LVLion77

absolutely agree. Forecast models have continually failed with wind speed and direction since last year.  The LR and even the SR computer models need to be calibrated to not just look at temps and precip atmospheric profiles and soundings but should consider the most critical feature- the role of surface topography and overall natural physical geography of our area. 
For example when a SE to S direction fetch of wind is prevalent for hours or days, the models should compare the geography of the area and bias should be added for chances of higher precip values(especially in training t-storms or froneneis for snowfall predictions )  in certain regions of the entire forecast area for MT Holly.  The same goes with a direct east wind in which literally prevents t storms from from the west to cross over the Blue Mts. Physical Geography features plays a vital part in local forecasting for our area and atmospheric modeling needs to be vastly improved to include and or be more accurately biased when using pin point forecasting, especially with wind direction speed for upsloping and downsloping of the mountain ranges and deeper valleys.  Simplistic terms- need a better algorithm for physical geography features rather than just using transportation networks to identify different forecasts for different aras. Thats why Macungie to Huffs Church area are constantly having inaccurate forecasting  for either high or low temps and or precip values and types  because the pin-point forecast do not include the topography for S Mtn range as a dividing line for precip or for different forecasts.  Everything is now based on I-78, I-80 and PA turnpike transportation areas when formulating and discussing the local forecasts.
IMHO, MT Holly /NOAA needs to reconsider relying more on physical geography/topography when discussing LV forecasts and not  just referring to major transportation networks. FWIW, transportation networks literally bore through local mountain ranges by tunnels or by steep climbing lanes and built to go in different directions. I -78 is a perfect example of how dividing forecast areas is incorrect as it goes from SW to NE and then goes directly E to West. It literally bisects the S Mt Range in the heart of the LV.  The NE turnpike is a N to S directional road which is usually only brought into the picture on types of winter precip or from storms along the coast--- yet both of these highways go through the heart of the LV.. Hopefully you see the problem of using transportation networks as delimiting line for producing local forecasts in the LV. 
Best examples of my reasoning- how many times have you personally gone through the Lehigh Tunnel and on one side it is snowing and the other side it is clear?  How many times have you gone on RT 29/Rt 100 through  Shimerville or Huffs Church and it has 2 in of snow on the ground  but you get to the Macungie and Emmaus and or East Greenville  and it is raining? Physical Geography plays a vital part in weather  forecasting and personally believe not enough attention has been given to this  fact based on our vast local regional forecasting area that MT Holly must cover.  This is not the fault of the MT Holly staff at all  but federal govt decisions made back in the early 90's to do away with the Allentown weather forecast office at LVIA. This was a huge mistake and I was against  this change but it was a lost cause. The politicians simply did not care or understand the role of physical geography has on the the LV . That is why I am so outspoken at times about the LV. The "fall Line"" basically stops at S MT range and any thing north of that that is also in a valley which has very unique weather forecasting difficulties such as extreme diurnal and nocturnal temp ranges from the deeper valleys especially with upsloping and downsloping conditions in major storm events including wind storms, fog, freezing rain and even snow accumulations. LV is unique. 

Well, Sunday and Monday were highly inaccurate forecasts with 0.08” yesterday and a 0.00 today. Still convinced the east wind has stabilized the atmosphere to the point that heavy showers and tstorms are unable to form in this quadrant of this system. We go to a more southerly flow on Tuesday, which should be more conducive to heavier rain.

I agree. From 2-4 inches to less than an inch for the LV and points north. I received a whopping .02 more rain than you today.  Hell, the new small leaves on the trees kept the street dry. There were more pollen sacs in the street from last nights gusty winds and brief heavy shower that I thought the township could bring out the plow.  Training of t storms is not in the cards anytime soon. 

Surprised to see the sun this evening. 0.08” during the day from sprinkles and light showers. Precip forecasts for tomorrow and Tuesday are significantly reduced now. I wonder if the accuracy of forecasts will increase with advanced AI.

Yep, today thus far has been a total flop - 0.03” since midnight with drizzle currently and a nowcast radar that shows much of the same the rest of the day. Again the best action is to the west… several hundred miles west. Perhaps tomorrow will be our day?


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Looks like the activity is coming to an end for sw Lehigh County this evening - 0.60” today and 0.73” for the weekend thus far. Wish I had a little bit more rain tonight but really happy with the lightning show. There are definitely more opportunities coming in the next couple days.

Unfortunately, it looks like a lot of the action has stayed to the north and west today. I thought the sunshine would be stabilize us enough to see some action popping. There may be something looking to form in Maryland at this point, so we shall see.

thundershower with gusty winds 25-30 mph now.  Not severe but a nice t shower Need much more.

OMG what a utter failure.  Severe thunderstorm warning issued for Lehigh county-- all I got was a light shower of less than .05. Talk about a fast disintegrating squall line. As soon as it hit the Blue Mts, it was done for.  Totally unbelievable. It just does NOT want to rain anything harder than a light shower right now. It was just enough to make the pollen stick like concrete on the cars. Car washes are going to love this tomorrow.

A disappointing 0.24” of rain and 3.51” for month to date. Was hoping for 0.75”+. It is starting to look the dry pattern is reasserting itself as the precip chances over the next 2 weeks are declining.

Rain looks like it’s going to severely underperform here. Might have to water the garden tonight…

There’s a large brushfire up in Carbon County around Jim Thorpe, last reported at 260 acres that is reportedly going to take at least a couple days to get under control. The southeastern part of the state got much needed rain, but it never materialized north of the cities in the Lehigh Valley.

what BS is this?  I am wide awake because it so warm with the windows wide open. At 4:00 am it is 70+ degrees outside here in Macungie.   55 degree low  doubt we ever  reach it..
However at Towanda  PA, it is sitting at 46 degrees.  Cold front?, why yes.  Precip with this cold front - usually a squall line of heavy showers in late April by a cold front with a 24 degree difference in less than 125 miles- not a drop of rain to be found. Winds- of course  20+ mph.   
 
Mt. Holly, be prepared for real nice fire condition's on Sunday for our area.  This is definitely not April weather- more like late October weather.
 
 

I slept through most of it of course because it likes to snow that time in the morning..
Did look out the window at 8am and saw the dusted white. 
Alburtis is 10 miles away as the crow flies 2.3"  all that tracking and so close
 
 

0.65” before the changeover to Snow here. We actually have a little less than 3/4” snow on nonpaved surfaces.


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It is interesting how this batch of precipitation hits a wall as it comes north and disintegrates. There has been minimal action in the Lehigh Valley and nothing points north. The northern LV and southern Poconos have seen very minimal rain in recent events.

1.35 here in LMT. First time since New Years day  that I have seen the Little Lehigh at bank-full and running muddy this morning. Not a good day to trout fish for sure. The headwaters of the Little Lehigh finally received some decent precip.  Put a real nice dent in the drought conditions for the entire watershed. Waiting for the snow and graupel  for tomorrow. 

I ended up with 1.71” last night in the heavy showers and t-storm band but the ABE airport only had 0.18”. That was a sharp cut off! The northern Lehigh Valley certainly has gotten screwed over the last couple weeks, but I feel fortunate to get in the action last night. Only 45F this morning with some drizzle.


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3.5" for the week and radar says 4 by daybreak

the thundershower I hoped for.  maybe more later

well, I am clearly disappointed that we missed out on all the significant rain again this morning. The fronts hanging up over the mid south  and to the NW of our area just will not allow any GOA moisture to get up here. Light rain showers are not going to cut it for ending this drought.  Sundays t-storms rains chances with heavy rain are dying as I write.  The dry cold winds also return with a vengeance.  We are screwed from Monday on with Tuesday feeling like winter and the heater on full blast. Would not be surprised to see flurries/graupel in the LV.  I am tired of being teased.  Incredible how the Memphis TN area nearly gets a foot of rain and we cannot even squeeze out a popcorn fart of decent precip.

The Philly region has been doing much better than the Lehigh Valley with rain. I only got 0.18 this am, and the airport, a bit further north, only got a few hundredths of an inch. The northern LV in general has seen very little rain, even earlier in the week.

43 F and a cold rain from this line of showers. Less than 1/10 of an inch of rain but it still feels like bonus rain.


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It’s amazing how the lawns greened up and the trees budded overnight.


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