Subtropics

40 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I liked where the euro was going wrt the whole pattern day 10.  Details at that range don’t matter. 

When was the last time a day 10 materialized. I wouldn't get excited yet from this. We don't even know if this depicted will be remotely close to what happens.

Does anybody else think the warming of our bay and ocean is having an impact on our winters and reducing our snow climo? 

2 years in a row <1'' in my backyard. I can't say we've had a night that was bone chilling cold either and our highs seem to often be in the low to mid 40s...

27 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Everyone shifted south in terms of climo. DCA is RIC. RIC is RDU. BWI is DCA. RDU is ATL. Adjust accordingly. 

Today's DCA being RIC of 30-50 years ago is a very good comparison. Given RVA is 100 miles south of DC, it's pretty sad in a half century.

1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said:

We have everything going against us into this winter. You'd think sooner or later the tables would turn and we'd have a shot for at least climo.

Climo has changed most likely. Expecting 15 inches of snow in DC from multiple storms isn't realistic IMO. We will always have a chance at a big one given our location to the coast, but boom or bust on storms is something we should get used to.

4 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Gross.

Head to Florida.

Coastal SE is the dream. NC Coast probably more realistic and I've looked into Wilmington, but I've heard nice things about Jax Florida.

Too cold and air is too dry. When can we get dews in the 70s again? Need to move south and join the SE subforum...

1 hour ago, frd said:

 

I have mentioned this before, along with various posts by bluewave. Anthony has an entire series of posts on this. And without a doubt this trend continues. The focus, well the enhanced area of higher heights near the East Coast between May and October during the most recent 10 year period.      

 

 

Very interesting. What would this mean? Not sure I understand implications of increasing heights or even what heights are.

15 minutes ago, Vice-Regent said:

The soup kitchen is gone at last but will it return? You don't need need rain for that.... this region is nutty but nothing like Colorado I suppose.

We are much more humid than colorado!

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

You are never going to see a forecast of 4-6" when the convection is scattered in nature. Come on. Read the headlines. There was a FFW put into effect. Read the forecast discussions. Read the WPC outlooks and meso discussions. There was a MPD  put out at 1245 PM today highlighting the FF risk for the DC area. The excessive rain potential was well advertised in advance, and localized amounts of 5" were highlighted.

When do you see 4-6'' AREA WIDE outside of a true landfalling tropical? Come on CAPE.

12 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

That N/S train was like a mini-Lee.  

Love me some N/S slow moving trains. We don't get those enough around here. Too much west to east garbage.

4 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

My weather station comes tomorrow...it pours today. Ironic.

Would have loved to have those personal stats recorded...

Just now, snowfan said:

Forecast seems a mess today. Started the day expecting off/on rain all day, then it seemed like everything was sliding to the NE and we'd dry out, now we've got flash flooding and a lot in the metro area getting pummeled.

Reverse bust. We were due.

Just now, BlizzardNole said:

It seems more and more common to get these crazy deluges in some areas with other areas nearby getting nothing.  It's a thing.

Both kids are at UMD and say it is just torrential rain with big thunder.  At least they don't have to walk to classes today.

Went to UMD. The mall can become a river. Can they get pics?

One of the best rain events in years oh my!

On 9/4/2020 at 9:07 AM, psuhoffman said:

You are actually in a better spot to try to luck into a warning level snow in a Nina without blocking. You can catch the west edge of some progressive late developing storms like are common in a Nina. DC is just too far west. Heck even with blocking they miss a lot but it at least gives them a chance. All the decent Nina snows in DC had blocking help.  March 18, January 2011, March 2009, February 2006, Jan 2000, March 99, and all the 96 storms featured at least some blocking leading up to them.  

 

 

It's not even that DC is too west. We are too south and that is our biggest downfall. Plenty of places west do just fine. Albany gets 2010 accums every year.

Over 2'' falling in under an hour - Arlington metro line

Absolutely CRUSHED in Alrington. Best storm I've seen in years. Signs blew down and trees sideway. 

Absolutely crushed in Arlington. Saw sign blow over and trees were bending with torrential rain falling sideways. Worst storm I've seen in years probably.

1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Given the pressure falls ahead of Laura and increased cloud cover, Saturday AM would be a good day to go fishing early

Why do you say that?

27 minutes ago, mappy said:

i really gotta stay out of main forum threads

I feel right at home in main tropical 

6 hours ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

Currently storming here again, so yet another sleepless night. It’s been almost a carbon copy of the July 6-7 event- 0.29” in the 11pm storm, and now an additional 1.11” (and counting) in the last hour with the second storm. I have no doubt this month will be double-digits just like the previous one (and probably my rainiest month ever).

The last 9 months or so have convinced me I need to move out of this state- I can’t stand the climo here anymore. (There’s other reasons for moving too, but I won’t get into that)

What's wrong with our climo? It's trending warmer if you hate the cold.

2 minutes ago, nj2va said:

McHenry...we’ve been spending most of the summer here since I’m able to work remotely.  This is the busiest I’ve seen Deep Creek...I’m sure with COVID, its caused people to look for vacations that are driveable vs flying somewhere.

Very cool. I've been remote for years prior to COVID. Just waiting to purchase to my beach house and live out of there... Decision on NC or MD/DE at this point. Deep Creek is fun but I always found it weird how it would be in the 70s in the summer and it freaked me out given I'm a warm and tropical weenie. Depends if end up moving to RVA I suppose.

Just now, JakkelWx said:

Getting ready for up to 5 inches of rain imby with gusts to 50 from isaias 

You're in a great spot. Maybe you get the center tracking right over you.

2 hours ago, nj2va said:

75 and partly cloudy, with a perfect breeze (gusting to 20).  20 degrees cooler than back home.

Are you in Arlington or did you go to McHenry?

On 8/1/2020 at 5:45 AM, CAPE said:

One more month of Summer. I am ready for Fall. Ofc it never actually feels like Fall around here until early October- sometimes.

Finished July with 6.30" of rain.

Yeah Fall here seems to come after October 10th lol