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SmokeEater

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    Jan 12-13 Snow Event Obs and discussion

    in Philadelphia Region

    Posted

    Whatever happens here so be it but you have to be happy for our folks to the S (Balt/MD etc)...they get shafted year after year. Surprised no one has committed suicide in that subforum....or have they? Not sure...
    Ji seems genuinely enraged its not a KU, at least he was 1-2 days ago, lol. Forget that man, I'm just happy to see the ground white. Pattern is ripe going forward.

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    Jan 12-13 Snow Event Obs and discussion

    in Philadelphia Region

    Posted

    I'm heading down to Atlantic City for the weekend but will likely play around in Cape May County tomorrow morning. I think they will get a nice 6 inch snowfall out of this. Mt Holly on the fence as well. e0bnh9S.jpg&key=726072db8404b0751a2d73f311aee15c2d7f3bf2d06d7321eee038d42ea46325
    I'm going to do the same here also, probably take a ride down to the Cape Sunday morning, depending on how this sets up. I'll take even 1-3 in Atlantic Co and run with it being I completely missed the norlun trough down here because I was at work in North Jersey and not a flake fell.

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    Short-Term Severe/Flooding Discussion

    in Central/Western States

    Posted

    From BMX's AFD for Monday into Tuesday. Very, very bullish. Make a thread in here, or SE?


    The shortwave on Sunday night will serve as a primer wave for the next system developing to our west on Monday. A wide area of rich moisture will be lurking near the Gulf Coast, poised to move inland Monday afternoon and evening as wind fields respond to a shortwave entering the Southern Plains. Models are coming into agreement on a potentially dangerous setup Monday night into Tuesday morning across a large area which includes Alabama. The GFS and ECMWF are in good agreement with the evolution of the synoptic pattern, showing a low-amplitude shortwave taking on a negative tilt Monday night to our northwest. This pattern has the look of a classic severe weather outbreak and would support a rapidly deepening surface low tracking toward the Great Lakes with significant pressure falls extending southward into Alabama. With dewpoints rising into the upper 60s to perhaps 70F, instability appears more than sufficient for deep convection within a very highly sheared environment. Taken at face value, the ECMWF shows semi-discrete supercells capable of producing long-track, significant tornadoes across the northern half of our forecast area on Tuesday morning. The HWO will be updated to include a moderate confidence threat for tornadoes and damaging winds across the entire forecast area. With this threat still around 96 hours out and models subject to change, we will refrain from going all in on the potential for a tornado outbreak.

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    • Like 1

    Short-Term Severe/Flooding Discussion

    in Central/Western States

    Posted

    4 minutes ago, andyhb said:

    That big one was down for at least half an hour unless it cycled in between scans. Certainly not something I saw coming today, but favorable low level winds can lead to strange things when combined with 2500 J/kg MLCAPE. Noteworthy that the 500 mb flow was only around 15 kts in the area where this cell set up shop.

    You and a ton of chasers, lots of implosions on FB tonight.

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