SleetStormNJ

1 minute ago, eduggs said:

The BOS radar just pisses me off. I don't think I've ever experienced anything like that. Never in the right place at the right time. No risk of rain or taint, no risk the band just passes through, and hour after hour of cold powdery dentrite dumpage during daytime on a weekend!!

I haven't experienced even moderate intensity of snowfall at any moment during daytime this winter.

Be patient young Jedi.  

2 minutes ago, eduggs said:

Measured about 3.5" in central Morris County. Relatively minor impact here. Only light snow observed. Could be a little subsidence going on locally. It has been a winter of light events.

But it has been a perfect Saturday morning for long snow walks! 

Yup.  Enough for a jebwalk or two.  We will get “ours” again eventually.

1 minute ago, weatherpruf said:

I think parts of NNJ did better than I expected, while in my area we did a little worse; but it wasn't really a bust as we were never expected to get giant amounts, though 8-10 was on the table. A little jog west of those bands would have done it.

Yup.  Models honed in on a sharp cut off and wall last 24-36 hours before onset.  Nice prolonged light to moderate snow event with some wind for us nonetheless but this one had looks of eastern areas special written on it for a few days.

We will have to wait and be patient for our next MECS/HECS here.

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

NWS now calling for 24-30 for Boston

HECS up there and on Cape/E. LI.  Up there with some other big ones now for sure and amazing how many just in last 20-25 years.

1 minute ago, Rjay said:

 picked up 1.5" in about 20 minutes 

Enjoy it man!  Memorable one for you guys out there.

13 minutes ago, Will - Rutgers said:

i believe Piscataway has something like 4-6, lot of drifting

Yup.  Weak sauce up here in Union County.  Maybe six or seven inches.  This was a significant event but nothing more here in Central/Northern Jersey.

Glad for LI and Coastal crew.  Hope we get something else big over next six weeks for those that missed out.

3 minutes ago, TheManWithNoFace said:

If you look at some of the QPF outputs on the mesos, there are some indications of a local qpf max in NWNJ or nePA. I have a hunch we might have a dual band feature with this, and Sussex/Warren might actually wind up with more thank Hunterdon/Somerset, which would sit in subsidence between bands. 

Yes.  Will be interesting to see where the western band sits.  Usually delivers goods with fronto/forcing and better ratios away from coast.  Can't read snowmaps verbatim.

Just now, weatherpruf said:

It moved west, it moved east...NWS still going 5-9 last I checked for my area just west of SI. Hope to do a little better, not worried about not seeing 2 feet. 10-12 would be great, pure gravy. At this point we have to let it just roll and see what happens.

I like where you sit in this setup.  You've done well on some of these tight gradient coastals over the years.  

Have to keep in mind the banding features.  We won't know the exact orientation/pivot until it's happening.  The mesoscale mauler of Feb 2006 comes to mind, along with Boxing Day and March '18.

Have to avoid getting sucked into run to run windshield wiper effect.  We need to start measuring model pinpoints and actual observations.  No bets are off the table.  Seen so many big storms in past with surprises in terms of track, banding, gravity wave enhancement, dry-slots, winds.  

One thing impressive regardless is the modeling in almost all cases are projecting some serious sustained winds and gusts for coastal areas - NJ/LI and out to RI/Cape.

2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

I’m more glad that the east/sloppier trend on the Euro reversed. There’s still plenty of time for improvements. This definitely ain’t the final verdict here. 

Definitely either way.  This is going to be a tightrope walk and watch situation as these coastals often are.  Boxing Day and Jan 2015 come to mind quite a bit, but even some of the big ones we had in March the last five years or so ended up being a nowcast situation where the bands set up and pivoShow Repliest.  A 25-30 mile difference or edge west or east makes big differences.

1 minute ago, Juliancolton said:

In whatever the hell this model is, we trust. 

Looks like a dual paintbrush/model hack job by Ant.  Goodness.

For good chunk of NJ, Ida (even if remnants) will go up right with Sandy and Floyd in top 3 of impacts over last 30 years (Isaias and Irene not far behind).  Sadly, these events are coming closer together in time and with dramatic broader and intensity level impacts (wind or rain/flood, surge) respectively.

45 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Cranford, NJ is under water

People sitting on their roofs

Ch7 is live  there

Insane flooding there

Yup.  I'm in Kenilworth right nearby and I lucked out, but all towns around me have spots where houses took on major water in basement (either creek, culvert, or just simply stormwater backup).  Can hear the choppers surveying impacts.

Parts of CT look to be in deluge now.

Parts of Union County NJ reporting around 6-8 inches already (Cranford, Roselle, Roselle Park areas).

1 minute ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

look like we are missing a lot of this here on long island. slightly relieved

Don't count your chickens too early this evening.

This is going to be bad for C/N NJ.

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

6.08” now Harrison, NJ wxflow

https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KNJHARRI36/table/2021-09-1/2021-09-1/daily

PRECIP ACCUM

6.08 in

They are in trouble.

Just like in winter have to avoid model ping pong and observe trends, one, verification data.  Wide spread locally still on table through tomorrow.  

Do think there is a nice swath that’s going to pounded W/SW of the low once it hooks with a ton of rain in quick period Sunday/evening.

Going to be a lot of bad flooding tonight and early AM tomorrow.  Lots of places saturated already with drainage issues/soil saturation. 

Development/streak occurring as Walt suggested down in N-VA/Maryland area moving towards and along I-95.

2 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

Winter Storm Warning canceled here and replaced with a Winter Weather Advisory in effect until 7 pm Friday for an additional 1-3" of snow and one tenth of an inch of ice.

Makes sense.  Kind of a two-part scenario and longer duration between.  

Good work by NWS yet again up and down area.

Just now, Dark Star said:

Only the slightest of sleet 2 miles from ya for the last half hour.  Maybe we got 3"?  Very disappointed, was hoping for 6" +, because I'm a greedy duck.  Only reason we got warm air intrusion is because the precip slacked off too quick.

I measured about 3.7-3.8 before compaction.

Yeah - a bit of an "under" but not a terrible winter event, definite winter feel still out there.   Looks like some possibility of some nuisance precip through this evening.