SleetStormNJ

Significant western lean on the GEFS cluster there.

Verbatim - wallops some of the areas that kind of got fringed on this storm/gives nice event to ENJ/NE NJ into LI/CT/MASS.

Early but QPF estimates on this run about 1.1-1.4 for areas.  Quick mover (about 12 hours).

8 minutes ago, Eduardo said:

I didn't think it was possible until DC went through Snowmageddon in 09-10.  If they are susceptible to a blizzard parade, then so are we!  Here's to hoping! 

Whoops - 2009-2010 - that's right.

We did well in both those winters too - but DC cashed in big on the Dec '09 and then again in the 1st week of February and even got in on action a bit in the one we finally got hit with a week later.

Never say never for a couple big ones in single winter/timeframe.  North mid-atlantic is kind of overdue for a DC (2010-2011) or Boston (back in mid 2010s (can't remember if 2013-2014 or 2014-15) winter......

February looks promising for a few threats over coming 2-3 weeks.

Some places in Union County by me already have 16 inches...........We'll easily hit/break over 20".

5 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

12" in Garwood, Central Union County NJ by 11:30AM.  Snow almost looked like a little semi melted refrozen flakes mixed in?  Anybody see an additional foot for this area?  Seems the most intense banding has worked inland.

Not far from you and easily have 16-17 inches.  I think 12-16 more will be tough but can see an easy 6-10 more.

History in the making.........again.  Wow.

Heavy Snow, Wind, Visibility close to nil.  Kenilworth, NJ.  26 degrees.  Approximately 9-10 inches on ground (measurement avg came out to about 9.7-9.8).

NAM is ridiculous - if it verifies, thats an easy 24-32 jackpot zone for EPA/NC/N-NJ, SNY/HV into portions of NYC/LI and SW CT.

Going to be some intermittent snow bands in our area throughout until evening.  More moderate snow won't come until late overnight/early morning hours tomorrow and then the show really comes during day into afternoon/evening.

20 degrees in Kenilworth, NJ currently.  Can feel storm coming (air and can feel it in my bones!)

Just now, SnowGoose69 said:

This continues to look like 1983 in a 2021 climate.  The evolution of the storm itself isn’t really close to 83 at all but that easterly inflow jet is.  

I'm impressed with the continued moisture transport/frontogenesis features - somebody is going to get clobbered.

7 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Guaranteed that snow Tuesday has some areas of decent rates in it.  It won’t be 1 plus an hour but typically those areas even in a system undergoing occlusion end up a bit better than modeled a lot of the time 

I will say a lot of our big ones that were Miller Bs tend to have a signature of consistent/longer snow like this.  (Corrected - Miller Bs).  Remember Jan 2005 as an example for the North Jersey crowd.

6 minutes ago, Rjay said:

See ya later Jamal

That's got to be a Tony dupe, right?

10 minutes ago, USCG RS said:

Anthony's a met in his own mind.... 

Well the NAM appears to be running these days out of his basement, so.....

Just now, Rjay said:

❤

 

Gorgeous.  It literally snows in northern NJ like 36 hrs straight.

Just now, Metsfan said:

Dude I think he is banned, but years ago.

He posts under MJO tag now.

NAM is kind of the only model though that shows the drop in PA and favors later coastal CCB development.  Have to watch that into runs of other models and tomorrow’s midday cycles.  

1 minute ago, TriPol said:

Any updates on the NAM?

Only Ant trying to hack it over and over again so his call looks conservative.

I’m too lazy maybe to look officially but wasn’t the Feb 2013 monster that dumped LI and CT a Miller B? 

Just now, jm1220 said:

This isn't a miller A. It's a miller B transferring storm. 

That’s inferred in my post.  I assume most of us are caught up on the Miller classifications.  If not, I’ve seen some good Miller Bs for my area in NJ.  Dec 2003, Jan 2005, couple last decade of variety in scale, and even fringed on a few that slammed LI late the last decade.  

One thing I have learned with setups like these more so than Miller As is expect to be on edge of seat either way and surprised. Some develop too slowly or have sloppy transfer/development and others just explode.  

12 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We will want to see what the 12z Euro does. 

Agreed.  One commonality that is significant in all the models now is the stronger frontogenesis and moisture transport and thus QPF on the models.  Another thing to watch.   Getting a feeling some locations in PA are going to get the 30” marker.

4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The sensitivity seems to be how fast the trough goes neutral tilt. The NAM is more positive tilt than the CMC, so it has had a colder track further east. The NAM seems to be closer to consensus so far today than the GEM.

The Euro made significant shifts in that direction too after holding steady days earlier contesting the GFS solution a bit.

Way too early for people living and dying by model runs folks.  This still has a good 2 plus day chunk to evolve.  It's like people don't learn from the past and thus repeat this weird self-abusing psychological game.

Very bullish on this threat.  Lots of ingredients are there.  Feel confident in at least some kind of storm and significant weather impact.  Still time to go and of course the swings people feel with modelology, but the ULL/bowling ball look is promising.

1 minute ago, mikem81 said:

Right. That will prob be number 1 all time for a while.....

In our crazy climate, i would bet it gets challenged within the next 10 years and would gamble it gets replaced within 20.