SmokeEater

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DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1230 PM CDT MON APR 25 2011 VALID 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE TUE/TUE NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF ARKANSAS...PARTS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS...NORTHERN LOUISIANA...NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...NORTHWEST ALABAMA....WESTERN TENNESSEE...PARTS OF THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MODERATE RISK AREA...FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND APPALACHIANS... ...SYNOPSIS... A COUPLE OF SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN A STRONG UPPER JET NOSING INLAND OFF THE PACIFIC WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO CONTRIBUTE TO THE EVOLUTION OF A LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. ONE IMPULSE IS ALREADY DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND EXPECTED TO SUPPORT LOW/MID-LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. AS DOWNSTREAM RIDGING REMAINS STRONG OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD...MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE INITIAL IMPULSE WILL PIVOT AROUND THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION...WITH THE SURFACE CYCLONE OCCLUDING AND GRADUALLY WEAKENING LATER TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...A STRONGER UPSTREAM IMPULSE IS PROGGED TO DIG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND PLAINS...THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...CONTRIBUTING TO SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY AREA INTO THE OZARK PLATEAU. GIVEN FAVORABLE LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION... STRONG SHEAR...AND A MOIST RETURN FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO... ASSOCIATED WITH THE EVOLVING PATTERN...CONDITIONS MAY BECOME INCREASINGLY SUPPORTIVE FOR A MAJOR OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THIS COULD POTENTIALLY IMPACT A RATHER BROAD AREA OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S...WITH THE RISK FOR TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. REMNANTS OF DAY 1 CONVECTION...WHICH COULD BE CONSIDERABLE NEAR EAST OF THE MID AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...POSE THE PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO THE MAGNITUDE AND EXTENT OF THIS POTENTIAL. IT IS STILL UNCLEAR HOW MUCH IMPACT THAT THIS WILL HAVE ON SUBSEQUENT DESTABILIZATION...BUT THIS SHOULD MOSTLY AFFECT AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WHERE /MODERATE RISK/ PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED AND EXPANDED A BIT NORTHWARD AND EASTWARD. ...GREAT LAKES/OH AND TN VALLEYS INTO APPALACHIANS... GUIDANCE REMAINS STRONGLY SUGGESTIVE THAT OUTFLOW FROM REMNANTS OF OVERNIGHT CONVECTION MAY BE ADVANCING EASTWARD THROUGH PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND MIDDLE TENNESSEE...WHILE SLOWING AND STALLING ACROSS NORTHWESTERN ALABAMA AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI INTO THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE ARKLATEX...AT 12Z TUESDAY. WHILE STRONGER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE INITIAL UPPER IMPULSE TENDS TO LIFT NORTHWARD TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE DAY...AWAY FROM THE OUTFLOW...IT CURRENTLY APPEARS THAT INSOLATION AHEAD OF THE CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK TO MODERATE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO CONTRIBUTE TO REDEVELOPMENT AND INTENSIFICATION OF STORMS AS THE BOUNDARY ADVANCES TOWARD THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS. ALTHOUGH MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE PRE-COLD FRONTAL SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL TEND TO WEAKEN ACROSS THIS REGION THROUGH THE DAY...VERTICAL SHEAR STILL SEEMS LIKELY TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED STRONG/SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT...INCLUDING THE RISK FOR SUPERCELLS. DESTABILIZATION ALONG THE COLD FRONT...ACROSS PARTS OF LOWER MICHIGAN INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...IS MORE UNCERTAIN DO TO THE POSSIBILITY OF LINGERING CLOUD COVER/PRECIPITATION. BUT...IF IT OCCURS...ADDITIONAL STRONG/SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ...SOUTHERN PLAINS/ARKLATEX INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL AND FLOW FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING IMPULSE MAY NOT IMPACT THE WARM SECTOR...AND THE PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT NORTH OF THE OUTFLOW...UNTIL THE 27/00-03Z TIME FRAME TUESDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...MODELS DO SUGGEST THAT INSOLATION ALONG AND NORTH OF THE RETREATING OUTFLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE TO STRONG DESTABILIZATION BENEATH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...WHICH PROBABLY WILL NOT STABILIZE MUCH DURING THE EVENING. COUPLED WITH ENLARGING...CLOCKWISE CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS NEAR AND BENEATH A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET /50-60+ KT AT 850 MB/...CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY TO BECOME CONDUCIVE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF ORGANIZED SEVERE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...INCLUDING POTENTIALLY LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG TORNADOES. THIS THREAT MAY PERSIST DEEP INTO THE EVENING...PERHAPS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...SPREADING EAST NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. ..KERR.. 04/25/2011