Ellinwood

I'm on board for today... think tornado potential is decent up to the MD/PA border.

Snow forecast for February 11-12... lots of uncertainties with precip types on the south end and QPF amounts on the north end, and some areas could suffer rate issues during the afternoon. As a result, forecast confidence isn't that great.

Final snow forecast for tomorrow. Good ratios where the snow can insta-stick mainly NW of I-95, with surface temp and snow rate concerns on the south side of the accumulations (especially during daylight hours).

Snow forecast for Sunday. South side dealing with marginal surface temps and there could be accumulation issues if the rates aren't good enough during the daylight hours. QPF also a concern across the whole region as it will depend on coastal strength and track.

Final forecast as I will be too busy to work on it tomorrow. Shifted everything a bit south overall, especially east of the Appalachians. Still not buying huge snow totals on the south side given the mixing issues.

Initial snow forecast for January 5-6 (late Sunday into Monday). Favoring the cluster of more northern solutions overall, with some mixing issues showing up from D.C. southward (but not before a decent amount of snow). Euro's more southern track is certainly something to keep an eye on. Main concerns are with potential mixing in the southern areas cutting into totals, and sharpening up the northern gradient once there's better confidence in the track.

3 minutes ago, yoda said:

Did I see you were going to make a map this weekend?

Hope all is well btw

Yessir all is well. Will be getting a map together late morning.

Glad to see the "What is the Mid-Atlantic" debate still alive and well all these years.

There used to be a spin-off forum called Forty South I even made some of the graphics for it at the beginning.

Excited to be drawing a snow map again (tomorrow)... almost a year to the day since my last one. Hoping the 4-8" band verifies IMBY.

Finally got some decent DBZ overhead in Germantown, aaaand... it's all sleet.

Started as a rain/sleet mix in Germantown, but we're over to all snow as of 5-10 minutes ago. Still light rates.

I should just remove I-95 eastward off of my map since it never snows there

My over/under IMBY is 1.5" because that's what I got with the surprise snow in December and if this can't beat that then I'll be sad.

Final forecast. On the southeast side of the snow, I pulled each contour ever so slightly northwest (which I'm still pessimistic on and almost adjusted it further NW than I did). Biggest changes were on the western side of the Appalachians where I added more snow to eastern OH and western PA.

2 minutes ago, AtlanticWx said:

this is just a thought but shouldn't the snow stick almost immediately because of how cold the ground is from the two days of pretty cold temperatures along with those 20 degree DPs up until onset? why use snow depth 

Surface temperatures are marginal for a good chunk of the area (just above freezing) and much of the event occurs during daylight hours and questionable snow rates. Getting good rates will be key in the more marginal areas. There's also a relatively stout isothermal layer in the lower levels that will likely hurt accumulation in lighter rates. A lot of the accumulation for the 1-3" crew will depend on how heavy the rates are and how long the heavier rates last.

Why are people posting 10:1 maps for this storm it's a complete waste of time and energy to even open it on your browser.

20 minutes ago, usedtobe said:

Personally, in these really marginal temp event,  I use the snow depth product.  It's more conservative with amounts which is a good think. If it's really cold other snow maps are probably preferable.  The GFS snowdepth product from the 18Z run.  s

Snow depth maps are precisely my main influences with my forecast for this system, though with some touch-ups because some web sites will under-do snow depth if the rates can overcome the marginal surface temps.

Been awhile...

I could see some "boom" areas in the far NW burbs of the I-95 corridor if there's heavy rates late Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening, otherwise I'm more pessimistic than optimistic. Lines up fairly well with the NWS at least from Philly southward.

gm

chasing this area today

Flip from rain to sleet to snow only took about 15 minutes in Germantown.

Wanted to go full weenie along I-95 with what some of the hi-res are spitting out, but due to the timing and uncertainty with the rates I kept things a bit closer to climo.

A quick update before a full day of watching the kiddo.

GRAY'D
 

Hola.

Rain/snow mix in southwestern Germantown (mostly snow)... was rain/sleet an hour ago. 35F

No changes to my forecast. Playing the usual rule of thumb that the deform band ends up more NW than progged.