SmokeEater

81 mph wind report from Monroe, LA.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS 1253 AM CDT WED APR 27 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... HOLMES COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI... THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF THORNTON... SOUTHERN HUMPHREYS COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI... NORTHERN YAZOO COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI... THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF YAZOO CITY... EASTERN SHARKEY COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI... * UNTIL 145 AM CDT * AT 1252 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF HOLLY BLUFF MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH. * OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO MIDNIGHT...BENTON...MIDWAY...COXBURG...TOLARVILLE...TCHULA... HOWARD...EBENEZER...BROZVILLE...LEXINGTON AND FRANKLIN THIS STORM HAS ALREADY PRODUCED DAMAGE ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN MISSISSIPPI AND NORTHEASTERN LOUISIANA!

Yazoo cell.

Live streaming out of Jackson, MS. http://www.wapt.com/video/4906971/detail.html

Yazoo City gonna be under the gun shortly.

That's awful balsy, considering not one single outbreak since then came anywhere near 6 F5's in any one event.

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0100 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2011 VALID 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE...NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...THE NORTHERN HALF OF ALABAMA...AND NORTHWEST GEORGIA... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION SWWD TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SYNOPSIS... A LARGE UPPER TROUGH INITIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. IS FORECAST TO MAKE SLOW BUT STEADY EWD PROGRESS THIS PERIOD...WITH A POTENT SPEED MAX FORECAST TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND SHIFT ACROSS THE MID SOUTH INTO THE OH VALLEY REGION WITH TIME. AT THE SURFACE...A DEEPENING LOW IS FORECAST TO SHIFT FROM THE VICINITY OF AR EARLY NNEWD TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WHILE A TRAILING COLD FRONT ACCELERATES EWD ACROSS THE OH/TN/MID AND LOWER MS VALLEYS. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE APPALACHIANS -- WITH A ZONE BETWEEN THE MS RIVER AND THE APPALACHIAN CREST LIKELY TO SEE A WIDESPREAD/POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SEVERE WEATHER EVENT THIS PERIOD. ...LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION SWWD TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... ***POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT/WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER EVENT -- INCLUDING THE POSSIBILITY OF A TORNADO OUTBREAK -- REMAINS EVIDENT THIS FORECAST...CENTERED ON THE MID SOUTH/TN VALLEY AREA.*** SOME QUESTIONS EXIST ATTM WITH RESPECT TO CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION THIS PERIOD...CENTERED AROUND THE ONGOING STORMS PROGGED TO BE SHIFTING ACROSS ERN AR AND INTO WRN TN/NRN MS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. WHILE THE COVERAGE AND PROGRESSION OF THIS CONVECTION COULD HAVE EFFECTS ON TIMING/LOCATION OF LATER DAY STORMS AS WELL AS THE QUALITY OF AIRMASS IN SOME AREAS...IT APPEARS ATTM THAT EARLY STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE ENEWD ACROSS WRN KY/WRN TN/NRN MS THROUGH THE MORNING...POSSIBLY WEAKENING SOME WITH TIME. HOWEVER...AS HEATING OF THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER COMMENCES AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER FEATURE AND AWAY FROM ANY CONVECTIVELY-COOLED AREAS...STORM REINTENSIFICATION AND NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE LIKELY BY EARLY AFTERNOON. STRONG SLY SURFACE FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT INCREASING TO 80 TO 100 KT FROM THE SW AT MID LEVELS WILL PROVIDE SHEAR HIGHLY FAVORABLE FOR VERY INTENSE/LONG-LIVED ROTATING UPDRAFTS. THIS -- COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...APPEARS SUPPORTIVE OF SIGNIFICANT LONG-TRACK TORNADOES AND -- DEPENDING UPON STORM MODE -- THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD/VERY DAMAGING WINDS ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL. ATTM...GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES APPEARS TO EXIST ACROSS TN/KY/NRN MS AND NRN AND CENTRAL AL...WHILE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE -- ALONG WITH TORNADO THREAT -- WILL EXTEND NNEWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AHEAD OF THE FRONT. OVERNIGHT...SOME TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE...THOUGH STORMS MAY BECOME MORE LINEAR AHEAD OF THE ACCELERATING FRONT AS IT MOVES TO -- AND POSSIBLY ACROSS -- THE APPALACHIANS. EXPECT POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS TO PERSIST WITH THE CONVECTIVE LINE...GIVEN THE OVERALL STRENGTH OF THE LARGE-SCALE SYSTEM. ..GOSS.. 04/26/2011

Nah, loading right up for me.

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1230 PM CDT MON APR 25 2011 VALID 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE TUE/TUE NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF ARKANSAS...PARTS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS...NORTHERN LOUISIANA...NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...NORTHWEST ALABAMA....WESTERN TENNESSEE...PARTS OF THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MODERATE RISK AREA...FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND APPALACHIANS... ...SYNOPSIS... A COUPLE OF SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN A STRONG UPPER JET NOSING INLAND OFF THE PACIFIC WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO CONTRIBUTE TO THE EVOLUTION OF A LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. ONE IMPULSE IS ALREADY DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND EXPECTED TO SUPPORT LOW/MID-LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. AS DOWNSTREAM RIDGING REMAINS STRONG OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD...MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE INITIAL IMPULSE WILL PIVOT AROUND THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION...WITH THE SURFACE CYCLONE OCCLUDING AND GRADUALLY WEAKENING LATER TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...A STRONGER UPSTREAM IMPULSE IS PROGGED TO DIG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND PLAINS...THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...CONTRIBUTING TO SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY AREA INTO THE OZARK PLATEAU. GIVEN FAVORABLE LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION... STRONG SHEAR...AND A MOIST RETURN FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO... ASSOCIATED WITH THE EVOLVING PATTERN...CONDITIONS MAY BECOME INCREASINGLY SUPPORTIVE FOR A MAJOR OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THIS COULD POTENTIALLY IMPACT A RATHER BROAD AREA OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S...WITH THE RISK FOR TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. REMNANTS OF DAY 1 CONVECTION...WHICH COULD BE CONSIDERABLE NEAR EAST OF THE MID AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...POSE THE PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO THE MAGNITUDE AND EXTENT OF THIS POTENTIAL. IT IS STILL UNCLEAR HOW MUCH IMPACT THAT THIS WILL HAVE ON SUBSEQUENT DESTABILIZATION...BUT THIS SHOULD MOSTLY AFFECT AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WHERE /MODERATE RISK/ PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED AND EXPANDED A BIT NORTHWARD AND EASTWARD. ...GREAT LAKES/OH AND TN VALLEYS INTO APPALACHIANS... GUIDANCE REMAINS STRONGLY SUGGESTIVE THAT OUTFLOW FROM REMNANTS OF OVERNIGHT CONVECTION MAY BE ADVANCING EASTWARD THROUGH PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND MIDDLE TENNESSEE...WHILE SLOWING AND STALLING ACROSS NORTHWESTERN ALABAMA AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI INTO THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE ARKLATEX...AT 12Z TUESDAY. WHILE STRONGER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE INITIAL UPPER IMPULSE TENDS TO LIFT NORTHWARD TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE DAY...AWAY FROM THE OUTFLOW...IT CURRENTLY APPEARS THAT INSOLATION AHEAD OF THE CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK TO MODERATE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO CONTRIBUTE TO REDEVELOPMENT AND INTENSIFICATION OF STORMS AS THE BOUNDARY ADVANCES TOWARD THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS. ALTHOUGH MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE PRE-COLD FRONTAL SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL TEND TO WEAKEN ACROSS THIS REGION THROUGH THE DAY...VERTICAL SHEAR STILL SEEMS LIKELY TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED STRONG/SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT...INCLUDING THE RISK FOR SUPERCELLS. DESTABILIZATION ALONG THE COLD FRONT...ACROSS PARTS OF LOWER MICHIGAN INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...IS MORE UNCERTAIN DO TO THE POSSIBILITY OF LINGERING CLOUD COVER/PRECIPITATION. BUT...IF IT OCCURS...ADDITIONAL STRONG/SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ...SOUTHERN PLAINS/ARKLATEX INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL AND FLOW FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING IMPULSE MAY NOT IMPACT THE WARM SECTOR...AND THE PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT NORTH OF THE OUTFLOW...UNTIL THE 27/00-03Z TIME FRAME TUESDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...MODELS DO SUGGEST THAT INSOLATION ALONG AND NORTH OF THE RETREATING OUTFLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE TO STRONG DESTABILIZATION BENEATH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...WHICH PROBABLY WILL NOT STABILIZE MUCH DURING THE EVENING. COUPLED WITH ENLARGING...CLOCKWISE CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS NEAR AND BENEATH A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET /50-60+ KT AT 850 MB/...CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY TO BECOME CONDUCIVE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF ORGANIZED SEVERE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...INCLUDING POTENTIALLY LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG TORNADOES. THIS THREAT MAY PERSIST DEEP INTO THE EVENING...PERHAPS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...SPREADING EAST NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. ..KERR.. 04/25/2011