BrandonC_TX

58 minutes ago, cheese007 said:

Had a brief tor warning up in Denton. Can't say I saw that coming on a marginal risk day

We actually had some favorable values (EHI, SigTor, VTP) earlier that showed up on the SPC Mesoanalysis between DFW and the Red River.  Some of those values were pretty high (there were VTPs exceeding 9, for instance) before the storms came through, so I’m not surprised at all that there were a few tornado-warned storms.

3 minutes ago, purduewx80 said:

unfortunately, eating healthy and having enough time to exercise is a privilege in this country, thanks largely to capitalism. helps explain why people of color have suffered the most this year.

No wonder why COVID has preyed on this country so much.  None of our politicians seem to have the chutzpah to rein in the junk food industry, and the false narrative of "personal choice" (look up "food deserts") continues to be an issue.  As much as I hate to say it, our country was primed for a pandemic that would come in, spread, and take advantage of the large number of people who are overweight or obese.

Our healthcare system was apparently designed to deal with acute illnesses, and fails miserably at the treatment and prevention of certain chronic illnesses ("pre-existing conditions") that can contribute to severe cases of COVID.  Preventing things like this in the future might require a full-on "War on Obesity," and politicians (and others) will have to make many hard decisions (and challenge the powerful junk-food lobby) should they follow this path.

Not even a 2% tornado risk today but yet we are currently seeing tornado warnings north of Columbus, OH.   This does include Franklin County, generally the northeastern part around New Albany.  It surprised me when I noticed said warnings.

NBC4 Washington on-air met thinks a tornado warning may be coming in for DC soon, hook over NW DC.  I did notice an outflow boundary on radar earlier west of Arlington/south of McLean along I-66, however.

12 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Th modeling had a fairly sharp turn at which point it doesn't make very much westward headway at all, so the timing of the turn will be key

Hopefully that turn happens sooner than later.  The current forecast track is bad news for Lake Charles, with the eyewall  potentially impacting there.  Still, a Louisiana landfall is the better-case scenario, population-wise, over a Texas landfall.
 

I would still feel very concerned if I were in Galveston, though.  Regardless of where the eye comes ashore, this is a large storm.  The Houston-Galveston area is forecast to see tropical storm conditions, especially in the eastern part of the metro.  But it seems like the worst of the storm could occur anywhere from Beaumont (with a later turn) to east of Lake Charles (earlier turn).  The timing of this turn will determine impacts on the upper Texas coast.

Oh no, that doesn’t look good... 

That line up by Saint Cloud just lit up with 4 tornado warnings.  Looks like another couplet is forming on a tornado-Warner supercell (ahead of the line) just north of Brownton, MN as well.  The Brownton storm might try to make a run at the Twin Cities metro if it holds together.

I'm starting to wonder about those storms west of the Twin Cities.  Not seeing anything too strong with rotation at this time, but they are all isolated storms in a favorable environment.  The severe-warned storm south of Buffalo Lake may be one to watch.  There also appears to be a couple of couplets near West Union (along I-94), but these look to be on the frontal boundary itself.

1 minute ago, hawkeye_wx said:

The morning visible loop does not look very healthy.  As recon showed, there is a weak core with convection displaced to the south.

Hopefully things stay that way.  I absolutely do not want to see a significant storm impact the Texas coast, especially with the state of the pandemic across Texas.  But this hurricane season is only getting started (and looks to be a potentially-significant one), so there is always the possibility.

1 hour ago, yoda said:

First moderate risk day in quite a long time... since mid June?  Wind driven... and it's a small mod risk 

ETA: never seen a hatched wind on a 15 percent before... on the new Day 2

I've noticed that SPC has included hatching on 15% wind risks, starting earlier this year, when there is potential for a major damaging wind event but there is a degree of uncertainty as to whether said threat will actually materialize (such as capping, etc.).

We have a tornado watch in North Dakota for today.  Meanwhile, across the Canadian border in Manitoba it looks like there is a storm with significant rotation:

Might that be rotation trying to form northeast of Rochelle?

5 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said:

Surprise Ohio TOR

The National Weather Service in Cleveland has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  Southeastern Knox County in north central Ohio...

* Until 645 PM EDT.

* At 611 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
  was located near Mount Vernon, moving southeast at 25 mph.

  HAZARD...Tornado and quarter size hail.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

  IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
           shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
           Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree
           damage is likely.

There is also a severe-warned storm behind this one (Marion, OH area).  Would not be surprised if that one could clip the northeastern portions of the Columbus area only if that storm takes a right-turn.

Ingredients for tornadoes are much better in northern Illinois per SPC mesoanalysis.  Watch those storms west of Rochelle and Rockford as they move east, could be a concern as they approach Chicagoland.

I doubt that Euro run will verify (several Euro runs are showing a major storm over the Great Lakes), but if it did, it would not surprise me to see an outbreak of severe thunderstorms associated with it.  Some GFS runs have also showed a major Great Lakes storm in the same time frame. 

Getting a low like that in June is practically unheard of, and if it verifies, it could be something to end the tornado drought (from May) as well.

0-3km EHI is as high as 10 along the OR/WA border.  I have never seen values that high in the Pacific Northwest before, but keep in mind that LCL heights are very high.  Storm south of (and moving towards) Bend, OR has lower LCL heights.

 

5 minutes ago, Arishtat said:

Just curious, you mean the one north, or the one south of town? Still trying to learn to read radar. 

Even though the one to the south is the tornado producer, that storm to the north of Streator (near Ottawa) still bears watching as it is moving straight for the Chicago metro area.

Aside from the risk for hail, tornadoes, and wind, I am getting very concerned about flooding potential near and west of Bowie, TX.  These storms have stalled over this area for quite some time, with heavy precipitation, and they may only now be starting to increase their forward motion.  There are also other storms behind this complex as well.

The big question is whether this complex will take a right turn and impact the northern areas of the Metroplex.

I wonder if that is an MCV associated with that activity near Bowie, TX?  Storm motions seem to be rotating around a point near Bowie.

Storm over Wichita Falls looks to be developing rotation.  It looks as if that storm has caught up to the outflow boundary ahead of it and is latching onto that OFB.

I'm starting to wonder if SPC overestimated the effects of the outflow boundary with respect to their re-positioning of the ENH risk earlier.  The significant hail is currently materializing north of the ENH risk and the hatching, but that storm SW of Bellevue, TX still bears watching, especially if it becomes a right-mover.  That storm has just taken on supercellular characteristics (including a hook), so it may take a right turn pretty soon.

EDIT: couplet SW of Bellevue:

Tornado warning also issued for that storm just northwest of Wichita Falls.  Radar indicated at this time.

EDIT: confirmed tornado west of Burkburnett according to livestream from Channel 6 in Wichita Falls.

Looks like there is a major hail storm ongoing northwest of Wichita Falls now, it is warned for up to 3-inch hail.  There may be some additional attempts at convective initation in the Graham/Jacksboro area per radar and satellite imagery; some of the ingredients there seem better for severe weather (supercell composite, SigTor, EHI, etc.), compared with southern OK, although that Red River storm is in a perfect position to produce large hail.

Attempts at convective initiation around Graham and Jacksboro seem to be struggling at this moment.  Some light radar returns are present there, although nothing significant has formed yet.

Looks like some attempts at convective initiation may be occurring near Jacksboro, TX.

Enhanced risk is now centered over north Texas, including the Metroplex, and has been trimmed away from southern OK.  OFB is now over the Metroplex, albeit with strong heating on the immediate north side of the boundary based on observations and SPC outlook.