Derecho!

27 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

31 minutes ago, dan11295 said:

12z intensity/track guidance implies a borderline cat 2/3 landfall in Vermilion Parish late Friday morning. Coast is basically marsh with low population there. With fast movement and larger storm would certainly see significant wind impacts to Lafayette area though.

 

6z HWRF has a very large hurricane with a large circulation coming ashore. Likely a Cat 2 intensity-wise at landfall, but after having reached 939 mb in the central GOM. If that verifies, the surge impacts are going to be brutal.

Yeah, my fear is basically that it Ivans itself, and then windspeed reduction right before landfall doesn't really matter. 

I have tried to read a few papers on it but the cause and constraints of TC wind radius and it's changes seem...mysterious to me. Obviously affected by surrounding background pressure, size of originating disturbance, eyewall replacement ycles, etc.

As a side note, despite all the storms none Annular this year in the Atlantic, correct? 

41 minutes ago, LovingGulfLows said:

We're never going to hear the end of it from the ghost of leroy.

I have him and ldub on ignore, but unfortunately I still see people stupidly replying to them. It's sort of embarassing how threads  here can be totally dominated by out-and-out trolls. 

Honestly I just wonder if the land passage just doesn't end up causing the wind field to expand when it restrengthens in the GOM causing much more of a surge threat down the road. 

Heh...HWRF is down to 935 MB in about 7 hours from now.

8 minutes ago, weatherCCB said:

Yeah, no doubt this will probably be a major cane in the Gulf.  Hopefully it will weaken as it nears the coast.  

I actually sort of checked out of the Laura threads right after landfall and missed discussion on why its surge was less than forecast...

But given enough forward speed, weakening on the shelf waters shouldn't lower the surge from Delta nearly as much as the winds, of course, presuming it's a fairly large storm with a large fetch. 

INVEST 91 has been initiated for the Western Caribbean.. 

http://hurricanes.ral.ucar.edu/realtime/plots/northatlantic/2020/al912020/

On 9/21/2020 at 2:11 PM, bigtenfan said:

Agree about MDR season possibly being about over( although one never knows) but out of curiosity with W Carib  season about to start what makes you say that  that the Gulf may be done for the year? I think that the gulf is very vulnerable during W Carib season.

There's a huge difference between Western and Eastern Gulf during W Carib Season. Western is Dead. the threat is essentially to the Gulf coast of Florida. 

Ends up barely not coming ashore in S TX and then heads NE to hit Louisiana on the ECMWF.

So INVEST 90L (Bay of Campeche) has been initiated. 

Umm. No. 

There is no NHC "projected track" for waves that aren't even invests. Just a blob they scribble on the 5 day outlook. Gosh, it curves a little north. 

3 hours ago, Alfoman said:

Jesus Christ. If you think this season is somehow inactive or "disappointing," you likely would have lost your mind tracking a season like 2014 or 2015 (just from recent memory). 

We just had one of the strongest landfalling hurricanes in US history before September. 

I sort of scratch my head that in 2020 people have trouble recognizing they are being trolled. 

11 hours ago, BombsAway1288 said:

Really? The CMC?

Granted, I haven't followed and analyzed the models for verification this year when it comes to tropical systems but just going by how it performed for Laura, I wouldn't exactly say the Canadian is the go-to model.

I'm not saying/trying to downplay anything out there like some people on here. Just questioning the model of choice.

Indeed, It never is. It's not included in any of the consensus models used by NHC.

Being fairly primitive it has a lot of boguscanes the way the GFS/AVN did. If the goal is to "pick up on activity" but one don't care about boguscanes that don't develop, it's great.

It also comes out fairly early and is widely available to look at . Hence all the unwarranted mentions of it. 

Just now, wizard021 said:

Ukmet develops both nhc areas .

51 minutes ago, thunderbolt said:

Maybe you should start looking at it more often LOL

Looking at ICON, the CMC, or the NAM for tropical meteorology leaves you with less knowledge about the tropics than you had before you looked at it. 

19 minutes ago, Tallis Rockwell said:

Why in the world is there literally nothing on the models? Usually I would see some fake storms by now but nothing!

"Boguscanes" (That's an actual term used in academic papers on models) have been drastically reduced.

https://ams.confex.com/ams/99annual/abstracts/687.htm

15-20 years ago the AVN/MRF (predecessor to the GFS) would typically have 2-3 non-existent hurricanes per run in August and September. 

3 hours ago, ldub23 said:

Lots  of dry air  and  shear. TD11 is another struggler. Everything shouldnt  be struggling  if preseason forecasts  of favorable  conditions were right. 5/2/1 rest  of the season though the way they name things these days  11/2/1 is  possible. 20/4/1 for the season?

For whatever reason there are a lot of people who consistently are a month off in their perception of a normal Atlantic tropical season peak. It's September 10th, not August 10th. 

Only way to get a really strong hit is hook from south due to SST profiles, though

Looks like something getting significant heading for Gadsden AL

Warning and a circulation suddenly forming W of Galesburg IL. 

Just now, Derecho! said:

KAIX live stream complaining that the new tornado warning to the NE hasn't been issued yet. 

Next warning issued but did seem awfully slow to come out given storm motion. 

KAIX live stream complaining that the new tornado warning to the NE hasn't been issued yet. 

Unbelievable Live Traffic cam video of Jonesboro Tornado on Weather Channel right now

Went from a rope to a wedge in 25 seconds. 

6 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

I'll mark you down as "in" for a wedge on the mall

Well, the main thing is I think you need to start evacuating La Plata now so it's empty by tomorrow afternoon...

A little odd they haven't started tornado warnings again on the Foard City cell.

Wow, incredibly strong couplet just appeared on a new storm in a few scans in southern Missouri south of the previous cell. 

Another area of rotation has formed SW of Vicksburg more on a path to the city itself. Storm seems complicated though.

Edit: Has suddenly gotten really strong. This is not good.