

EWD SATURDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE HIGH

PLAINS. IN RESPONSE...LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE SRN

AND CNTRL PLAINS AS MOISTURE RETURNS NWD INTO OK AND KS. ALTHOUGH

MODEL FORECASTS DEVELOP A POCKET OF MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS OK

SATURDAY AFTERNOON...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A STRONG CAP IN PLACE

WHICH WOULD PREVENT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE DAY. FURTHER

TO THE NORTH ACROSS KS AND NEB...THE CAP IS FORECAST TO BE WEAKER

AND LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SHOULD INCREASE SATURDAY EVENING AS THE EXIT

REGION OF A MID-LEVEL JET MOVES INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. THIS SHOULD

RESULT IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SATURDAY EVENING ON THE

NOSE OF A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL JET WITH CONVECTIVE COVERAGE

INCREASING DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY

STRONG THAT A LARGE CLUSTER OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP

IN THE CNTRL PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE

MODELS INCLUDING THE GFS AND NAM. IN SPITE OF A COOL BOUNDARY

LAYER...NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS NCNTRL KS SHOW

MUCAPE INCREASING TO THE 1500 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE. IN ADDITION TO THE

INSTABILITY...STRONG CLOUD LAYER SHEAR DUE TO THE APPROACHING

MID-LEVEL JET AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE

OF AN ISOLATED HAIL THREAT. THIS THREAT FOR HAIL MAY PERSIST THROUGH

DAYBREAK SUNDAY AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE SOUTH AND

CONVECTION MOVES EWD INTO THE MID-MO VALLEY.