Winter Wizard

14 minutes ago, sauss06 said:

i'd think you'd do well with this, no?

IPT is probably in the best spot among major cities in this subforum. 

Less than an inch in round 1 in State College.

Based on recent model trends, I'd go with an area of 4-7 inches extending from the Laurels to north of I-80 and across NEPA with 2-4 inches in the LSV. Like with 11/15 and 1/20, how much snow we get depends on how strong the WAA thump is. I'm not sure I buy such a prolonged period of freezing rain that the NAM is showing but regardless, travel will be quite hazardous tomorrow.  

Great post earlier by @djr5001 showing the comparison between obs and soundings from this morning. Models have a tendency to underestimate the warm air between 850 and 700 mb, so would not surprise me to see an earlier transition from snow as a result. 

Hearing about 3 inches in Wilmington with moderate snow falling. 

Approaching 4 inches in State College now with moderate to heavy snow persisting. 

Heavy snow here in State College, probably 3 inches or so.

Heavy snow in State College. Solid band of 30+ DBZ returns currently bisecting 322 and moving northeast.

We should root for a stronger system to move in Thursday night into Friday since that would shift the baroclinic zone farther south, allowing this weekend's event to track farther south. Thursday night's system seems like a general 2-4" event across most of the region.

For this weekend, I would definitely be more concerned about the ice threat as opposed to snow, especially if I lived N and W of Interstate 81. There is a definite cold air damming signal, which CTP alluded to in the discussion, and it is often underestimated by the models leading up to events of this nature. That being said, strong frontogenetic lifting associated with warm air advection could lead to a solid burst of snow at the start across Central PA Saturday night, as hinted by the 18z GFS. The key to overperforming in this system would be to get strong rates at the start, which would cool the column and allow cold air to stick around longer. Definitely something to watch over the next few days. 

I've never seen such a sharp cutoff in snow between my house and ILG before. We got only around 2 inches at my house while areas just barely south of me got at least 5. 

20 minutes ago, maytownpawx said:

Truth! I'm trying to recall a storm where virtually the entire subforum received a 6"-12" snowfall. Doesn't happen often for sure.

February 13, 2014 and March 2017 were probably the closest to that but both still had a very sharp western cutoff. 

20 minutes ago, maytownpawx said:

State College has been shafted repeatedly for years. Glad to see Happy Valley get smoked this time! 

Best part about this storm was that everyone in this forum cashed in! It’s been a long time since we could say that about a storm. Hopefully this is a sign of things to come this winter.

We finished with 11.5” at Penn State and between 3 and 4 inches back home in Wilmington. An impressive storm to say the least.

11.5” is the storm total at the Walker Building. By far the biggest storm I’ve ever seen in November and biggest I’ve seen in State College, wow.

Absolutely pouring snow in State College. Probably pushing 4” now.

5 minutes ago, pawatch said:

Weather Channel is up there live...

Started  here at 11:45 and it's not messing around.

I’ll actually be on there live later today lol

Snow has started in State College.

The yellow/orange band set up over Wilmington is moderate to heavy snow, no sleet. 

4 minutes ago, KamuSnow said:

You must be under those yellows - how is it? Here it's a light steady snow under the greens.

I’m actually in State College but reports back home is it’s still just light snow. I’m guessing the yellows are where sleet is mixing in. 

Snow has started in N Wilmington

14 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

I honestly cannot remember a significant November storm in my lifetime(1990-1991) and I've live in the region my entire life(albeit Lancaster and New Jersey for a few years). My memory may be getting fuzzy with old age though  

Last one around here was 1987 so you’d be correct. A rarity indeed.

29/14

Expect snow to come in like a wall tomorrow. If you believe the 3k NAM this would easily support rates of 1 inch per hour or greater in State College in the afternoon.

i would expect a general 4-8” across CTP with isolated up to 10” north of I-80. Trends are definitely encouraging tonight. 

The 0z NAM actually trended quite favorably for the area. As Ralph mentioned, the high retreating east is a limiting factor, but the system arriving earlier allows for a quick WAA thump before changing to rain. I think that's easily the best case scenario locally although I'd take it with a grain of salt for now. N and W suburbs, on the other hand, could face an extended period of freezing rain or sleet. 

I feel pretty good about seeing a few inches here in State College, though. 

Trends  have definitely been favorable for wintry precipitation across Central PA especially in higher elevations. It's encouraging that the system has trended to an earlier arrival since that allows for more cold air to funnel in from the high to our north before it exits east. I would definitely be concerned about ice at this point if I lived in the UNV-AOO-JST corridor down through the Shenandoah Valley.

Pretty decent chance at severe weather across Central and Western PA through Upstate NY tomorrow. CAPE exceeding 1000 J/KG and shear over 40 knots supports the possibility of rotating supercells, although lapse rates are poor. There will be an MCS moving through early tomorrow morning: we need that move out as early as possible to allow for clearing and destabilization of the atmosphere. 

Going to be out storm chasing in the Plains from 5/7 to 5/17. Pattern isn't the most favorable, but should still get a few solid chase days in. 

24 minutes ago, lte5000 said:

^ Thinking I might have to set my alarm for around 4 am to catch the good rates.

It'll be quite a show!