jconsor

Here's the paper on the 1846 hurricane, from the SCI-HUB site: https://sci-hub.reatk.com/10.1080/24694452.2020.1838257. I'm a big fan of Prof. Cary Mock (one of the authors) and his historical tropical cyclone reconstructions. Chenoweth also has some excellent papers along the same lines. For instance, "A New Compilation of North Atlantic Tropical Cyclones, 1851–98": https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/27/23/jcli-d-13-00771.1.xml Another late season hurricane which - while not as intense as Hazel and the 1846 hurricane - interacted favorably with an upstream upper level trough and maintained unusually strong intensity well inland was the "Gale of 1878": http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/research/roth/galeof78.htm This is an interesting paper along the same lines which deals with several East Coast hurricanes from the late 1700s to early-mid 1900s: https://scispace.com/pdf/paleotempestology-reconstructing-atlantic-tropical-cyclone-103stxo9p4.pdf

Thanks Larry. While the UKMET and ICON are further offshore, even those scenarios would likely lead to significant beach erosion/coastal flooding issues from the Carolinas to the mid-Atlantic and even possibly southern New England, due to 5+ days of strong onshore flow driven by the gradient between the 1030-1035 mb high and the low to the south. Despite "only" having a ~1000 mb low, ICON shows an ~850 mile fetch of near gale force (30 kt+) E/NE winds from all the way out around 63W to the Carolinas! Also of note, the UKMET (like a few other models including AIFS) shows ridging rebuilding over the NE US/far NW Atlantic between day 6 and 7), which would likely trap the system and possibly force it back westward beyond day 7. In terms of coastal flooding, it could be argued that a solution like the UKMET and ICON (or 6Z AIFS) with a low moving offshore but very slowly could be as bad or even slightly worse than a solution like the ECMWF or 12Z AIFS - which have a low much closer to the East Coast, but it doesn't strengthen notably and never really has much time to sit over the Gulf Stream.

One of the SC tornadoes (Barnwell) has been upgraded to an EF-2: https://x.com/Gio_wx/status/2109995279244026310

The tornado outbreak across the Carolinas was unusual not just for a TC-associated outbreak, but for the time of year: https://x.com/GMengel/status/2109798674465198505

Historical context - Isaias is easily the strongest Oct-Nov GOM hurricane since the beginning of the 20th Century when considering the 15 strongest El Ninos. Note that 2002 (Lili) was excluded from this list as it was a Modoki Nino. https://x.com/yconsor/status/2108558918406328651

Impressive microwave pass confirming the last recon message which showed a closed eyewall. https://x.com/yconsor/status/2108197204842446876

Side comment - I think we will see 1-3 named storms after this one with about a 50% chance of of another hurricane (likely in the subtropics). But yeah, it's pretty comical that this one seems to be defying many of our expectations.

Larry, I think that UKMET forecast showing Fay coming back this weekend is likely not a total outlier. Moreover, seems Fay may have been deactivated too fast; it's almost like she's taunting NHC - every time they try to deactivate her, convection increases and she refuses to die! https://x.com/yconsor/status/2105201133736415667

Looks like there were 3 distinct "hotspots": 1) Central coastal NJ 2) Western Suffolk, especially North Shore 3) Eastern MA

Duration and persistence of high water levels for NJ shore was one key aspect that made this storm unique/unusual: https://x.com/JoeMartWx/status/2104638298111045740

This system was clearly a black swan given the time of year and not being a tropical cyclone: https://x.com/yconsor/status/2105195828478361705

@vortex95 @jbenedet Would be interested to hear how would you counter Ryan and Tomer Burg's claim that this is merely a warm seclusion with no subtropical characteristics? Personally I think this is well on its way to being subtropical. You don't get a burst of convection like that near the center over 25C waters with thicknesses near 580 from upper-level/synoptic forcing alone like Tomer claims. https://x.com/burgwx/status/2103912607010750893 https://x.com/RyanWeather/status/2103917149110653089

WPC analyzed the low as 995 mb at 15z: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=sfc

All of the NJ coast up to Monmouth County (e.g. NWS Mount Holly's territory) is under a High Wind warning: https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=PHI&wwa=high wind warning

While GRAF is likely overdone, I do think we likely see 75+ mph wind gusts not too far offshore of NJ. https://x.com/WeatherProf/status/2103311148711854175