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SmokeEater

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  1. SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT

    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL

    633 AM CDT WED APR 27 2011

    ALC043-095-103-271145-

    /O.CON.KHUN.TO.W.0042.000000T0000Z-110427T1145Z/

    MORGAN AL-CULLMAN AL-MARSHALL AL-

    633 AM CDT WED APR 27 2011

    ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 645 AM CDT FOR WEST

    CENTRAL MARSHALL...NORTHEASTERN CULLMAN AND SOUTHEASTERN MORGAN

    COUNTIES...

    AT 630 AM CDT...THE PUBLIC REPORTED TWO BARNS BLOWN DOWN NEAR HOLLY

    POND.

  2. BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

    TORNADO WARNING

    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL

    637 AM CDT WED APR 27 2011

    THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HUNTSVILLE HAS ISSUED A

    * TORNADO WARNING FOR...

    SOUTHEASTERN MADISON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...

    SOUTHWESTERN JACKSON COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ALABAMA...

    NORTHERN MARSHALL COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ALABAMA...

    * UNTIL 700 AM CDT

    * AT 630 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING

    MULTIPLE TORNADIC CIRCULATIONS NEAR GUNTERSVILLE AND UNION

    GROVE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH. THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF

    PRODUCING DAMAGE WITH WALL CLOUDS CURRENTLY REPORTED NEAR ARAB.

    * LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS TORNADO INCLUDE...

    COLUMBUS CITY.

    GRANT.

    LANGSTON.

    SECTION.

    SCOTTSBORO.

  3. SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT

    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL

    616 AM CDT WED APR 27 2011

    ALC043-095-103-271145-

    /O.CON.KHUN.TO.W.0042.000000T0000Z-110427T1145Z/

    MORGAN AL-CULLMAN AL-MARSHALL AL-

    616 AM CDT WED APR 27 2011

    ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 645 AM CDT FOR WEST

    CENTRAL MARSHALL...NORTHEASTERN CULLMAN AND SOUTHEASTERN MORGAN

    COUNTIES...

    AT 614 AM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS HAVE REPORTED MULTIPLE

    TREES DOWN AND DAMAGED BUILDINGS IN HANCEVILLE ASSOCIATED WITH A

    POSSIBLE TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR WALTER MOVING

    NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

    OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO

    FAIRVIEW...EVA...BAILEYTON...HULACO...FLORETTE...RYAN CROSSROADS...

    JOPPA...ARAB...EDDY...MORGAN CITY AND UNION GROVE.

    PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

    THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING SITUATION. THIS

    STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG TO VIOLENT TORNADOES.

  4. BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

    TORNADO WARNING

    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL

    609 AM CDT WED APR 27 2011

    THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HUNTSVILLE HAS ISSUED A

    * TORNADO WARNING FOR...

    NORTHEASTERN CULLMAN COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...

    SOUTHEASTERN MORGAN COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...

    WEST CENTRAL MARSHALL COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ALABAMA...

    * UNTIL 645 AM CDT

    * AT 606 AM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED DAMAGE

    ASSOCIATED WITH A POSSIBLE TORNADO NEAR CULLMAN...MOVING NORTHEAST

    AT 70 MPH.

    * LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS TORNADO INCLUDE...

    HULACO.

    RYAN CROSSROADS.

    MORGAN CITY.

    PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

    THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING SITUATION. THIS

    STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG TO VIOLENT TORNADOES.

  5. BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

    TORNADO WARNING

    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL

    611 AM CDT WED APR 27 2011

    THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HUNTSVILLE HAS ISSUED A

    * TORNADO WARNING FOR...

    NORTHERN FRANKLIN COUNTY IN TENNESSEE...

    * UNTIL 645 AM CDT

    * AT 609 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING

    NEAR LOIS...OR JUST SOUTHWEST OF LYNCHBURG...MOVING NORTHEAST AT

    55 MPH. WIDESPREAD AND SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE HAS BEEN REPORTED WITH

    THIS STORM. THIS IS A LIFE THREATENING SITUATION.

    * LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS TORNADO INCLUDE...

    OAK GROVE.

    WOODS RESERVOIR.

    ALTO.

    PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

    A TORNADO HAS BEEN CONFIRMED. TAKE COVER IMMEDIATELY! DO NOT RUN

    OUTSIDE TO FIND THE TORNADO...THIS IS A DANGEROUS AND POTENTIALLY

    LIFE THREATENING SITUATION!

  6. Strong couplet heading right for downtown Birmingham.

    BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

    TORNADO WARNING

    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL

    529 AM CDT WED APR 27 2011

    THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A

    * TORNADO WARNING FOR...

    NORTH CENTRAL BIBB COUNTY IN CENTRAL ALABAMA...

    SOUTHERN JEFFERSON COUNTY IN CENTRAL ALABAMA...

    CENTRAL SHELBY COUNTY IN CENTRAL ALABAMA...

    EAST CENTRAL TUSCALOOSA COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA...

    * UNTIL 600 AM CDT

    * AT 529 AM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDICATED A SEVERE

    THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM

    WAS LOCATED NEAR WOODSTOCK JUNCTION...OR 17 MILES SOUTHWEST OF

    BESSEMER...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 70 MPH.

    * THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...

    BESSEMER AND ALABAMA ADVENTURE AROUND 540 AM CDT.

    RIVERCHASE GALLERIA...HOOVER...REGIONS PARK OR HOOVER MET AND

    RIVERCHASE AROUND 545 AM CDT.

    INDIAN SPRINGS VILLAGE...VESTAVIA HILLS...OAK MOUNTAIN STATE PARK

    AND SAMFORD UNIVERSITY AROUND 550 AM CDT.

    OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS DANGEROUS STORM INCLUDE MCCALLA...

    MCADORY...BESSEMER AIRPORT...JOE TUCKER PARK...SHANNON AND GOAT

    ISLAND AT LAKE PURDY.

  7. BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

    TORNADO WARNING

    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS

    1253 AM CDT WED APR 27 2011

    THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A

    * TORNADO WARNING FOR...

    HOLMES COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...

    THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF THORNTON...

    SOUTHERN HUMPHREYS COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...

    NORTHERN YAZOO COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...

    THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF YAZOO CITY...

    EASTERN SHARKEY COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...

    * UNTIL 145 AM CDT

    * AT 1252 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A

    SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 6 MILES

    NORTHWEST OF HOLLY BLUFF MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

    * OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO

    MIDNIGHT...BENTON...MIDWAY...COXBURG...TOLARVILLE...TCHULA...

    HOWARD...EBENEZER...BROZVILLE...LEXINGTON AND FRANKLIN

    THIS STORM HAS ALREADY PRODUCED DAMAGE ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN

    MISSISSIPPI AND NORTHEASTERN LOUISIANA!

  8. DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

    NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

    0100 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2011

    VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

    ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF

    KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE...NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL

    MISSISSIPPI...THE NORTHERN HALF OF ALABAMA...AND NORTHWEST

    GEORGIA...

    ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES

    REGION SWWD TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...

    ...SYNOPSIS...

    A LARGE UPPER TROUGH INITIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. IS FORECAST TO

    MAKE SLOW BUT STEADY EWD PROGRESS THIS PERIOD...WITH A POTENT SPEED

    MAX FORECAST TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND SHIFT ACROSS THE

    MID SOUTH INTO THE OH VALLEY REGION WITH TIME.

    AT THE SURFACE...A DEEPENING LOW IS FORECAST TO SHIFT FROM THE

    VICINITY OF AR EARLY NNEWD TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WHILE A

    TRAILING COLD FRONT ACCELERATES EWD ACROSS THE OH/TN/MID AND LOWER

    MS VALLEYS. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE

    APPALACHIANS -- WITH A ZONE BETWEEN THE MS RIVER AND THE APPALACHIAN

    CREST LIKELY TO SEE A WIDESPREAD/POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SEVERE

    WEATHER EVENT THIS PERIOD.

    ...LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION SWWD TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...

    ***POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT/WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER EVENT --

    INCLUDING THE POSSIBILITY OF A TORNADO OUTBREAK -- REMAINS EVIDENT

    THIS FORECAST...CENTERED ON THE MID SOUTH/TN VALLEY AREA.***

    SOME QUESTIONS EXIST ATTM WITH RESPECT TO CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION THIS

    PERIOD...CENTERED AROUND THE ONGOING STORMS PROGGED TO BE SHIFTING

    ACROSS ERN AR AND INTO WRN TN/NRN MS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD.

    WHILE THE COVERAGE AND PROGRESSION OF THIS CONVECTION COULD HAVE

    EFFECTS ON TIMING/LOCATION OF LATER DAY STORMS AS WELL AS THE

    QUALITY OF AIRMASS IN SOME AREAS...IT APPEARS ATTM THAT EARLY STORMS

    SHOULD CONTINUE ENEWD ACROSS WRN KY/WRN TN/NRN MS THROUGH THE

    MORNING...POSSIBLY WEAKENING SOME WITH TIME.

    HOWEVER...AS HEATING OF THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER COMMENCES AHEAD OF

    THE ADVANCING FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER FEATURE AND AWAY FROM ANY

    CONVECTIVELY-COOLED AREAS...STORM REINTENSIFICATION AND NEW STORM

    DEVELOPMENT WILL BE LIKELY BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

    STRONG SLY SURFACE FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT INCREASING TO 80 TO 100

    KT FROM THE SW AT MID LEVELS WILL PROVIDE SHEAR HIGHLY FAVORABLE FOR

    VERY INTENSE/LONG-LIVED ROTATING UPDRAFTS. THIS -- COMBINED WITH

    FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...APPEARS SUPPORTIVE OF

    SIGNIFICANT LONG-TRACK TORNADOES AND -- DEPENDING UPON STORM MODE --

    THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD/VERY DAMAGING WINDS ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL.

    ATTM...GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES APPEARS TO EXIST ACROSS

    TN/KY/NRN MS AND NRN AND CENTRAL AL...WHILE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD

    WIND DAMAGE -- ALONG WITH TORNADO THREAT -- WILL EXTEND NNEWD ACROSS

    THE OH VALLEY TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AHEAD OF THE

    FRONT.

    OVERNIGHT...SOME TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE...THOUGH STORMS MAY

    BECOME MORE LINEAR AHEAD OF THE ACCELERATING FRONT AS IT MOVES TO --

    AND POSSIBLY ACROSS -- THE APPALACHIANS. EXPECT POTENTIAL FOR

    DAMAGING WINDS TO PERSIST WITH THE CONVECTIVE LINE...GIVEN THE

    OVERALL STRENGTH OF THE LARGE-SCALE SYSTEM.

    ..GOSS.. 04/26/2011

  9. DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

    NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

    1230 PM CDT MON APR 25 2011

    VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

    ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE TUE/TUE NIGHT ACROSS MUCH

    OF ARKANSAS...PARTS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS...NORTHERN

    LOUISIANA...NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...NORTHWEST ALABAMA....WESTERN

    TENNESSEE...PARTS OF THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...

    ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MODERATE RISK

    AREA...FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI

    VALLEY THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND APPALACHIANS...

    ...SYNOPSIS...

    A COUPLE OF SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN A STRONG

    UPPER JET NOSING INLAND OFF THE PACIFIC WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO

    CONTRIBUTE TO THE EVOLUTION OF A LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE

    CENTRAL U.S. THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. ONE IMPULSE IS ALREADY

    DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND EXPECTED TO SUPPORT

    LOW/MID-LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MISSOURI

    VALLEY INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY

    TUESDAY. AS DOWNSTREAM RIDGING REMAINS STRONG OFF THE ATLANTIC

    SEABOARD...MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE INITIAL IMPULSE WILL PIVOT AROUND

    THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC

    CIRCULATION...WITH THE SURFACE CYCLONE OCCLUDING AND GRADUALLY

    WEAKENING LATER TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...A

    STRONGER UPSTREAM IMPULSE IS PROGGED TO DIG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN

    ROCKIES AND PLAINS...THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI

    VALLEY...CONTRIBUTING TO SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE RED RIVER

    VALLEY AREA INTO THE OZARK PLATEAU.

    GIVEN FAVORABLE LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION...

    STRONG SHEAR...AND A MOIST RETURN FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO...

    ASSOCIATED WITH THE EVOLVING PATTERN...CONDITIONS MAY BECOME

    INCREASINGLY SUPPORTIVE FOR A MAJOR OUTBREAK OF SEVERE

    THUNDERSTORMS. THIS COULD POTENTIALLY IMPACT A RATHER BROAD AREA OF

    THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S...WITH THE RISK FOR TORNADOES...LARGE

    HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. REMNANTS OF DAY 1 CONVECTION...WHICH

    COULD BE CONSIDERABLE NEAR EAST OF THE MID AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI

    VALLEY...POSE THE PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO THE MAGNITUDE

    AND EXTENT OF THIS POTENTIAL. IT IS STILL UNCLEAR HOW MUCH IMPACT

    THAT THIS WILL HAVE ON SUBSEQUENT DESTABILIZATION...BUT THIS SHOULD

    MOSTLY AFFECT AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI

    VALLEY...WHERE /MODERATE RISK/ PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED

    AND EXPANDED A BIT NORTHWARD AND EASTWARD.

    ...GREAT LAKES/OH AND TN VALLEYS INTO APPALACHIANS...

    GUIDANCE REMAINS STRONGLY SUGGESTIVE THAT OUTFLOW FROM REMNANTS OF

    OVERNIGHT CONVECTION MAY BE ADVANCING EASTWARD THROUGH PORTIONS OF

    CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND MIDDLE TENNESSEE...WHILE SLOWING AND STALLING

    ACROSS NORTHWESTERN ALABAMA AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI INTO THE

    VICINITY OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE ARKLATEX...AT 12Z

    TUESDAY. WHILE STRONGER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE INITIAL UPPER

    IMPULSE TENDS TO LIFT NORTHWARD TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING

    THE DAY...AWAY FROM THE OUTFLOW...IT CURRENTLY APPEARS THAT

    INSOLATION AHEAD OF THE CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK

    TO MODERATE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO

    CONTRIBUTE TO REDEVELOPMENT AND INTENSIFICATION OF STORMS AS THE

    BOUNDARY ADVANCES TOWARD THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE WESTERN

    SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS. ALTHOUGH MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE

    PRE-COLD FRONTAL SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL TEND TO WEAKEN ACROSS

    THIS REGION THROUGH THE DAY...VERTICAL SHEAR STILL SEEMS LIKELY TO

    REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED STRONG/SEVERE STORM

    DEVELOPMENT...INCLUDING THE RISK FOR SUPERCELLS.

    DESTABILIZATION ALONG THE COLD FRONT...ACROSS PARTS OF LOWER

    MICHIGAN INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...IS MORE UNCERTAIN DO TO THE

    POSSIBILITY OF LINGERING CLOUD COVER/PRECIPITATION. BUT...IF IT

    OCCURS...ADDITIONAL STRONG/SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE LATE

    TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

    ...SOUTHERN PLAINS/ARKLATEX INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

    STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL AND FLOW FIELDS

    ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING IMPULSE MAY NOT IMPACT THE WARM

    SECTOR...AND THE PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT NORTH OF THE

    OUTFLOW...UNTIL THE 27/00-03Z TIME FRAME TUESDAY EVENING.

    HOWEVER...MODELS DO SUGGEST THAT INSOLATION ALONG AND NORTH OF THE

    RETREATING OUTFLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE TO STRONG

    DESTABILIZATION BENEATH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACROSS CENTRAL

    AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...WHICH PROBABLY WILL NOT STABILIZE MUCH

    DURING THE EVENING. COUPLED WITH ENLARGING...CLOCKWISE CURVED

    LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS NEAR AND BENEATH A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET

    /50-60+ KT AT 850 MB/...CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY TO BECOME CONDUCIVE

    TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF ORGANIZED SEVERE CONVECTIVE

    DEVELOPMENT...INCLUDING POTENTIALLY LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF

    PRODUCING STRONG TORNADOES. THIS THREAT MAY PERSIST DEEP INTO THE

    EVENING...PERHAPS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...SPREADING EAST

    NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.

    ..KERR.. 04/25/2011

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