Thanksgiving Weekend Lake-effect Snow

[ayuud]

18z nam

[danno]

As ususal, with no internet access at camp, I'm late to the game. Around Redfield, we were about 15-20 miles south of where the band set up Friday night. It came through with a vengence about 11:00 Sat. am but did not stick around. 3" Sat. and 1" Sun. Not bad, but maybe just the appetizer for Thur/Fri this week. Most impressive were the temps that never got above 35 on Thur/Fri or above freezing Sat/Sun. Even a skim of ice on the rez today befoe the wind blew.

[ayuud]

NWS BUF

"AS EVEN COLDER AIR ADVECTS ACROSS THE LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LAKE

EFFECT SNOW WILL BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DOWNWIND OF BOTH LAKES.

SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE FAIRLY WELL-ALIGNED

FLOW...AND DEEPER MOISTURE/MORE MODERATE WINDS THAN WERE EXPERIENCED

WITH OUR PREVIOUS EVENT. AS TO WHERE THE LAKE EFFECT MAY OCCUR...THE

NAM AND GFS SUGGESTS THAT A SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH

WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS COULD STEER SOME OF THE STEADIER LAKE SNOWS

NORTH TOWARD BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN."

"

THURSDAY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SHALL CONTINUE OFF BOTH LAKES. THE

LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE PREDOMINATE SOUTHWEST FLOW MAY

LINGER INTO THURSDAY...BEFORE THE WINDS SHIFT MORE TO THE WEST

THURSDAY NIGHT...CAUSING LAKE SNOWS TO SHIFT SOUTH OF

BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN. LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS REMAIN NEAR

10K FEET THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY...WINDS ALIGNED THROUGH 850 HPA

AND WITH MOISTURE REMAINING IN THE -12 TO -18C LAYER EXPECT GOOD

SNOW CRYSTAL GROWTH DEVELOPMENT. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE LIKELY POPS

THURSDAY DOWNWIND OF BOTH LAKES.

THE LARGE SCALE FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL FEATURE A LONGWAVE

NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST

US...WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TOWARDS BAFFIN ISLAND AND GREENLAND.

THIS FLOW IS TYPICAL OF A NEGATIVE NORTH ATLANTIC

OSCILLATION...WHICH WE ARE CURRENTLY IN. WITH THIS PATTERN WE EXPECT

A POOL OF COLD AIR OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST. THIS

WILL MAINTAIN THE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS...THOUGH

PASSING SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DISRUPT

ANY LES BANDS...BUT GIVE THE POSSIBILITIES OF A GENERAL SNOW SHOWER

EVERYWHERE.

WITH THIS HEMISPHERIC FLOW IN MIND EXPECT THESE LAKE EFFECT SNOW

SHOWERS TO CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT OFF BOTH LAKES AS

SFC OMEGA SUPPORTS SOME LIFT...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE SNOW

CRYSTAL GROWTH AREA REMAINS AND TEMPERATURES 5K ALOFT REMAIN AROUND

-8 TO -11C. WINDS UP THROUGH 10K FEET ALSO REMAIN UNDER 30 KNOTS

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL

RESIDENCE TIME AND INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD THAT THE LAKE SNOW BANDS

WILL MAINTAIN THEIR STRUCTURE.

12Z MODELS OF BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO

CUT UNDERNEATH THE COOL DOME OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH THE STORM

PASSING FROM THE UPPER PLAINS FRIDAY TO OUR SOUTH SATURDAY AND

SUNDAY. WILL ALLOW FOR LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER

SATURDAY NIGHT...THOUGH ANY CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY AND

SUNDAY WILL LIKELY BE MORE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ITSELF.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL FOR DAY TIME HIGHS

THROUGH THIS PERIOD. WITH SKIES REMAINING OVERCAST MUCH OF THE

TIME...NIGHT TIME TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND NORMAL."

[swva]

Great pics! I was wondering how much we got.

As ususal, with no internet access at camp, I'm late to the game. Around Redfield, we were about 15-20 miles south of where the band set up Friday night. It came through with a vengence about 11:00 Sat. am but did not stick around. 3" Sat. and 1" Sun. Not bad, but maybe just the appetizer for Thur/Fri this week. Most impressive were the temps that never got above 35 on Thur/Fri or above freezing Sat/Sun. Even a skim of ice on the rez today befoe the wind blew.