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TSSN+

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    The Weekend Rule? Saturday 2/17 - The Icon Storm

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    9 minutes ago, CAPE said:

    Yeah not a clipper. Nice timing with the upper level features. The region is gonna be under the left exit region of the jet streak with PVA as the shortwave approaches. With cold air in place, perfect for a quick shot of moderate to heavy snow.

    NWS considers it a clipper.

    SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... A fast moving clipper system is forecast to track across southern Virginia tonight into Saturday morning. Cold air aloft will be in place for much of the area, although the thermal gradient will be very close to central Virginia and southern Maryland. Surface temperatures may be a few degrees above freezing at onset and may fail to drop much below freezing closer to the waters/urban areas and from Charlottesville to southern Maryland. However, the snow rates and overnight time frame will result in some accumulation across much of the area, with the main question mark being south of I-64. Onset time will be between 7 PM and midnight from west to east. Strong frontogentical forcing and the cyclonic side of a 200 kt jet aloft will result in very strong lift and good dendrite growth. This will lead to banding potential with 1-2 inch per hour rates. The location of the heavier bands remains in question, however the overall QPF maximum lies squarely across our forecast area. Travel will likely quickly deteriorate due to the snow rates. The main limiting factor is the very fast movement of the system, with most areas only seeing 3 or 4 hours of heavier snow rates. Snow will quickly depart to the east around or just after sunrise, except for some light lingering upslope snow which could last into the afternoon.

     

     

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