The_Global_Warmer

Skeptical Science interview is available.

http://www.skepticalscience.com/arctic-methane-outgassing-e-siberian-shelf-part2.html

That was weird. It was clear the interviewee was holding back a bit to not politicize this threw alarmism. but also admitted the 8gt is undeRdone. and that the methane is 6-8k years old.

I see I'm not the only one haunting Yurganov's archive, waiting for the December update.

Huff past is taking this seriously.

http://www.huffingto...tml#postComment

it was a good article. But most folks will see alarmism because they want to believe it's not possible. The link to the other recent paper about the soot and methane was good as well.

Yes. Excellent posters. I am more on the Skeptical side..Friv and Skier are those on the AGW side that I respect.

I have been away for a while. Is vergent new or just a different name from Eastern?

I appreciate it. I respect everyone who is being geniune in their own right. I think that we all get bias and and from time to time might get caught up in agendas. And we all make mistakes and should all try to be more respectful to others when they make them and assume the best and try to help out as best as possible.

Then there are some here who clearly only have one "agenda" in mind. And responding to there BS just makes it worse.

1. Guys lets stop with the name calling. I understand how frustrating argueing with someone who goes around to nearly every thread he posts in and talks about clouds and Geomag begging for people to listen all while saying yes yes it's geomag, but maybe it's not hehe, we will see. Thats why you should just not do it. He has been doing the same thing for years. Every time you break the TOS, and I am sure name calling of any sort does that job you get turned in. If he doesn't turn you in I am sure someone does. I was banned from this forum for 2 days and my infractions were speck of sand compared to others because I had so many reported posts. Even posts that were just "conjecture" were reported as spamming. You won't win this game in this fashion, you win it by sticking to reality. And all of you are needed for contributions here. So lets keep it a bit more clean. there is no reason to let it get to you so much. I've been threw it, it's not worth it.

2. From a nuetral POV there are many posts in this thread that reek of Alarmism. I am very liberal and fully believe the power of GHGs and I am very open minded of the dangers of it and that includes Methane Clathrates. But in the same way we have seen so many posters come here and say speak of the sea ice being "fine" as if that was actual a reality or it being recovered or saying Cryosat or PiPs is legit is kinda the same as pimping a methane smoking gun. I fully believe that we will see at least a doubling of methane release between now and 2015 in the arctic. and probably a tripling by 2020, which I believe takes it from 8 mil GTons to 24 mil GTons. But we do not have near enough evidence as of now to be so alarming with it.

3. Do not forget that the sun sets every winter in the arctic.

4. Have Fun!!

I posted this link back on page 5, but perhaps it's relevant at this stage of the discussion.

http://www.polarrese...w/6425/html_150

Talks about the lower regions of the Lapev Sea being heated 3C by a combination of albedo, and storm conditions due to lessened ice cover. When coupled with S&S's findings that permafrost becomes permeable at temperatures much lower than previously believed, it seems to provide a rational for the observations, and a warning of things to come if the ice continues to abate.

The spike upward in early 2008 shown on Friv's anomaly charts corresponds to the time that Semiletov began noting signs of dangerous emissions in the ESAS.

BTW Verg - Thanks for doing something with the AIR graphics, I think they will help guide the discussion.

Lower regions of the Laptev are between 72 and 76N. Which are also very shallow.

Those Clathrates are in places 50M or shallower. We know that the sun in the arctic can get down to about 100-125M. Obviously the more shallow the more time that more energy will be reaching into the water as well as the more time the energy will be available.

The Laptev starts to see Sunlight again in a few weeks.

Looking back into the past. There were many years of open water in the Laptev. But what has changed dramatically is how early this is starting now.

http://igloo.atmos.uiuc.edu/cgi-bin/test/print.sh?fm=07&fd=21&fy=1979&sm=07&sd=21&sy=2011

I am sure if someone wants to find one year and try to spin as if it is normal for the Laptev to have regions be ice free as long as now then so be it.

2011 was quite remarkable in the length of time that the Laptev had open water during the summer. The Polyanas started to form at the every end of May/first week of June. In the past this was more common towards mid to late June into early July, but not only that would come and go or slowly open up as the summer melt would go on and by August sometime the sea would open up or not, or be partialy open.

Not until the 2000s and really 2007 have we seen such abrupt summer changes up there coming earlier and earlier. Clearly the MYI probably played a role. 2008 didn't melt out early because of an anomolous pattern.

Basically what happened in 2011 compared to other years which explains the extra methane is probably a factor of longer term melting over time. And having so much open water for so long during peak sun between 72-78N for the seas to warm(Remember polarstern found a 3C water temp 10 meters deep in September hudnreds of miles off the coast in the Laptev). They also noted how incredibly late ice formation was in this region as well. Not the ice we see on concentration graphs but the very beggenings.

So far 2007 and 2011 are pretty anomalous in terms of how much peak solar time the water was exposed to the sun. Logically we can assume a combo of longer term melting and excessive in situ warming are the faults for this taking place.

If the in situ warming continues the only obvious conclusion is the rate of methane release will go up faster and faster.

When, how much, and where a massive release could take place is hard to say. But this directly coincides with a substansial increase in early ice loss in the areas where methane is bubbling out.

It would be very irresponsible to ignore the reality here. It is equally irresponsible to proclaim anything that doesn't have enough evidence to validate it will happen.

Even if we see the ice trends stop right here and stay here for a while, given the dynamics in play I would still think more and more methane will continue to pour out. If we continue to see arctic warming and early ice loss in the key areas. Then hope the amount of methane close to being released is not absurd.

UAH can not properly analyze the arctic surface let alone analyze 82-90N. How many threads in how many different ways can UAH be brought into?

When you look at it like that it is definitely on the rise. But nothing explosive so far at all.

Thanks Don.

Buoys have shown us many cases that giss underestimates the arctic surface warming. This is highly evident in fall. Look at the Kara and Laptev in December. Giss will not even be close to getting that of warmth.

But apparently its just Contaminating the data set. Natural changes in surface albedo contaminates the data set. So were told.

What happens to CH4 that is bubbing out while the arctic is freezing up. I am assuming it cant freeze at the surface of the ocean.

Iwould assume the ice blocks it from reentry to the ocean. How long does keltic keep pouring out of the ocean after freeze up?

the sun can give SW to parts of the ESAS until mid fall IIRC. Is that when its over ?

like do the clathrates keep leaking out methane or freeze back over the winter months while no sun?

Thanks in advance.

Next summer will be a big year to focus on this. There is no MYI left in the Russian side. The Russians do a hell of a job every week using satelittes, radar, shipping records, submarines, models, and ascat to track ice progresion. Ice in the barents, laptev, and kara has been continuously recycled under the near constant pattern. Not to mention the constant warm temp anomalies.

We could get another conplete meltout of the Russian seas.

Last summer the ESB didnt melt out because of that arm of MYI that extended well up into the Sea. That arm was crippled and pushed north towards the chuchki while the MYI running along the Kara, laptev, barents has been pushed out the fram into the greenland sea, and Canadian basin. That was mostly 2nd and 3rd year Ice that was about a half to meter thick in mid sept.

That ice will likely be 2-3 meter ice in the Canadian basin. While the ice in its place will be 1-2 meters wont make it.

2012 is clearly to play a huge role. The ESAS will go ice free to very thin again. I hope they are prepared to moniter it

Peter Wadhams spends a lot of time in the arctic and is well repsected. I was suprised to see him on the list even though he does think the ice will possibly melt out between 2015-2020. But he didn't believe that until he went back to the arctic recently during the summer and saw the state of the ice himself.

This thread is an alarmist disaster. Come on.

This thread is actually filled with a ton of information with tons of legit science backup. Everyone participitating has learned who chooses to learn in many ways about CH4 in this thread. Where it comes from, how strong it is, how the measuring process works, how much is there out there?, how legit the threat is, upper atmospheric charts and methane analysis, what are the wind patterns that carry CH4 as well as other GHGS throught the atmosphere, why did methane stop rising for a while, why is it rising again, how long has it been rising, how far back does the rising go, what are the implications of this, does the sea ice reduction play a role, how much of a role does solar insolation play, will we see more of this in 2012, 13, 14?

I can go on and on. This thread is loaded with incredible amounts of information so either you already know all of it which is doubtful, or your not in the thread to learn it.

And yet peer reviewed papers posted in this thread don't support that position at all. The source(the authors) of the article that prompted this thread reject that position also. There is no history beyond several years to even speculate on methane release. (Not even a hockey stick with cherry picked tree data as proxy to temperature. Tree data that is replaced with real data the last 50 years because real data does not match the proxy.)

There are many things we do not know about climate change. Somehow massive releases of methane have not doomed the planet in the history of the planet. Even when dinosaurs roamed the poles.

Will you show me where this is being used?

Until we see say 50-100 million gt of mthane break oit at once or a very short period. we won't see wide spread changes.

This is the pre-Cursor to massive releases this shows us that clathrates are breaking down from melting. These may temporarily freeze or have a slowdown also the ice around 5-1 meter has grown by now , this will block or slow the release.

Next summer this will likely seem like a minor event compared to then. What do you think 2-3 months of ice free solar insolation will do?

How about 2013?

2014?

Even if by some miracle the ice extent naturally variables its way to 5.0-5.5 km2 extent. Remember that is 15% the entire arctic could sit at 30% concentration and the I've extent would be 8.5 mil km2.

The arctic ice albedo feedback won't stop. Our buoys tell us that more heat is being trapped than any recent times.

hopefully we have better tracking up there next summer.

Been a way for a while. But before I left this forum had kinda agreed that posting articles about climate from Uk newspaper was stupid.

This artical was stupid. No links from peer reviewed papers. No explanation how loss of sea ice enabled Methane to be released from under the ocean. This is not a political sub forum.

The Ice reflects the Shortwave radiation back. Between the Laptev, ESB, Chuchki, and Kara the amount of extra W/M2 since say 2007 could be pretty high like in the Hundreds of Billions, or maybe Trillions by now. I am not sure. But that will definitely even heat up the arctic floor enough, expecially if it is 100M or shallower, the futher down in latitude the more deep the sun rays can reach. Some places with tons of methane are closer to shore with 30-60M deep water that might be getting 2-3 months of extra sun that it never got before or very very rare.

So without the Sea Ice retreat/loss of thickness/loss of age/lost all together this would not be happening. There is no doubt about that.

Where else do you believe the methane deposits came from? The earth is in a cool period right now and thats the only reason we even have ice caps.

I have no idea Thats why I am asking you. You made a claim. I have no idea I your claim is valid. I asked if you have anyway to back your claim so I can learn more about this.

Interesting that both Semiletov & Shakhova are on board.

As an aside, when clathrates dissolve a huge amount of fresh water is released along with the methane (tracking fresh water plumes is a method used to locate clathrate deposits at risk), the SSS daily charts show a salinity in the ESAS only matched at the southern end of James Bay, which is at best slightly brackish.

Hey Terry.

the graph you posted is from modeled data. I would be weary of using it.

http://www.whoi.edu/page.do?pid=75657

That is from a live active buoy that is working 100% correct with no hang ups.

this shows current salinity at:

Last position on 2011/12/25 230033 UTC : 75.0958° N, 138.2419° W

that is quite a bit lower than the modeled data. That looks prety high for a frozen arctic at the surface.

So I am not sure how much credence I would give that graph.

http://www.whoi.edu/page.do?pid=75676

that one is around 77N and 132W that shows closer to 25. So the graph from the Navy looks like it's way over done.

Unless they are lying, it is already happening.

They know that, you have to admire their courage. You also have to to believe that they are scared, more for the planet than for their jobs and reputation.

I do, they are involved in something with deep knowledge of it and that knowledge tells them the Earth is in some big trouble. This is backed by mainstream science.

This is matter of how much methane so we can figure out how screwed, if at all we are. Not a matter of if methane warms the atmosphere.

This is true, but will likely be far over-looked by to many folks. Who will cast them as kooks. If we see the ice loss increase/ROW rate of warming increase more in the arctic summers/winters coming up, it won't matter, there fears will get much more light as methane keeps pouring out, unless they are just wrong about all of this. Which I am sure many at this point are choosing to believe over reality. As I write this the MYI is getting flushed even more. We really need a pattern change before we end up going into next summer with hardly any MYI ice left in the basin. We are virtually guarenteed at this point even with a favorable pattern for less ice loss that we will reach 5.0 mil km2 or lower leaving the Russian side totally ice free again for methane clathrates to melt some more.

The Euro develops a stout Dipole Anomaly this week, adding to the already bad conditions in the arctic for the ice.

Some of that is being compacted causing ridging along the Canadian Basin. This is devoiding almost all of the Russian seas of any old ice. leaving only FYI, but maybe will help cause some thick ice to develop threw ridging in the CA Islands area. This still doesn't help the Atlantic side where ice is being slammed out the arctic with relentless 20-40KT winds week after week.

An Arctic methane emergency group has been formed, and has set up a web site.

http://www.arctic-me...bout/4558060537

"Letter to the worlds leaders"

"Emergency intervention to stabilize Arctic sea ice and thereby Arctic methane is today a matter of our survival."

http://www.arctic-me...ders/4558749249

They will be cast off as crazies. Even if what they believe happens.

As I learned before talking solutions are not very productive. But science in thread has been extremely productive.

I thought someone posted the ch4 levels from svalbard?

Between the myi and perpetuall blow torch. 2012 in the arctic will see the russian side melt out again. likely assuring more and more clathrates to repeat and do more.

If we get an pattern like now look out.

Remember in middle sept when I said the Ice was very thin and we saw Ice retreat 100 miles in 3 days with good winds, not great.

The Ice along the kara, esb, laptev, and barents will be .50 to 2m thick at best.

Solar insolation starts back up around 78N in late Feb.

Gonna be an interesting spring.

Thats pretty sweet science.

But this is reality. You don't have methane plumes at that level and no atmospheric changes.

With The Hippo data now out there.

We are about to see new papers with better models predicting things so we can continue to refine projections

There has been independent widespread measurement of elevated methane in the arctic.

"Something too new to fully understand (although a report on it is being prepared for publication), Wofsy says, is a finding of notable concentrations of methane in the Arctic’s atmosphere that trace back to the sea.

“Oceanographers have known for some time that there is production of methane in surface waters of the Arctic,” he says, but “it’s never been observed in the atmosphere.” Those oceanographic data, he says, suggest a source for this methane other than sediments or the melting of icy gas hydrates.

The phenomenon also appears very widespread. “We observed that the ocean surface releases methane to the atmosphere all over the whole of the Arctic Ocean,” Wofsy says."

http://www.sciencene...imate_surprises

This is not good.

Thank you so much for posting this. I am glad to see oxy production was up in the southern hemisphere. But the rest sucks.

So this is a mostly a laptev and ESB event or kara and chuchki to barents and bearing.

Also, my cpu is broken. I am getting it fixed this week. Will someone please post any real time obs of ch4 in the arctic region, thank you.

Well done phillip.