J.Spin

Fantastic!

LOL, indeed that was us! We even saw you waiting with your dog (thanks), although apparently none of us had time to recognize you unfortunately as we were working to navigate our bikes in the bridge area. Our wedding anniversary was Monday, but we decided to go out and celebrate Thursday evening to try out Tres Amigos for the first time. We parked at the church lot in the village so that we could get in a ride with dinner. All the restaurants along the bike path have such a sweet setup for going by bike, so we try to do that whenever we can. We’ve been missing Frida’s since it closed, but it’s nice to have another Mexican place in town. They have a cool ice cream stand there as well, which is genius of course being right along the bike path.

I was actually going to comment in my previous post that I saw my first yellow leaves of the season this morning while ascending I-89 along French Hill. They were on bushes on one of the ledges, so presumably in a stressful spot, but the process always starts at some point. Our old butternut tree out back will usually start dropping some yellow leaves at this time of year as well. I saw a couple of yellow leaves on the lawn this morning, but didn’t have time to look more into it. The actual butternuts have been dropping for a while already, and I’d expect to see some leaves falling any day now if the tree follows its usual schedule. I’m sure there are plenty of more subtle signs out there on our property, but that butternut tree starting to drop its leaves is typically the first harbinger of late summer that’s obvious at our house.

Seeing the fairly normal temperatures heading out to the end of next week means we’re probably not going to get back to any of those big July-like temperatures we had. Around August 10th is a notable cutoff date I found out about for this area from my wife. During her years as a summer lifeguard, she learned from the management (and reinforced with personal observation) that it was a critical tipping point for pool visitation. It’s not because of people’s schedules (it’s certainly not the point where school is starting up around here), but it’s likely a combination of available daylight for heating the water, lowering sun angle, and I’d bet most importantly, lowering humidity levels, that have people not needing/wanting to hit the water quite as much. It’s interesting to note that the date is about halfway between the solstice and the equinox, but it’s obviously specific for this latitude/location, so I’m not sure I’d read too much into that. That date is for the Champlain Valley though, so if anything the mountains around here would be a bit earlier to hit that point. I’m always partial to the (certainly arbitrary) August 1st cutoff for “high summer” heat around here because of the convenient calendar change, but there is a bit more to it than just that. I’ve never had an August day in this area with quite the heat and humidity of the big July days we get. That’s the way it’s generally going to be of course with the peak climate temperatures around here being in mid-July, but when the date has August in it, you already know it’s likely to have much more of a “late summer” feel than a midsummer feel. There is the old adage here about our one week of summer being around July 4th, but there’s also the one about our summer being “July”, with the other 11 months being “winter”. July definitely has its own feel. Last year seemed to be a bit of an exception with the lingering humidity farther into the summer, but that certainly wasn’t what we typically see this far north. Our real “dog days” are generally going to be in July vs. August. I guess that’s true for a lot of places, but hearing about temperatures around 90 F in SNE yesterday vs. the 70s F here was striking, it’s quite a different world down there.

July Precipitation: 5.15” 2019 Precipitation: 37.58” 2019 Water Year Precipitation: 56.05” July wound up about average here at our site with respect to precipitation, so we’re still running a bit ahead on the annual total after the wet spring. According to my data set, August and September are our driest warm-season months here before things ramp back up in October. The lawn is doing well, and we’re a couple of weeks past peak climate temperatures around here now, so hopefully we won’t have any big scorching temperatures for the lawn to deal with. There’s really nothing too hot in the forecast over the next week, and by then we’re getting to the point where it gets really hard to get that midsummer type heat around here, so hopefully those couple of days we had earlier in the month were the peak of our heat and humidity. August 1st marks the start of one of my favorite three-month stretches of weather around here. The humidity typically wanes pretty quickly, and we’ve got late summer warmth, early season cool shots, fall food and festivals, crisp nights, foliage, and usually first snows. It’s definitely a fun period for outdoor stuff around here.

Yeah, pretty sharp cutoff – it’s just one of those days that you pop down to Bolton for turns instead of Mansfield.

We were out in town and noticed some fairly dark clouds off to the west - it looks like something is building into the area:

Yeah, I’ve seen some of the local COCs pushing that theme lately in their marketing. We’re starting to see these around town:

It’s been mostly cloudy here in Waterbury with occasional periods of sun, and we’ve had a few spits of rain as well. Even though it’s only mid-morning, we’re already feeling pulses of drier air coming through when the wind picks up. Typically having the dew around 60 °F isn’t that big of a deal, but I’d say it’s going to be more noticeable after this recent spike.

Out here it still dropped into the 60s F last night, so it wasn’t too bad in the morning. It was pretty hot today though, getting up around 90 F or so, and we headed out for a float on the Winooski to cool down. We had some thunderstorms that came through the area later in the afternoon that gave us a pretty quick drop through the 80s F to get the evening cooling process going. We’ve been dropping through the 70s F all evening, but I’m not sure if we’ll be able to get back into the 60s F tonight; the forecast suggests we’ll fall just a bit short. Tomorrow looks notably cooler though, as well as tomorrow night, and then things drop even another notch on Monday with highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s F.

Even here in Burlington it’s been mostly cloudy this afternoon. I just biked downtown and back to run an errand and it was nice to be shaded by clouds. It’s certainly humid for around here though – I see the current dew point at the BTV NWS site us 72°F.

Agreed, it’s been really nice. I was glad to catch PF’s post on some of the month’s numbers for our temperatures and see that they’re about average, so the great weather we’ve had is essentially what we “should” be seeing. Aside from PF’s input, the “discussion” thread is sort of a mess to follow and get a sense for practical weather up here with DIT’s continuous torch trolling, his biased use of tweets and selected stations to fill some sort of agenda, and the fact that the temperatures being thrown out are the notably hotter SNE numbers to begin with.

We’ve had a couple of days with what seemed like orographic clouds up here over the past two or three weeks, but certainly not many. I actually like how those clouds come in, help keep the temperatures comfortable, and add variety to the weather. It’s not as if they always mean rain, sometimes they just build, give you a half hour of cooler shade, then you get a break of blue for a while, and the cycle repeats. In some cases you’ll get a passing shower as well, but it’s part of what keeps mountain weather interesting.

LOL, brutal, just brutal. I’m guessing you tried that novel approach that PF mentioned of just opening and closing various windows and doors to regulate the temperature of the house? I tried it last night and it seemed like it worked.

Yeah, been doing the same thing, closed some of the doors and windows, leaving others open to tweak the temperature as needed. It’s hard to complain when you’re able regulate evening house temperatures this way as we approach the hottest part of the year.

I was already worried about it when I was running through my data, but at some point it’s just sort of a self-fulfilling prophecy, like testing if a snowy Dec, Jan, or Feb correlates with a snowy overall season. If a month is a large enough component of the season’s snowfall, it’s just naturally going to contribute to an overall snowy season. Those Novembers that went into the “above median” calculation from my data were up there in roughly the 20-40” range for snowfall. Unless a site’s snowfall average is well into the hundreds of inches per season, those kinds of numbers are obviously going to have a positive correlation with season snowfall.

To check for trends in my data, I thought about putting together a scatter plot and analyzing its correlation, but running the median seems like an efficient approach. My data set is even smaller (13 seasons), but here’s what I’ve got: Median October snowfall: 1.0” Median November snowfall: 13.6” Mean season snowfall: 155.9” Mean season snowfall for Octobers above median: 150.0 ± 47.6” Mean season snowfall for Octobers below median: 155.0 ± 26.8” Mean season snowfall for Novembers above median: 171.8 ± 24.9” Mean season snowfall for Novembers below median: 135.0 ± 41.6”” Any seasonal difference with respect to October snowfall is probably negligible (especially when looking at that difference with respect to the S.D. values). There’s quite a trend when it comes to November snowfall though. With respect to the snowier November values, the snowfall mean is 1.5 S.D. above the less snowy November values. The S.D. values still overlap if you consider both data sets, although at this point any data set with the highly aberrant 2015-2016 season in it has its deviation bumped substantially. With the data available though, the trend is certainly toward Novembers with good snowfall associating with seasons that have good snowfall.

I was working on logging in and bookmarking things for the new page and came across this comment when I browsed through some of the posts. It’s not as if we didn’t have any mixed precipitation events this past season, but when the main gist of our conversation about rating the winter in the NNE thread was essentially “What kind of A do we give it?”, that should put the kibosh on our nervousness for how the winter is going to go. That old adage probably has some sort of merit, but in some respects it’s like everyone’s fear about how getting October snow forebodes a weak snow season. We get accumulating snow in most seasons (including this past one, which had four accumulating storms and the highest October snow total in my records), and they can’t all be bad. That adage may be focused on temperatures, but I’d sure argue that good November snowfall doesn’t seem correlated with a bad overall winter season. November 2018 was excellent with respect to snowfall, as were November 2007 and November 2008, and those were all top 5 snowfall seasons in my records. If anything, the data here would likely support a positive correlation with between November and seasonal snowfall.

June Precipitation: 5.45” 2019 Precipitation: 32.43" 2019 Water Year Precipitation: 50.90” June averages just over seven inches of precipitation and is the wettest month at our site according to my data records. While precipitation was more than an inch and a half below average this June, that still means plenty of liquid, so there was no obvious deficiency and the lawn and plants seem to be doing well. Even without an especially wet June, 2019 calendar and water year precipitation are still running several inches ahead of average due to a surplus of moisture in the winter and spring. November and May were substantial contributors in that regard with more than eight inches of precipitation each.

My phone alerted me of a Severe Thunderstorm Warning, presumably due to what’s off to our west:

Earlier this year I had an inquiry on the ski areas page of our website that prompted me to update the page, so I’ve done that now that we’re in the off season and I’ve had a bit of time. Like my usual north to south list of the major ski areas that I use for storm reports, I created a similar north to south list of the state’s smaller areas that are currently in operation, with annual snowfall numbers that I could scrounge up/estimate. Naturally, not all these ski areas have expansive websites like the major resorts, but I was able to get reasonably current/relevant links for all of them. I was aware of many of these ski areas, but there were still some that I didn’t know were in operation. I know there are a number of Vermonters and Vermont ski enthusiasts here, so I figured I’d pass the list along. I’ll cross post it in the ski thread as well for folks that don’t necessarily visit the NNE thread. Hard’ack (82″) Pete’s Tow (99″) Lyndon Outing Club (103″) Chapman Hill (79″) Cochran’s (88”) Cosmic Hill (104″) Northeast Slopes (91″) Pine Mountain (65″) Harrington Hill (87″) Twin Farms (82″) Suicide Six (80″) Ski Quechee (90″) Bear Creek (150″) Ascutney Outdoors (175″) Timber Ridge (145″) Bellows Falls (56″) Hermitage (150″) Living Memorial (56″)

I just ran across a piece from REI that came out just after your trip - it discusses the RASTA model for BC skiing access, and it was neat to hear how people in other states in the Northeast are starting to follow their lead. It also puts some numbers to the positive economic benefits (although $230,000 from 171 users on one day must somehow incorporate a lot of ancillary benefits). The article notes that they’re in the process of getting approval to expand the Brandon Gap terrain into Chittenden Brook Bowl. I’m not sure exactly where the terrain is, but Chittenden Brook itself appears to be across Route 73 on the opposite side of the gap. https://www.rei.com/blog/snowsports/the-new-blueprint-for-backcountry-skiing-in-the-northeast

That’s impressive considering we’re just about at the solstice, and that’s not even a high elevation spot. You can even see how the grasses in the area are just waking up as the snow melts back.

That’s absolutely my thinking. This past season was certainly strong on total snowfall, but even in my archive of only 13 seasons, it still comes in third. The stats speak to it being a notch down from the very top as well – it’s right at 1 S.D. above the mean, putting it in the top 15-20% of seasons, but certainly not top 5-10%. A strong December or February would likely have pushed it into that upper echelon. So it’s probably in that A/A- range with respect to snowfall, but I’d say it’s got to get that bump to a straight A because it now leads my stats in so many snow-related categories, and in some cases by a large margin: Snow-Depth Days (SDD) blew every other season out of the water and was a very impressive 1.75 S.D. above the mean. That puts it in the top 4-5% of seasons for that parameter. The start of the continuous winter snowpack on November 10th was again tops in the database and 1.67 S.D. ahead of the mean. That puts the season in the top 4-5% of seasons for that parameter as well. The duration of the snowpack at 163 days was tops in the data set and 1.4 S.D. above the mean, putting it in the top 10% of seasons. The 64 accumulating winter storms we had here this past season easily puts it easily in first place. That’s 1.72 S.D. above the mean and means it’s in the top 4-5% of seasons. I recorded 114 days with a trace or more of snowfall this season. I guess that shouldn’t be too surprising with the high number of storms we had, but I felt like we’ve had “snow-globier” winters, so it wasn’t immediately obvious to me. In any case, this season was well in first place for that parameter, 1.51 S.D. above the mean and in the top 10% of winters. So despite being third place with respect to overall snowfall, this season topped the stats in a number of related categories, and it’s hard to not give it the bump to the straight A. I agree, especially if snowfall, the holiday season, and occurrence of mixed precipitation systems are factored in, that this season shouldn’t get to the A+ level. I’m guessing A+ would be something like 2000-2001? I know it was pretty solid from living it and skiing it and seeing the Mansfield snowpack data for the season (green trace in the plot below), even if I wasn’t tracking the winter weather here or paying nearly as close attention to it as I do now. I’m assuming 1968-1969 would also qualify? I wasn’t alive then, but I’ve heard great things and the Mansfield depth plot (orange trace in the plot below) sort of speaks for itself. At least at our site, 2007-2008 would probably get some consideration for the A+ category because it tops all seasons for snowfall and broke the 200” barrier here. Its Mansfield snowpack data (red trace in the plot below) certainly doesn’t crush the others, but, I seem to recall it being very consistent with the snowfall and we were right in the storm track, even if we did get some mixed events. That consistency I remember, as well as a strong December (almost 70” of snow here) and holiday season sort of give it a bit of consideration for me.