mrdaddyman

22 minutes ago, packbacker said:

Cut off as it approaches but then opens up.  Should be some solid rain, I would hope.  Wash all this salt away.

Where is the LP at the surface usually located if you are looking at the 500MB Vort map such as above? Been wondering where it translates to at the surface.

2 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

Yeah, with the snow cover to the north, cold, dry air transport into the area should be efficient.  The timing of all of these features is critical, as always, but I’m sure the Cadding is underdone on the globals.  If you’re going to be stuck with insitu, this is about as good of a setup as you can hope for.  Just have to get that high to hang on a bit longer and the precip to move in a bit faster...all doable over the next few days.  Also, the track of the system is pretty good.  I’ve seen a lot worse.

Running a trend loop on the GFS shows the HP inching back towards NC. I agree with the track. Think this is doable and will look better come game time.

Congrats to those of you that didn't have a thing forecast and ended up with half a foot. My snow shield almost prevented me from getting anything but I still ended up with 1/4" which didn't even cover everything. Going on my 4th winter now with less than an inch for the whole winter. Unbelievable. Snows North, South, East, and West of me and I'm beginning to wonder if it can actually snow here more than a dusting anymore. One more thing. I'm glad that those of you that whined all day about busting got your almost foot of snow. Please carry that crap to the banter thread next time.

12Z GGEM shows a big slop fest with ice to rain for the SE at day 10. I'm sure that will probably verify.

4 hours ago, HKY_WX said:

You could see this coming based on the upper low track. Pretty classic one for the northern deep south and mountains/foothills. It's really tough to get a snow or ice storm outside of the hills without more sfc cold than this system had. That said, that system coming out of the plains I mentioned a few days ago is going to re-energize the upper levels /sfc low tomorrow morning and will likely spark a deformation type band that will rotate out of the Piedmont. Could see a few hours of light snow in the morning.

You know, I read this a lot on this board but therein lies the rub. If we have more cold air accompanied by a strong HP, it seems to push the moisture SE with it and we get a weak under-performing, unimpressive, strung out mess. Those of us that live in central NC can't seem to win either way. I remember the big snows around here when I was young but it seems like the last several years we can't even buy one.

20 minutes ago, LovingGulfLows said:

 

Surprised you're still so hung up on the GEFS...it was a huge failure last winter. Every member had me getting at least 2 inches of snow in the January storm. Nada.

Yeah. We're close enough to the storm that it's time to start looking closer at the higher resolution models.

15 minutes ago, snowlover91 said:

I think quite a few would be happy if this verified...

 

What model is this?

Does anyone know whether the "Snow Depth" output or the "Kuchera" output on the model maps is more accurate? It's very confusing because the Snow Depth output is often more than the "Kuchera" output for the same time period. Are they just 2 separate methods that are calculated differently or are they supposed to be related somehow? Any ideas from you veterans?

15 minutes ago, burrel2 said:

Most of the ensemble members on the GFS are more bullsh with the westward extent of the precip shield compared to the OP. Maybe the JMA is on to something!

If the JMA is right my neighbor Cold Rain and I will be watching a cold rain. That's not a good track for central NC. Too close to the coast.

Everybody just loves to trash the NAM but it is excellent with sniffing out a warm nose. It hasn't missed one yet in the last 5+ years for MBY. Don't discount it. That would be very unwise.

Just now, msuwx said:

Precip shield shifted NW 20-40 miles this run. Not bad.

So did the warm air.

Just now, Cold Rain said:

With this kind of an extremely marginal setup, that would be solid rain for RDU.  0.7 is too warm.

It's really hard to beat climo but hopefully the NAM is overly amped up.

I'm going to have to quit looking at Twitter for a while. Every time I look at it someone in the NE is posting about the 15 snowstorms they're going to get the next 2 weeks.

GFS shows a second snowstorm next week for . . . the MA/NE.  Congratulations on your 2 feet of snow with those storms while most of our forum sits here with less than an inch for the whole winter. I can already hear JB crowing about how he got his winter forecast right.

So we went from no storm on the Euro and a LP way off the SE Florida coast on the GFS to . . . an Apps Runner on both, in less than 24 hours. That's just crazy.