jconsor

Some thoughs on ENSO heading into next hurricane season: https://x.com/yconsor/status/1986046871349936133

Very impressively backloaded hurricane season this year. Here are some stats: https://x.com/yconsor/status/1983980828268097557

Severe damage in Montego Bay: https://x.com/rj_smith_3/status/1983506193994666304

The part of SE Cuba expected to be hit hardest (Santiago de Cuba) has very little precedent for Cat 3s, and none for Cat 4s: https://x.com/yconsor/status/1983236668933988715

Unlikely it gets closer than Andros Island in the Bahamas. Only way I could see Melissa getting really close to FL is if the day 7 trough/cutoff low misses it and it lingers somewhere from Cuba south into the NW Caribbean, *or* if it dives WSW and gets so far south (e.g. near Nicaragua/Honduras border) that by the time that trough picks it up it ends up near FL while turning NE. Both are highly unlikely in my view, but the past few KMA runs (not a reliable model) have shown something like one of these two scenarios.

The westward trend continues. Very few members going east of Cuba now, with a substantial increase in the number of members west of 80W by next Wed.

There are quite few analogs for the time of year and Melissa's expected path and intensity. https://x.com/yconsor/status/1980991500482994204

Notable left trend on FNV3 (Google DeepMind ensemble) from 12z run yesterday to today's 6z run - both in terms of the the members that show a sharp NE curve into Hispaniola being further west (Haiti vs. DR) and a lot more members turning west into the NW Caribbean

With 98L's increased organization in the past 12 hours, the hurricane models finally seem to be getting a better handle on its track and intensification. https://x.com/yconsor/status/1980253973345923256

AIFS seems off showing too much of a hole in the W Atl ridging N/NW of 98L. The other ML models don't support its scenario of 98L curving sharply NE toward Hispaniola. https://x.com/yconsor/status/1979887548240650357

Erin left a heck of a cold wake across the nw Atlantic, while the ENSO regions have cooled dramatically past two weeks. How will this influence Atlantic hurricane activity this month, and what are the two areas I am watching besides the E. Atl system? I go into depth on the large-scale factors for the next few weeks including Sep analogs, while looking at the "elephant in the room" that is being largely ignored IMHO because most tropical enthusiasts are focusing on the East Atlantic system. https://hurricanehacker.substack.com/p/the-times-they-are-changin

Please post the link for the vertical instability graphic. Thanks

ECMWF and Australian BOM models (amongst other seasonal models) suggesting a Central Atlantic NIno developing. This, along with portion of the very warm anomalies west of Europe gradually bleeding SW the Canary Islands and eastern tropical Atlantic, could help ramp up activity in the deep tropics, particularly west of 40W. https://x.com/yconsor/status/1930624747382964591

Hi Chuck, Interesting comparisons! I personally think using named storms to characterize active vs. inactive years is not particularly meaningful, given the human subjectivity and changes in NHC criteria over the years in terms of what is named. If we take the years with the most and least ACE since 1995, removing years that were El Ninos in the Apr-May timeframe (since they tend to be strongly correlated with -NAO), here are the most active years: 2020, 2005, 2004, 2003, 1999, 1996, 1995 The least active years: 2014, 2013, 2009, 2007, 2006 This year has some characteristics in common with the least active years (-MSLP anomaly from NW Territories of Canada to Greenland and +MSLP anomaly from the NW US to Hudson Bay and off the coast of the NE US). However, what is different from the inactive year composite, and closer to the active year composite, is the -MSLP from near Newfoundland to the central Atlantic near the Azores and then southward into the far east Atlantic and w. Africa. Additionally, the strong +NSLP from near the UK to Iceland is more similar to the active year composite. In short, a mixed bag, probably closer to inactive years but not a clear signal!

I was referring to highly unlikely possibility that so many of the hurricanes in both basins will become majors.