The_Global_Warmer

The gfs and euro have been showing some incredible solutions over GIS.

Pretty wild. The 12z gfs touches 5800M at H5 over Southern GIS.

That's wickedly awesome.

This is a big redistribution of heat in the Northern Hemisphere.

The SH is also at record SSTS.

Upper ocean ohc is extremely high attm.

And what's wild is the nino ohc loss has been weak compared to similar ninos.

Maybe the heat uptake is "stronger" than before causing ohc to be higher relative to normal.

Reading the tinfoil hats is amazing entertainment

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2015/10/15/frances-top-tv-weatherman-suspended-for-criticising-climate-dogma/

The heat is a major factor.

This heat is unprecedented in our records.

We have seen major changes in the polar regions with small warming.

The arctic is expected to be 5-9C warmer by 2100. Most of that will be in April, May, and October.

I think if global weather patterns change it will be when the high lat oceans are much warmer. When arctic circle snow cover melts in April and is gone by May.

Who knows.

But I have no doubt methane will start rising much faster over the next decade

I'm not assuming it. He has been demonstrably shown to be a provocative troll and liar and has been banned for it in the past. Why is he even allowed to post here at all after already being banned? He openly admits to being a banned member.

He donates.

I appreciate the education on ratpac.

These threads should not be brought to a halt over intentional deception.

It's once choice weather to actively engage in it or not. But it takes away from furthering the discussion and is a huge waste of energy.

The models show a relentless very anomalously warm Southerly flow pounding gis the next couple of weeks.

Probably gonna see a lot of rain over SGIS

The resolution wouldn't matter as much over a 60 year period. In shorter timescales, it's impact becomes more evident.

This.

I'm in the camp that the 2007-12 period was more of an aberration than a "new normal". I don't believe the weather patterns that dominated those years are likely to return to the same extent any time soon, and the weather going forward will be more similar to 2013-15 than 2007-12.

The long term trend continues down, but much slower than we saw 2007-12. There is some evidence that returning -AMO could slow down Arctic melt as well.

Therefore, I think another year in the next few years could easily surpass 2013. And it will take a return to sustained +dipole patterns to see something below 2012. Eventually, I think the long term trend will win out, and that happens some time in the early 2020s. But then we could easily see a big bounce back again, temporarily.

2015 is like 2007 to 2012.

Not 2013-14.

It's not even close

http://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/details.cgi?aid=11899#.Va-mGGx8TEo.twitter

There will be above normal chances for strong August melt along the 1200M line in August with crippled albedo and the strong -NAO

Holy ****.

Really that is incredible.

That's a huge area that is only 1000-1500M up on the most gentle slopes in Greenland.

So there is a large surface area open to major melt.

Above 1500M is much tougher to get that

Jason Box is reporting albedo has dropped to lowest on record for this date.

Just unreal how bad in just 17-20 days it has gotten.

Will albedo fall below 2012s lowest mark?

WOW!!!! Those are running 8-12C. That is incredible.

The average there is around 0-2C.

this melt season went from nothing to epic in a flash.

Amazing

That second band of low albedo on the left side of gis is bad bad bad

pretty big melt week and it looks to continue

GIS is being totally annihilated

So it begins...

 

Melt has vigorously picked up. And the biggest torching during this -NAO is just starting.

The graphic above shows 30-35% For the past 10 days.

Given the modeled temps the next 10 days. I would think it will jump to 40-50% average with a one day peak of 65-75%.

ASTA around GIS have blown up.

Snow is mostly gone on the land areas. Albedo is finally plummeting.

Late start but major melt underway.

If this pattern holds the next 7 weeks then this year will abruptly be bad.

No end through July 1st.

So it begins...

Could reach 75%. Highest since 2012 for sure.

By July 1st albedo will be near record lows.

Looks like we might get a few days over 50%.

The 00z models smoke GIS like a fat blunt.

Death Star torch

Yeah the models show conditions favorable for big time melt.

Possibly, it is a large jump tho.

https://www.nodc.noaa.gov/OC5/3M_HEAT_CONTENT/basin_data.html

3-month 0-2000m average reveals 2015

2012.125 5.675 0.251 3.382 0.136 2.294 0.115

2013.125 8.134 0.217 4.125 0.121 4.009 0.096

2014.125 8.404 0.212 4.449 0.121 3.955 0.091

2015.125 8.944 0.217 4.728 0.108 4.216 0.109

According to this, North Atlantic OHC has recovered since 2012. 0-700m shows warming as well.

2012.125 3.385 0.190 2.270 0.102 1.114 0.087

2013.125 5.264 0.166 2.907 0.091 2.357 0.075

2014.125 5.185 0.163 2.907 0.093 2.278 0.070

2015.125 5.736 0.164 3.210 0.081 2.526 0.083

Where did you pull that from?

I'd love to look at all of the basins

The GFS and Euro both break out a big torch

ClassiC stalled vortex to the South pumping warm moist air into GIS while a major ridge sits on top.

The models show days on end with 5-10C 850s along the W/SW/SE coast of GIS.

this is the classic major melt signal.

I'd expect albedo to plummet with major melt ponds before July 1