Sydney Claridge

Even this gust front got a severe thunderstorm warning with a “destructive” tag. 

It’s incredible how much wind energy there is.

Rotation seems to be tightening near/over Kimball, MN.

Tornado crossing I-55 in Cape Girardeau, MO with power flashes, per KFVS livestream.

9 minutes ago, sbnwx85 said:

The county to the north probably needs a tornado warning on it. The rotation looks to be passing more towards Paxton, IL and north of Rantoul (the county line there is the boundary between the NWS offices in ILX and LOT).

This storm east of Farmer City, IL moving towards Rantoul looks a little concerning, especially if the rotation tries to tighten up any more.

I'm getting very concerned about this tornadic storm as it moves closer into the STL metro. A PDS warning was definitely warranted for it.

22 minutes ago, TheNiño said:

I’m giad it’s not but I was expecting this to be a PDS watch. 

I feel like there are questions on moisture return at the moment as to why SPC didn’t go PDS.

3 minutes ago, Powerball said:

Here we go...

https://x.com/NWSSPC/status/1853481628875809191?t=1dheqYTKF1zbmnQsj1x5rw&s=19

70/40 tornado probabilities too. The watch does cover a large area (DFW all the way up to the OK/KS border), though.

I'm definitely keeping an eye on that area of showers currently over the DFW area (and more generally along and west of the I-35 corridor in north Texas), to see if any supercells try to go up within the next few hours.

1 minute ago, andyhb said:

Tornado moving directly into downtown Chicago near 290 right now, jesus christ.

15 minutes ago, Chinook said:

possibly up to a 60 mile long tornado track north of Dallas

If that tornado was on the ground that entire time, I suspect it would be one of the longest tornado tracks on record (if not the longest track) for the areas near/around DFW. While we are at the southern end of Tornado Alley, north-central Texas has actually had very few long-track (25+ miles) tornadoes in its record.

37 minutes ago, cstrunk said:

The DFW area still looks to be ground zero for the supercell/hail threat this afternoon. I think the Enhanced Risk is delineated too far to the north, once you get east of there. I wouldn't be surprised if it gets trimmed back south closer to I-20 in NE TX and N LA, as opposed to extending along I-30 in NE TX to Texarkana and southern Arkansas.

There's definitely a significant temperature/moisture boundary (warm front?) over DFW right now. Upper 70s and 80s with 70s dewpoints to the south of DFW at the moment, with 60s and low 70s with dewpoints in the 40s north of DFW.

While hail and wind will be the biggest threat, I also want to be mindful of any possibilities for tornadoes when such a boundary is in place, as there is often localized enhancement of tornado parameters near/along these sort of boundaries.

This area needs to be watched very closely as it moves into Westerville and New Albany.

17 minutes ago, mob1 said:

The cell approaching the northern burbs of Cincinnati could be trouble. 

Not going to rule anything out, but it looks like that storm moving into Cincinnati seems to be getting cut off by outflow. There may be some spin-up potential around Lebanon, OH as well.

There's also the storm moving towards the northern Columbus suburbs. Places like Plain City and Dublin will soon be in its path, and perhaps Westerville and New Albany down the line. On the other hand, SPC Mesoanalysis is showing a sudden drop-off in tornado ingredients around the Columbus metro, but I wouldn't count on the storm weakening before it impacts the Columbus metro, either. This storm is well-isolated from other storms, so there is definitely potential for concern.

EDIT: rotation tightening between Mechanicsburg and Plain City.

3 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said:

Those training supercells lined up southeast of Indianapolis are reminding me of the storms that trained north of Oklahoma City yesterday, had those storms in Oklahoma not become outflow-dominant (of course the OK storms had a higher parameter space had they not become outflow-dominant, but still…).

7 minutes ago, canderson said:

And actually weakening a bit as it moves east. I’m out (but glad it did this) 

It just escalated. Severe thunderstorm warning with a destructive damage threat tag now out for the Moore area, with 80 MPH wind gusts possible.

10 minutes ago, canderson said:

I’m real worried about Norman to OKC, including Moore. 

Me too.

There's nothing too concerning on that storm around Gracemont and Binger just yet, but it wouldn't take much at all for that to change.

The debris ball has even stronger reflectivity now. My heart just sank upon seeing this.

The storm approaching Barnsdall, if it holds together, is on a track that would take it into (or at least close to) Bartlesville in around 30 minutes. Hopefully that line to the west will catch up to this supercell soon.

1 minute ago, Powerball said:

^^^^Good thing the forcing is weak, because that's a flimsy looking cap if I ever saw one..

Thank goodness, because the other ingredients in place would allow for strong tornado activity if a supercell went up.

3 minutes ago, stormdragonwx said:

Wow

I don't think I've ever seen a VTP as high as 20 before. The ingredients in place over central and northern Oklahoma are absolutely insane.

Looks like there are now attempts at initiation south of I-40 now.

This needs to be watched very closely, especially down the line as the storms near the OKC metro.

Just now, Akeem the African Dream said:

.

It's definitely too early to call this a bust. Let's not forget what happened in southern Oklahoma on April 27th; that outbreak didn't really get underway until after dark.

The deeper, richer moisture is further east, and the News 9 livestream just mentioned this.

Just now, HillsdaleMIWeather said:

Southern extent of the supercells looks a little less than expected rn maybe

That would be good news for the OKC metro if this remains the case. That's a big if, and I'm not counting on this remaining the case.

The area between I-70 in Kansas and I-40 in Oklahoma has really lit up with supercells now. It's only a matter of time before we start seeing this tornado outbreak begin in earnest.

We have two tornado-warned cells in northwest Oklahoma now, one by Waynoka and now the cell east of Mutual.