VABILLUPS1

Everyone says the la nina causes the ever present southeast ridge that has obliterated this winter but is it possible it's the other way around?  With the warming waters of the atlantic, is it possible we're in a feedback loop where the warm water promotes a ridge which then promotes further warming of the waters and sets up the pattern which leads to la nina? 

Ripping pretty good in Va Beach now - 32F. Probably about an inch down. Let’s see if we can get this band to pivot and hold in here as the coastal strengthens. 

Mod snow - Va Beach 32F. Maybe a half-inch down, street just starting to go snow covered now. 

Mod snow Va. Beach - 33F

Snow mixing in - Va Beach 34F

Euro caves to the GFS again. It’s a new world 

A little improvement on that run for the GFS but still out there on its own for the most part. We'll just have to bow down if it pegs this one. 

Rock steady RGEM - it will win again. 

Man, GFS and NAM not even on the same planet. Epic model battle. 

Three words for old-timer snow fans in SE Virginia- Blizzard of ‘80. That’s what the NAM is showing.  The downside? It’s the NAM. Real interested to see what the RGEM shows tonight. If that jumps on board we may have something historic here. 

Remember it was Wednesday 18z NAM that lost the storm last week and eventually brought it back so it will probably be the same this week to some degree but I think the SC to Maine blizzard idea is off the board. Not just because of the NAM but all the guidance today. The thing just gets going too late for anybody south of NJ/NYC to really cash in.

What is wrong with the Euro? I mean, has the atmosphere changed or something. 

1 minute ago, PackGrad05 said:

Remember this is the same time period that many models lost the storm last week only to trend back with better data as the date drew near.

The Canadians never lost it

The Canadian has cancelled the big event. Just some light snows on the coast, gets going too late. I'd love to toss it but the Canadian models really handled last week the best so we'll see. 

Looks great but I have to wonder if the Euro is overdoing the trough the way it was about this time last week with the last storm. 

12-26-10, let's do it again

About 7" IMBY - Va. Beach. GDPS/RGEM definitely the winner on this one. Was rock steady while most of the other models wavered back and forth. Great event. 

Best rates of the night in Va. Beach now. I think we'll easily make 6" here, maybe a bit more. 

Va Beach - nice. Probably close to 2" now with hours to go. Been 4 years since we had one like this. 

Welcome back NAM

Well if there’s any question we’re going to find out about these models in these next couple of days. NAM-GFS vs RGEM/CMC/ECMWF/ICON/UK

I'm stunned - I have no idea what's going to  happen. NAM-GFS are out, ICON/RGEM holding steady. I'll just wait and see at this point. 

This is a total wow. I have never seen a system fall apart this fast and this close to the event. Whoever is programming these models needs to study this one. My goodness.  

Man, all I can say looking at the NAM, the RGEM and the GFS I'm glad I'm not making this forecast. Huge differences in all these models. NAM = 15 inches, RGEM = 8 inches, GFS = 3 inches for my location. 

About 30 hours continuous snow on the 12z NAM for SE Virginia from around midnight Friday to Saturday morning - model now combines the FROPA snow and the 2nd wave. Close to an all-timer if it verifies.