J.Spin

Based on the quality of yesterday’s skiing, I was leaning heavily toward heading out for another tour today. The backcountry conditions around Bolton are already quite good, and they were reporting another 2 to 4 inches of new snow this morning, so that was a nice bonus. Temperatures were expected to be about the same as yesterday, which meant single digits F. My older son was able to join me today, so it was great to have company, and we were able to get some actions shots in the powder. We did a tour somewhat similar to what I did yesterday, but we lengthened it out a bit more. Instead of heading up to Heavenly Highway and working our way down to North Slope, we went all the way up to Moose Glen and then wrapped around on a descent toward the glades around Snow Hole, which was roughly a four-mile tour. I chose that route to get us some relatively high altitude turns after observing the notable improvements in the overall snowpack above 2,500’ yesterday. The number of visitors at the resort seemed a bit less today – there was no sign posed about the Village lots being full, and we easily grabbed a parking spot in the upper lot by the entry to the Backcountry Network. With cold temperatures preserving the snow, conditions were similar to yesterday with 1 to 2 feet of powder available wherever wind hadn’t scoured it to lower depths. Touring some of the higher elevation trails allowed us to see the various areas that had been hit by wind, and you just had to be cognizant of where winds had affected the snowpack to pick the lines with the best undisturbed powder. The middle elevations were much less disturbed by the wind, and you could pick just about line and get some great powder turns. The models suggest we might have another long-duration system like this past one starting up tomorrow night and running right through the week, and I see that Winter Weather Advisories are already up for the Northern Greens in anticipation of some of that snowfall.

Yeah, it’s been great seeing that next event in the modeling – it’s sort of the follow up to this current one with a very similar broad cyclonic flow from a low in Quebec driving moisture into the spine. The BTV NWS highlights it in their discussion below. That next potential event has actually had more of a “continuous” look on the GFS modeling vs. the ups and downs of this current one, but the overall liquid equivalent seems similar based on your map. And the look has also been pretty consistent on the GFS for quite a while. It was either Dr. Postel or Dr. Nabb that talked about it a few days back on TWC during one of their medium range overviews. It’s apparently Winter Storm Blair that disrupts the flow and ends this current event, and then it starts up again. It’s a pretty nice way to run a “cold and dry” period though, with probably 3 to 4 inches of liquid equivalent going into the mountain snowpack as snow if the next event is similar to what the modeling suggests. This is far better than being under January subzero arctic cold with no moisture. Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 906 AM EST Sun Jan 5 2025 .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 328 AM EST Sunday...A shortwave passes through Monday night, bringing a return of the snow showers. The airmass behind it is very moist, with saturation up to around 10,000 feet and a wide DGZ that takes up most of that layer. It has a bit of a maritime source from the North Atlantic, with moisture that has been wrapped into the broad cyclonic flow centered over Quebec. Persistent northwest flow through mid-week will cause almost continuous mountain snow showers and periods of snow showers in the some of the valleys. Flow looks to be more blocked during this period than it was this week, and this should be able to bring more of the snow showers down the western slopes a bit, instead of primarily being toward the top of the mountains and on the immediate eastern sides.

Wow, so much great Northern Greens snowfall and skiing discussion in here today – definitely things pertinent to the NNE thread. People often note how good the Northern Greens are about recovering to quality ski conditions after warm-ups, and they are definitely putting on a display right now. When the focus of the conversation is nit-picking about whether the powder is 1½ or 2½ feet deep, I guess conditions have “recovered” somewhat. To bwt’s comment about sitting on the lifts: yeah, touring was the call today for me, I never even considered the lifts. A large part was access to untracked snow of course, but the bigger part was the temperatures. I don’t “love” the cold, but I also don’t mind it when I can get out there and be perfectly comfortable and not even thinking about it. A big part of that is just knowing yourself – everyone’s thermoregulation is different, but I learned many years ago that I’m just not comfortable sitting on the lift in temperatures in the single digits F for very long. Add in any wind and it only makes it worse. But touring in those temperatures, especially in the trees with no wind – I’ll be comfortable all day. I also find that having high-quality gear that does what it’s supposed to is really helpful. I’m always fine paying a bit extra for top-name winter gear when I know that they’ve thought of and tested all those perks that make life in the cold that much easier – even if I don’t know that I need them at the time. Some features I don’t even discover until years after I’ve owned a piece of gear, and I run into a certain situation out in the field that I’d never encountered. Those are the times when I really appreciate it. And all the discussion from the Jay Peak area – that’s so funny because I actually considered heading up there for a ski tour today, and it sounds like lots of people had the same idea. The area really has been racking up the inches. Seeing that Bolton had picked up another 4-6” overnight tipped the scales for me though (and of course the difference of a 10-minute drive vs. an hour drive). Regarding border’s comment about snow depth at Bolton vs. Jay – that was absolutely one of the reasons I was considering heading up there. Everything I’m seeing suggests that the accumulations have been very solid up by Jay Peak. And I’m not surprised; barring any huge deviations due to thaws, Jay’s 155” of snowfall on the season vs. Bolton’s 111” of snowfall on the season, equates to roughly an extra 12-15” of settled snowpack depth, and that’s quite significant at this point in the season when the snowpack is only a few feet deep. Based on what I found out there today, once you’re above 2,500’ I think the difference is lessened, because I think Bolton took a bigger hit down low with the recent warmth. As I mentioned in my report, once you got up around 2,700’-2,800’ on the Bolton Backcountry Network, the powder was up around 24” and the total snowpack had to be pushing 40”. That’s pretty solid, and that’s on the windward side of the spine, so I wonder what the leeward side of the area is like after those winds from the earlier part of the storm. And LOL on skier’s and their snow measurements – the examples of vastly different estimates from the same general area were great. With all the different textures and densities of powder, it can be really hard to just wing it in terms of estimating depth, so I take reports of snow depths more seriously from folks that carry around one of these:

Our current storm cycle started up back on Wednesday, with low pressure deepening as it passed over southeast New England and up into Maine. It then headed on up into eastern Quebec, stalled there for a bit, and finally moved to northwest to James Bay, where it’s expected to sit until about Monday. While this isn’t a stacked low-pressure system sitting in the Canadian Maritimes feeding continuous 1+”/hr. snows into the Northern Greens, the broad cyclonic flow supported by the various positions of the low pressure has kept the area in a nice moist westerly/northwesterly flow that’s been feeding snow into the mountains. So, this isn’t a typical 24-, 48-, or 72-hour type of storm cycle; it’s a much more drawn-out sort of “cycle”. I wasn’t sure how the positions of this low would actually play out with respect to snowfall, but since well before the start of the storm the National Weather Service Office in Burlington has been on it – they felt that the potential was there for solid amounts of snow over the protracted period. And they certainly weren’t wrong. It’s been a little tough to total up the mountain accumulations for the full event because it’s already been going on for four days, and the resorts typically only report up to 48-hour accumulations, but it looks like anywhere from roughly 1.5 to 3 feet have fallen in the Northern Greens from the system as of today. Bolton Valley was reporting 4 to 6 inches of new snow overnight on top of their previous accumulations from the system. I’d already been finding snow accumulations of 9 to 10 inches when I was out touring at Bolton on Thursday, so between whatever fell Thursday night into Friday, plus these additional Friday night accumulations, there seemed to be some good powder potential out there. Temperature forecasts for the mountains were in the single digits F today, so touring seemed to be the best option. My wife was initially going to join me for a ski tour, but after thinking about the temperatures for a bit, she ultimately decided to work out at home instead. I headed up to the mountain a bit after noontime, and people certainly didn’t seem to care about the temperatures – the signs were up for parking at Timberline because the upper lots were full. Being after noon, I knew I’d be able to get a spot from someone who was leaving for the day, so I headed up to the main base. I still ended up getting a spot in the lowest tennis court lot though, and that changed up my touring plans a bit. I had initially planned to ascend at the start of the Wilderness Uphill Route and then make my way toward Gardiner’s Lane, but since I was parked right down by the Pond Loop area with easy access to the Bryant Trail, I ascended there instead. I had just planned to loop around Bryant Cabin and then head out to start my descent on North Slope, but the temperatures felt great while touring, so I continued on up to Heavenly Highway, topped out around 2,800’, and started my descent via the “Not a Trail” glade. From there I continued down North Slope and then made a second ascent to ski some of the glades in the Snow Hole area. It was clear that powder depths had increased at the resort since I was last there on Thursday. Winds have died down substantially now, so measuring the snow is much easier, and right at the car at ~2,000’ I was getting 8-12” depths for the surface snow above the base. By 2,500’ the typical depths were in the 12-16” range, and around 2,800’ I’d say they were 12-18”. I’d still say that’s somewhat conservative though, because I was often finding powder depths of 24” up around 2,700’-2,800’. Getting up above 2,500’ makes a real difference in the snow though, because those areas must have done really well during our previous warmup – the interface between the surface snow and the base has mostly disappeared by the point (making it harder to measure just the new snow), and the skiing is really good. Dropping into my initial descent, I could tell that the overall snowpack was really deep. Below that top 24” of powder there was substantial base, and I’d say the snowpack there has to be 40 inches. The snowpack at the Mt. Mansfield Stake was at 39” as of a couple of days ago, and it hasn’t been updated since then, but based on what I found out there today a few miles to the south, it’s got to be over 40 inches by now. Anyway, I’d recommend doing most of your touring up in that 2,500’ to 3,500’ elevation range if you can – it’s just a notable improvement in the overall snowpack below 2,500’. It’s still nice skiing down there, but it’s sort of mid-fat powder conditions below 2,500’, and full-fat conditions above 2,500’. I toured on mid-fats today, but I was wishing I had fat skis in that deep snowpack above 2,500’. The powder is of medium weight, so there’s plenty of liquid equivalent in there to really keep you off the base. As of this evening we’re approaching an inch of liquid equivalent from this system at our site in the valley, so you know the mountains have had at least an inch of two of liquid equivalent from this system so far, and it definitely felt like it based on what I experienced above 2,500’ today. With respect to the ongoing storm, there was generally light but consistent snow falling when I was out on the mountain today. The flakes were small, in the 1 to 2 mm range, so it was hard to gauge snowfall rates, but I had to clean a decent layer off my car when I got back to it after just an hour or two of touring. Toward the end of my tour, the flake size was picking up noticeably to roughly 2 to 8 mm flakes. Down here at the house, we’ve had light snow all day, but it’s picked up more this evening with larger flakes, especially when strong echoes come through as more pronounced shortwaves embedded in the overall cyclonic flow move through the area. Based on what we’ve been seeing here at the house this evening, there should be at least another few inches out there by tomorrow morning for the mountains.

LOL, great question – I’m just finishing up my detailed report and I’ll post it soon with some photos. At this point I can say that I definitely want to head back out touring tomorrow after what I experienced today!

Since we just finished up with December, I figured I’d update the season snowfall progress plot for our site. Since that late November/early December burst pushed us well above average snowfall pace, the season snowfall progression has generally been able to maintain itself at slightly above average. As the plot shows, there were those snowfall lulls in mid-December and late December that have kept things generally in check. With respect to December snowfall, it was decent overall. With 45.1 inches of total snowfall, it was a bit above average. To speak to how Decembers have been recently, it was the first above average snowfall December we’ve had in 7 years, and you have to go back 12 years to find a December with higher snowfall (December 2012 with 49.5 inches). Between Great Lakes moisture, northwest upslope flow, bread and butter clippers, the occasional coastal system, etc., strong Decembers around here are in the 50, 60, or even 70-inch range for snowfall when Mothern Nature is firing on all cylinders, but we just haven’t had a full month of that in quite a while. The first 10 days of this month was a bit of a callback taste of what Mother Nature can do though – we picked up more than 30 inches of snow in those 10 days, with no major storms, just a bread-and-butter pattern of clippers and the usual stuff that the Northern Greens do. Keep that up for 30 days and of course you’d get a really solid month. December 2024 snow numbers and storm data: Snowfall: 45.1” Total Liquid equivalent: 4.32” Number of storms: 14 Days with snowfall: 25 Storm List: For the local ski resorts in the Northern Greens, I’m seeing the following seasonal snowfall numbers as of today, from north to south: Jay Peak: 151” Smuggler’s Notch: 113” Stowe: 114” Bolton Valley: 105” Based on my numbers, Bolton Valley appears to be just a few inches ahead of average pace, and Smugg’s and Stowe are probably in roughly the same place. Jay Peak is the odd one out at the moment, running at about 133% of average snowfall, and a good chunk of the extra snow seemed to come from that lake-effect period earlier in December, and now probably a bit from our most recent/ongoing storm (28 inches in the past 48 hours). This is well down from when they were running around 200% of average pace earlier in December though. On a related note, my younger son is off skiing at Sunday River for a couple of days, so we checked on their snowfall to date at their website. I seriously did a double take when I saw the number: 36 inches. 36 inches? I’d recorded 36 inches of snowfall here at our house by the first third of December. Now of course they’re probably using a 24-hour collection interval and will preserve it much better than we will down here in the valley, but it still seems crazy compared to what the local resorts around here have picked up so far this season. Sugarloaf doesn’t list their season snowfall to date in their snow report as far as I can tell, but presumably they’re slightly higher. I assume the Maine resorts suffer from the same sort of thing that much of SNE snowfall does with respect to dependence on coastal systems, but it’s still hard to understand how mountains that far north don’t get more snow.

Our anticipated long-duration storm system began in the area yesterday with some light snow accumulations for the mountains and valleys, but snowfall really picked up overnight, so I decided to head up to Bolton today for some turns. As of this morning, Bolton Valley was reporting 7 inches of new snow from the storm, and snowfall has continued today. Their reported storm total seemed like a good amount for some ski touring, so that was my plan if I was heading up to the mountain alone. My younger son didn’t work until the afternoon, so he was planning to head up for a morning lift-served session with a friend, and my wife had the day off due to school closures from the storm and she was thinking of going as well. Those plans fell through though – the winds were so strong that the Vista Quad Chair was on wind hold before it ever opened, and even the Mid Mountain Chair quickly went on wind hold in the morning. The only chairlift running by mid-morning was the Snowflake Chair, and with most of the Snowflake terrain not open, we generally felt that it wasn’t worth heading up for such minimal terrain. That brought me back to my original plan of ski touring on Wilderness. Down at our place in the valley we’d picked up 4 to 5 inches of snow from the storm at that point, but the contrast in accumulations was stark as I dropped down into Bolton Flats on my way to the mountain – the snow accumulation there looked like an inch at most. Accumulations were the same at the base of the Bolton Valley Access Road at 340’, and I had to get above 1,000’ before I really started seeing accumulations of at least a few inches. Up in the Village parking areas, it was impossible to find a sheltered spot to get a reliable measurement of accumulations at 2,000’, so I had to wait until I got into the relative shelter of the Wilderness Uphill Route to really check the snow depth. Once one the ascent though, I checked the snow depth along the sheltered edge of Wilderness numerous times, and the measurements were all between 8 and 9 inches, with one measurement of 7 inches. At 2,500’ I was measuring 9 to 10 inches of accumulation, and I never got any reliable measurements higher than that, even up above 3,000’. I stress “reliable” because the winds had wreaked havoc on the snow in many areas. Some spots were scoured down to the old base, and some places had 5-foot drifts. Up at the Wilderness Summit at 3,150’ the winds were absolutely howling – they had to be in the 50 to 60 MPH range at times. Finding a sheltered spot to pack up my skins was a huge challenge. Thankfully, temperatures were in the 20s F, so there wasn’t frigid cold to go with those winds. Photographs of gentled-settled powder snow were difficult to come by today, but if you wanted to get images of drifts… they were everywhere. Here’s the snow accumulations profile I saw as of midday in the Bolton Valley area for this ongoing storm: 340’: 0.5-1” 500’: 1-2” 1,000’: 3-4” 1,200’: 3-4” 1,500’: 4-5” 2,000’: 8-9” 2,500’: 9-10” 3,000’: 9-10” The skiing turned out to be excellent though. As long as you avoid any wind-scoured areas, there’s been a really decent resurfacing from this storm so far. We’ve picked up ¾” if liquid equivalent from the storm at our site down in the valley, and the mountains should have had at least that much, so an inch of new liquid equivalent up there seems very reasonable based on what I experienced today. The new snow our there certainly wasn’t fluff; with all the wind, it was actually feeling like typical 10% H2O synoptic snow, and out of the wind, the new snow was substantial enough to even resurface black diamond pitches. So, while it wasn’t sublime champagne powder, it was decent medium-weight powder, and it was much more what the slopes needed with respect to resurfacing. We didn’t get too much accumulation (about an additional half inch) during the day today here at our site along the spine because as forecast, the Froude Numbers went well above 1.0, but they may have come back down a bit because we’re getting some decent accumulation this evening with these more recent bands of moisture pushing through.

I just received a text alert that the Winter Storm Watches here in Vermont had been converted – Winter Storm Warnings along the spine of the Northern Greens, and Winter Weather Advisories in the surrounding areas. The updated Event Total Snowfall map from the BTV NWS is similar to the previous version, with areas of 12”-18” along the spine and a few pockets of 18”-24”. In the mountain point forecasts I’m generally seeing 1 to 2 feet of snowfall in the forecast at elevation as was mentioned earlier, and we should get their latest thoughts when they put out their next AFD.

I see they expanded the Winter Storm Watches as they had considered – they’ve added them here in the Northern Greens and down into the Central Greens. The latest BTV NWS maps are below:

I hadn’t realized that temperatures would already be coming down in the mountains this morning with that last batch of precipitation since it was coming in from the southwest, but I guess it was still supplying cooler air: Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 633 AM EST Mon Dec 30 2024 .SYNOPSIS... …gusty southwest winds will help to slowly push cooler air into the area with rain changing to snow showers over the Adirondacks by tonight. I looked into the discussion because I was seeing snow falling today on the mountain webcams, and the point forecasts indicate that temperatures at elevation don’t really move much above freezing from here on out. The BTV NWS is certainly discussing that snow potential for the coming days – it doesn’t look outrageously potent in the modeling to me, but it seems like the duration is an important aspect; most of the models seem to be in the range of 1 to 2 inches of liquid equivalent for the Northern Greens before things wind down late on Sunday: .SYNOPSIS... Another storm system will impact our region on Wednesday into Thursday with the potential for a long duration accumulating snowfall event for the mountains of Vermont and northern New York. Much cooler temperatures develop on brisk westerly winds for Thursday into Friday. .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 356 AM EST Monday...The center of a deepening low passes over southeast New England and into Maine on New Year`s Day and into the night, taking an ideal storm track for widespread snowfall. The only problem, despite being January, there will be no antecedent cold air, so the precipitation will only start as elevation dependent snowfall. .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 356 AM EST Monday...The low that passes through on New Year`s lingers over Quebec for a few days and causes persistent cyclonic flow into the weekend. Saturated low and mid levels of the atmosphere past 10,000 feet will lead to almost continuous upslope snowfall in the mountains.

As we get closer, the BTV NWS is starting to cover it more in their AFDs, but with that cyclonic flow and potential assistance from lake moisture (both mentioned in the bolded text) it does have the look of snow from Wednesday right through Sunday. Most of the modeling shows it to varying degrees. It’s not really a clipper-style bread and butter pattern for the Northern Greens, but that cyclonic flow is often part of it as well. Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 131 PM EST Sun Dec 29 2024 LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 355 AM EST Sunday...As additional s/w energy rotates acrs the Mid Atlantic States on Weds, secondary coastal develops occurs over southern New England. This area of low pres is progged to deepen with both 850/700h circulations becoming closed off as the system lifts toward Maine. This cyclonic circulation wl help to advect cooler 925mb to 850mb temps acrs our cwa on favorable upslope flow on Weds into Thurs. As both 925mb and 850mb temps fall below 0C by 00z Thurs, expect snow levels to drop to the valley floors. Still some uncertainty on how quickly this system becomes closed off and if the circulation slows down per the CMC/ECMWF or remains progressive and quickly lifts away from our cwa per the GFS. For now have continued with likely/cat pops for most of the area on Weds, but confine the highest likely pops to the northern Dacks/western Slopes for Weds night into Thurs, before tapering off to chc by Thurs night. Several inches of snow is likely for the mountains during this time frame with increasing snow ratio. Deep cyclonic flow prevails into next weekend with favorable upslope flow, continued llvl caa, and some lake moisture interaction, helping to keep the threat for scattered mountain snow showers going. Progged 850mb temps drop btwn -14C and -18C by Saturday, supporting highs in the mid teens to mid 20s with lows holding in the 10 to 20 degree range due to clouds/winds.

With warming temperatures in the forecast today, I figured the slopes would be softening up, so it felt like a good day for some lift-served skiing. Temperatures were still well below freezing this morning though, so I was unsure how quickly surfaces would soften, and I decided to sharpen the edges on my mid-fat Telemark skis. Last time I had need of edges, I found them sorely lacking, so it felt like it was time. I can’t recall the last time I sharpened the edges of those skis, but it has to have been at least a couple of years. Out on the slopes I found an interesting mix of conditions. We’ve had some mountain temperature inversions in place recently, so I actually found some of the softest conditions up high near the summits, while groomed slopes with manmade snow were notably firmer on the lower mountain. While there was nothing that was outrageously icy, it was nice to have the extra sharpness to my edges on the manmade snow. One exciting thing I saw in the Bolton Valley Snow Report this morning was that resort had finally opened up the Cobrass area, which included Cobrass and nearby trails. Today being my first chance to check out the conditions in that area, I headed right down Cobrass for my first run. Being up near the summit where the warmer temperatures of the inversion had been around for a bit, I found the snow on Cobrass to already be nicely softened. The skier’s right of the steep upper section had excellent soft snow that had been built up by skier traffic. It was so good that I went right back to it on my next run. I also hit Alta Vista off the Vista Summit, and it was nice, but it didn’t offer up quite as much soft snow as Cobrass. We’re moving out of the quiet period of weather that we’ve had over the past several days in a more active regime. The system moving into the area over the next couple of days doesn’t look like it will provide any snow, but the one behind it should give the local mountains their next shot at substantial accumulation, with the potential for upslope snow on the back side.

I’ve been telling my wife about the fantastic powder conditions I’ve been finding on my outings up at Bolton Valley, so today she joined me for a ski tour. I returned to Timberline and brought her on the same tour that I did yesterday, and the powder continued to be just as fantastic as it’s been the past several days. She was definitely impressed with the quality of the powder, and we talked a lot about exactly what was making it come together for such perfection and effortless turns. It came down to the fact that the gradient in it is just ideal; it’s right-side-up with no intervening hollow or dense layers. The top also has a subtle layer of extremely delicate surface hoar, or surface hoar-like crystals, and that really finishes off the uppermost layer of the powder with extremely dry snow to set the starting point of the density gradient. Anyway, the turns were silky smooth, and the skier traffic was very light, so there are still plenty of fresh lines out there for folks who want to check out some really primo powder. Tomorrow might be the last day of this current weather regime though, since some warmer temperatures are coming. Our next potential snowstorm could be coming in just a few days though; the models suggest there could be something around the New Year’s holiday.

High-quality powder snow is generally ephemeral; it’s best skied when it’s fresh because it loses loft as it settles, and the bubby “champagne” effect is reduced. I say “generally” because there are times when powder can improve over time. We’re in one of those weather regimes now, and every time I head out, the areas of untouched snow just seem to ski better and better. The humidity is low, and each night we’re dropping into the single digits above or below zero F; it’s a recipe for great powder preservation. I already noted the improvement in the snow between my ski sessions on Monday and Tuesday, and here we are on Thursday and the powder just continues to impress. I had some time to get out for a tour this afternoon, and I managed to catch some sunset skiing on Timberline. Since I’d had such good snow on Tuesday, I actually followed that same route today and stuck to Spell Binder. The top layer of the powder is just feathers, and it gradually gets denser the deeper you go into the snowpack, which is just the way you want if for skiing. I’m not sure if the skiing could be any more effortless than what I’d experience on Tuesday, but perhaps it was today. Touring skier traffic hasn’t been too busy at Timberline in the past few days, but as always, another storm would be welcomed. It’s certainly not that the quality of the powder needs a reset, but we could use a reset of the ski tracks on the trails. Untracked lines are still there, but they won’t hold out forever, and eventually new snow will be needed.

As of their early morning snow report, Bolton Valley had received 8 inches of accumulation from the clipper that began affecting the area yesterday evening, so I headed up for some morning turns with my wife and our younger son. We’re not fully into the holiday week yet, so visitation at the resort was still fairly modest – around the time of the opening of the early lifts, folks were parking in the second and third tiers of the main Village parking areas. I’d say we found about 8 inches of new snow at most elevations, so that’s right on track with the snow report. The powder was dry, midweight snow – my snow analyses for the storm up to that point came in at 7 to 8 % H2O. Total liquid equivalent from the system stands at 0.42 inches at our site in the valley, so that’s very much in line with the forecasts, and the mountain was probably somewhere in the range of a ½ inch of liquid equivalent. While not enough for a massive resurfacing, it did a decent job of resetting the surfaces atop subsurfaces that are already of decent quality from the past couple of systems. After a couple days of below average temperatures, we’ve warmed back up into the 20s F now, and with light snow falling and no wind, the weather was fantastic out on the slopes today. We started off with a run on the Vista Quad, and Alta Vista had nice powder and chowder available - it was enough to be bottomless in untouched areas on moderate slope angles. Our timing was perfect for catching the opening of the Wilderness Lift, so we did a couple runs there, then finished off with more runs off Vista and Snowflake. The resort even hit Spillway hard with snowmaking and it’s good to go – my wife and I didn’t ski it, but my son and his friend did and said it was fine for manmade snow. Conditions on the slopes are certainly good, but the natural snow trails could still use more cover, and the resort will need that to expand terrain into areas where they aren’t making snow. They haven’t yet opened Timberline, most of the Snowflake area, or the Cobrass area, so there’s a lot of terrain still to be made available.

Yesterday’s turns at Timberline were quite good, so I headed back up to Bolton Valley again today for more ski touring. Compared to yesterday, temperatures were about 10 degrees warmer today when I arrived at the Timberline Base. Even though it was cloudy all afternoon ahead of our next incoming storm, the warmer temperatures were quite apparent. Yesterday I toured in the Twice as Nice and Showtime areas, so today I decided to mix things up a bit and spent most of the tour on Spell Binder. With our sub-zero F temperatures overnight, the snow was extremely well preserved, so the depth and quality of the powder was essentially the same as what I encountered on yesterday’s tour. There may have been a subtle bit of settling in the powder overnight, but I’d actually say today’s turns were better and even more consistent than yesterday’s. It’s hard to say if it was just better overall snow deposition and protection in the Spell Binder area, or the pitch was just right for the conditions, or the snow just settled a bit and set up an even better density gradient in the powder. Perhaps all those factors contributed to varying degrees, but whatever the case, the powder skiing was excellent out there today – bottomless turns with about 8 to 12 inches of medium weight right-side-up powder that made the skiing nearly effortless on fat boards. Conditions are likely to change by tomorrow though, since another winter storm is moving into the area tonight. Winter Weather Advisories started appearing in the area yesterday afternoon, and both the advisories and projected snow accumulations from the National Weather Service in Burlington have been ramping up since then. While I while strolling along during my tour today I figured I’d see what my watch had to say about the weather, so I asked for the forecast. Since what comes from the watch is typically briefer than the phone, all it said was “The National Weather Service Office in Burlington has issued a Winter Storm Warning through tomorrow; it should be snowy tonight.” My first thought was, “Well, huh, that’s new; projections for this system seem to keep escalating as we get closer.” In the verbal forecast there was nothing about temperatures or anything else beyond the Winter Storm Warning and the fact it was going to snow, but I certainly like the way the watch prioritizes things. Anyway, indeed Winter Storm Warnings are up for the Northern Greens now ahead of the next system with potentially a foot of snow at elevation. We’ll see what tomorrow brings, but it could be another great ski day.

I was out on a ski tour at Bolton this afternoon and I while strolling along I figured I’d see what my watch had to say about the weather, so I asked for the forecast. Since what comes from the watch is typically briefer than the phone, all it said was “The National Weather Service in Burlington has issued a Winter Storm Warning through tomorrow; it should be snowy tonight.” My first thought was, “Well, huh, that’s new; projections for this system seem to keep escalating as we get closer.” In the verbal forecast there was also nothing about temperatures or anything else beyond the Winter Storm Warning and the fact it was going to snow, but I certainly like the way the watch prioritizes things. Anyway, indeed Winter Storm Warnings are up for the Northern Greens now ahead of the next system. Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 344 PM EST Mon Dec 23 2024 .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 344 PM EST Monday... snowfall amounts for tonight and Tuesday have been increased by 10 to 20 percent based on the latest guidance. The main reason behind this increase is additional influx of moisture given the slightly higher amplitude upper level trough and increased upper level forcing. Model soundings continue to show a 5000 ft thick snow growth layer around 10,000 ft this evening at the onset of snowfall with strong omega co-located within the snow growth layer. This is perfect for dendritic growth for large snowflakes. One concern with the snow growth layer being so elevated, strong 925 to 805 mb winds may help fragment snowflakes leading to needle-like snowflakes which tend to accumulate at a slower rate. This may initially cut into snow amounts but as the snow growth lowers through the overnight hours, low level winds will also weaken. Snowfall rates between 0.5" to 1" per hour may occur during the overnight hours, especially near the Canadian border in response to the lowering snow growth layer and lighter winds. Given all this information, we have gone ahead and hoisted a few winter storm warning for parts of northwestern Vermont and northern New York as snow totals may approach 8 inches locally.

My wife mentioned to me this morning that she’d been seeing increased snowfall numbers in the forecast, and I also saw on TWC that the Winter Weather Advisories had expanded around here. When I checked the BTV NWS site, indeed it looks like projected accumulations have been bumped a bit for this next system, and the BTV NWS forecast discussion talks about the reasoning: Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 746 AM EST Mon Dec 23 2024 NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 645 AM EST Monday... *A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for much of northern New York, northern Vermont, and portions of central Vermont. Areal coverage of 3 to 6 inches has expanded over the previous forecast. Moderate snowfall could impact holiday travelers this evening through late morning Tuesday. A clipper-type system will move through the region this afternoon through Tuesday morning bringing breezy winds and accumulating snow. Two facets of the forecast have changed and generally resulted in increasing snowfall amounts: QPF has increased, and the overall 850mb low-level jet has weakened below 40kts for most locations. Moisture is still projected to be mainly along and behind the lljet supporting more snowfall than usual for downslope locations along the eastern Adirondacks while limiting the eastward extent of shadowed precipitation. As such, snowfall amounts were increased pretty much everywhere leading to more widespread cover of 3 to 6 inches of accumulating snow. One foil, which moderated my forecast a bit, is that the dendritic growth zone is rather high for many locations and coincident with 35+kt winds. These winds will likely fracture a good portion of dendrites resulting in more of a mixed snow-crystal structure reaching the ground favoring a dry, but relatively more dense snowpack that could limit snow depth. Should winds decrease further, however, another couple of inches could accumulate.

The forecast for today was even colder than yesterday, but more snow from the back side of our recent clipper system continued to fall even into last night as the cold temperatures allowed Lake Champlain to contribute moisture for lake-effect snow into the mountains. Thanks to the boost from the lake, we picked up 5 to 6 inches of snow down at our site in the valley, and as of this morning’s snow report, Bolton Valley had picked up 16 inches of snow in the past 48 hours. With temperatures hovering in the single digits F, touring was the call for today’s ski outing, and based on what I saw up at the mountain yesterday, Bolton’s Timberline area looked ready for exploration. It was 2 F when I pulled into the Timberline base area in the middle of the afternoon, but thankfully there was no wind, and the afternoon sun really helped take off the chill. There were a few other groups out touring as well, but overall, it looked like a fairly quite Sunday afternoon at Timberline. The Timberline Uphill Route is in excellent shape, and perhaps because of the temperatures, skier traffic on the Timberline terrain has been quite light. The powder depth at 1,500’ at the Timberline Base is about 6 to 8 inches, and up in the 2,000-2,500’ elevation range it’s 8 to 12 inches. There’s not really much base below the powder down at the 1,500’ elevation, and it’s probably a couple hundred vertical feet up before you start getting a decent amount of base snow. Thankfully, the base elevations down near the Timberline Base Lodge are manageable with the available snowpack because most of the on-piste terrain there isn’t too steep. Above that elevation, the base is sufficient for great skiing aside from scoured areas, steep areas, or areas with underlying obstacles in the snow. The Timberline terrain can certainly support touring traffic right now, but there’s no way it would support lift-served levels of skiing, so we’ll need more snow or they’ll need to put some manmade snow down if they want to start up Timberline lift service in the short term. As the lake-effect snow continued last night, the flakes transitioned from more dendritic to rather small and grainy, so snow ratios came down to the 8 to 10% H2O range for my last couple of snow analyses from the event. Consistent with those observations, what I found out there today was fairly medium-weight powder. It did a better job of covering the subsurfaces than super light powder would have, and it was still dry enough that bogging down wasn’t any issue even on shallower pitches. I was on 115 mm fat skis, which helped of course, but I don’t think most folks would find movement an issue with whatever skis they had. A clipper system is forecast to start affecting the area tomorrow, and Winter Weather Advisories are already up for the western slopes of the Northern Greens. It’s not a huge system, but snow forecasts for the local mountains are in the 6 to 8-inch range and liquid equivalent is up around a half inch in some of the modeling, so it would be a nice boost to the snowpack and snow surfaces if it plays out like that.

I saw that – and Winter Weather Advisories are also up for the western slopes of the Northern Greens.

Thanks for latest maps on that Monday/Tuesday system. I mentioned the next couple of potential events in my report above, and that first one has been looking nice in the modeling. The thoughts from the latest BTV NWS forecast discussion are below, and they do mention the potential for more snow in the higher elevations: Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 946 PM EST Sat Dec 21 2024 .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 304 PM EST Saturday... Monday night, a weak low pressure system and shortwave aloft will track eastward into our forecast area, spreading some snow over the North Country. Snow will start as early as Monday evening in northern New York, but the steadiest snow can be expected overnight Monday night/Tuesday morning. Once the low moves to our east by midday Tuesday, widespread snow will diminish into more localized showers that will mainly be tied to higher terrain. Total QPF associated with the system will be in the 0.1 to 0.4 inch range. Snow ratios around 15:1 will equate to a widespread 2-4 inches of snow out of the event, with some higher amounts possible over the mountain summits. The good news is that temperatures remain cold enough during the event to keep precipitation type as all snow, which will provide a nice backdrop for a white Christmas and overall limit the impacts of the system. We’re closing in on 40 inches of snow for the month here at our site, so we’re nearing an above average December in terms of snowfall. It’s amazing to think, but this is already the snowiest December here at our site since 2017-2018. Another few inches and we’d actually pass 2017-2018 for our snowiest December in over a decade, so I guess it really has been a minute since we’ve had an overall snowy December. Whatever we end up with, the big period propping this month up in terms of snowfall was simply that first week – and it was just a Northern Greens bread and butter pattern with no major storms. It feels like we’re in a slightly less vigorous version of that now though, which is a good thing in terms of snowfall and the quality of the ski conditions.

It was a cold one out there today; indeed, it was really a good day to just enjoy lots of indoor activities. But we did just have another storm push through the region, and the conditions on the slopes are good and keep getting better, so I still wanted to get out to see what the new snow was like and get some exercise. Bolton’s Wilderness Chair was set to open at 10:00 A.M. again, and with the cold temperatures I definitely wanted to warm up with some touring. So, I decided to go with a session like Thursday, which I kicked off with some touring before moving to lift-served turns. When I arrived at the Bolton Valley Village midmorning, it was 7 F according to the car thermometer, and single digits F is definitely midwinter cold. There wasn’t much for wind in the parking area at that moment, so I was encouraged by that while gearing up. Ascending via the Wilderness Uphill Route was quite comfortable, since it’s well out of any wind, and I was generating plenty of heat. I stopped my tour at 2,500’, enjoyed a run through the powder along the edges of Lower Turnpike, and then hopped on the Wilderness Chair for a ride. My body was warmed up for the touring and Telemark turns, and the wind was happily at my back while I was on the lift, but I could tell it was pretty brutal up there at the Wilderness Summit above 3,000’. The calm conditions from below were gone, and the biting winds along the ridgelines made their presence known. After that trip, I didn’t have much interest in heading up to check out the Vista Summit, so I just stayed low and enjoyed a run off the Snowflake Chair. The warm-up touring definitely helped me stay comfortably warm for a couple of lift rides at least before I headed home. Powder depths have obviously been bolstered by this most recent system, and conditions are good, but certainly nothing stratospheric for the Northern Greens. One factor in that assessment is that this latest storm was nice, but the snow was quite dry, and it was less of a resurfacing than the previous storm. We picked up about 0.20” of liquid equivalent from this system compared to 0.40” of liquid equivalent from the previous one, so scale those up a bit according for Bolton’s elevation and it give you a sense for their contributions to resurfacing. The resort is opening more terrain all the time, but lift-served natural snow terrain could still use another solid resurfacing storm with an inch or two of liquid equivalent to take care of the tougher areas. Overall, the natural snow terrain that’s open is quite skiable with good coverage and quality surfaces, and there’s a decent, consolidated base above 2,000’, but you still need to pick and choose your lines somewhat in those spots exposed to wind that get scoured. The resort was indicating 3-6” of new snow in their early morning report, and I can’t separate out accumulations from this storm specifically, but the changes in surface snow depths between Thursday and today give a sense of the contributions from this most recent event at various elevations. Thursday’s surface snow depths are on the left, and the approximate depths I observed today are on the right in bold: 340’: T --> 1-2” 500’: T --> ~2” 1,000’: T-1” --> 2-3” 1,200’: 0.5-1” --> 3-4” 1,500’: 1-2” --> 5-6” 2,000’: 3-4” --> 8-10” 2,500’: 5-6” --> 9-11” 3,000’: 6-7” --> 10-12” So, there’s a lot of nice, fairly deep powder above 2,000’, and it’s right-side-up and skiing great thanks to this latest storm’s snow being dry. My observations from down at the house have been giving me snow densities in the 2 to 6% H2O range throughout this latest storm, so indeed it’s some quality powder. The back side of this system has actually been aided by some direct lake-effect off Lake Champlain. The bands were mostly oriented to affect the Champlain Valley earlier in the morning, but as midday approached, the bands shifted such that they were more directly hitting the mountains. That definitely helped keep it extra snowy throughout the day and boost accumulations. Tomorrow is supposed to be even a bit colder than today, so if I head out it will just be for a tour vs. riding any lifts. After the warming and consolidation earlier this week, it looks like Timberline is probably getting in shape to support some good touring and powder skiing again, so I may stay low and tour there if a ski session comes together. We’ll see how much additional snow the resort is reporting in the morning, but since we were getting hit at our place by those lake effect bands right into the evening today, Bolton should have been getting even more of that snow. The models suggest we’ve got another couple of clippers affecting the area over the next few days, with warmer temperatures as well, so that’s looking nice moving into the holiday week.

I just looked outside and saw that it was still snowing here, and apparently the lake effect is still going on even now. Presumably these cold temperatures in the single digits are making for a decent temperature differential off the lake water. To some degree it looks like our typical, moist, northwest flow into the spine, but those narrower bands have the more unique look of some direct lake involvement.

Nice, thanks for posting that – it was neat to see the Champlain lake-effect presentations on the radar today. I’d argue that Lake Champlain is always there helping to subtly boost the moisture and snowfall heading into the Greens (at least until the lake freezes over), but it’s only so often that the mountains pull the direct Champlain lake effect from their snowfall arsenal. At the time of your image, the bulk of the bands were certainly affecting the Champlain Valley, although you can see them helping to supply a bit of that moisture pushing eastward into the Greens. As the morning wore on though, the bands shifted such that they were more directly hitting the mountains, and I added a few additional radar images below. I was up at Bolton Valley this morning, so I hadn’t seen the radar to know exactly where the moisture was coming from, but the flakes were starting to pick up as I was leaving around midday, and when I got home I saw that it was due to the bands coming directly off the lake. In terms of the local mountains, typically it’s the Central Greens that get the most benefit from direct Champlain lake-effect, but we were definitely getting some up at Bolton today. Down at the house on the Waterbury/Bolton line we were getting hit by the bands as well to varying intensities, and it definitely helped keep it extra snowy throughout the day and boost accumulations.