luckyweather

was in Lake Geneva today, sky is milky white with the wildfire smoke, hints of burning plastic outside. bleh

Got about 1.5" in an hour west of Harvard. Still backbuilding to the west, might end up with around 2". Some of the gusts just now flattened some of the surrounding corn to the degree there's definitely going to be some yield issues. 

Rockford Ironman tomorrow is going to be brutal. 

2 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

Time to start heating the lake up for late summer swimming 

That blessed stretch where Oak St beach might as well be Waikiki.

Can you please translate for us weather dummies!!!

Horrible day and the worst is still yet to come. For those of us in the thick of it, we need the support of everyone who appreciates what we do. Contact your Congressional representatives. The staffing shortages caused by the fork and now the probationary employee firings have us on defcon 2 level in terms of how bad it is.

6 hours ago, Powerball said:

Media reports are a Delta flight that departed MSP ended up being flipped upside down while landing at YYZ (one of the wings are also missing).

Early speculation is that it was weather-related between high winds and snowy/icy runways, but it just happened within the hour and will be investigated.

Fortunately, there have been no deaths, but 8 people have been confirmed as injured...

unlikely wx related if the wing is missing. passenger probably bumped the wings fall off toggle switch. 

^^^ a rare sight x2, the stateline chair spinning at Wilmot for the first time in a few years, and fresh goods coming down for the lift ride 

Got some snow laid down with a few hours of wet bulb temps of 20 or so, although the wind made it pretty inefficient. All the N. IL and So WI ski areas have been blowing for the past few days. Alpine Valley and Tyrol Basin in WI open tomorrow as well as Sundown in Iowa. Chestnut in IL looks to open next weekend along with Cascade, Devils Head, Granite Peak, and Wilmot in WI.

It's a La Nina fall/winter in the Midwest. You guys will be COLD. You will get buried. This is the YEAR. My Uncle in west Wisconsin has already seen two lows in the low teens.
This is going to be a big winter for the Plains and Midwest. That's what Nina does. Prepare accordingly.

Seven tenths today northeast of Rockford

Really sorry to see this and sending warmth to you Stebo and your family, donated, hope it helps. I imagine you’ve got this covered but just in case not, would retain a lawyer who specializes in bike law, there are several in Michigan. All too often I see the perps of cyclist hit and runs somehow get off with no or little punishment. It’s like somehow what otherwise would be straight up murder is okay because it was car vs bike. The specialty bike lawyers are prepared for that and know how to fight for accountability while obviously trying to recoup their fees and ensure the family is able to recover costs and some form of settlement.

I got dinged on a Divvy in the south loop on Labor Day weekend by some clown, I wasn’t hurt and was able to keep riding but the guy just threw up his arms at me and sped off. Sorry bro, I was riding on the marked green bike lane and you decided to come out of a blind alley at 30mph, I was definitely the asshole.

Looks like common hop. Common hop is a vine that’s native here in N. IL.

https://x.com/PettusWX/status/1804681264936415268 Janesville tornado on traffic cam

watch incoming for west LOT

Mesoscale Discussion 1372
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1256 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

   Areas affected...Portions of northeastern IA...northern IL...and
   southern WI

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 221756Z - 222000Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...Severe storms capable of producing damaging winds, a
   couple tornadoes, and isolated large hail are expected this
   afternoon into the evening. A watch is likely in the next hour or
   two.

   DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite imagery indicates filtered
   diurnal heating/destabilization of a very moist boundary layer
   (middle 70s dewpoints) along/south of an east/west-oriented
   stationary boundary extending across portions of northern IA into
   southern WI. Over the next couple hours, a weak frontal wave
   currently near far northwest IA will track eastward along the
   boundary, promoting scattered thunderstorm development -- aided by
   the aforementioned destabilization and modest midlevel height falls
   ahead of a midlevel trough. 

   Around 50 kt of midlevel westerly flow atop a 30-40-kt southwesterly
   low-level jet (per regional VWP) will promote organized
   surface-based storms (including a few supercells) near the boundary.
   Easterly storm motions and deep-layer shear parallel to the boundary
   may favor congealing cold pools and localized upscale growth, though
   the favorable shear profile (large clockwise-curved low-level
   hodographs) should encourage a few sustained semi-discrete
   supercells. Damaging winds up to 70 mph, a couple tornadoes, and
   isolated large hail are all possible with this activity. Current
   thinking is that severe storms will develop/mature in the 19-20Z
   time frame and persist into the evening hours. A watch is likely for
   parts of the area in the next hour or two.

   ..Weinman/Hart.. 06/22/2024

Had to water the garden every day since we put it in May 22nd.  Rain has been hard to come by 
 
 

About 65% done with this winter's wood.

https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/news/swpc-issues-its-first-g4-watch-2005
 

If we can clear out early Friday night might see a couple times in a lifetime level northern lights here. Saturday night looks better for clear skies but not sure if there’ll be any aurora then. The 5-10% chance of a Carrington event redux over the next 24-36 hours or so is pretty wild also. 

Quote

@Stebosaid: He really likes being a burden here.

not supposed to diagnose over the Internet but at this point he has earned it. been watching the guy over the years, he clearly has a comorbidity of seasonal affective disorder (sad) and obsessive compulsive disorder (ocd). I wouldn't say it's seen often but it is not incredibly rare either. the obsession with warmth / warm weather / spring arrival, looking for signs of an early spring / entry into summer is a legitimate trauma response to intense bouts of depression from the SAD. he may have had a trauma event in the winter as well, possibly a relationship ending, lost a job, a partner being unfaithful, could also be elements of deep envy of a more successful neighbor/friend/family member who excels in winter or a winter activity. 

The need to invalidate or diminish the enjoyment of the season and its attributes he sees as negative in others is dark triad manifestation, you can see a little of all - narcissism, sociopathy and psychopathy. 

Unfortunately I am being part of the problem as this is an individual that seems to feed on the energy of others reacting to and engaging with him (even things like putting weenie tags on his posts or the posts of those who contradict him, etc). Best from here forward to completely ignore his posts and if we could get a mod who is a trusted regular in the sub who can delete his comments quickly to minimize the engagement with them and ban his alts as he makes them. Until then since we're relying on board admins and other sub mods this will likely be a pretty big ongoing nuisance. That said I doubt this board is the only outlet for his mental illness, inevitable he self destructs elsewhere in life if that's the case.

2 hours ago, Malacka11 said:

Curious to see how well our snowpack can hold up. To my understanding it looks like past Wednesday, there isn't much in the way of rain coming this way and we look to dodge a serious torch. I can't really recall how quickly 30-40F thaws things out. 

Primary factors for time to melt / rate of melt are a combo of sustained winds, humidity, sky cover, hours above freezing and to what degree with secondary factors including frost depth and sun angle. 

I'm in a rural subdivision on a wooded acre lot. We do a number of things to help support the local ecosystem with certain foods we put out daily for both the daytime and nocturnal feeders and have a steady nightly group of visitors we catch on camera. Since Saturday I've only seen cats at night, where over the winter to date every night we'd have several possums, raccoons, an occasional skunk, an occasional fox. I know one of the possums has a burrow/den at the edge of my property so he's not feeding elsewhere, he's just not leaving his den. Have to believe that's the case for the others as well. Have a bird that has been making a continual single chirp every few seconds the past two nights, I am guessing to try to stay alive or warm? Have never seen that before, it's way up in a tree so there's nothing I can do and I don't know if it's in trouble anyway or that's a normal thing. 

As a winter lover my enthusiasm is offset by the fact that this level of deep and sustained cold is just so hard on human life & the less hardy wildlife. Very interested to see what visitors make it back after this is over and which didn't make it. It really offing sucks that we'll blow all this next week with rain. While I don't want it to stay sub-zero, normalizing back to highs near freezing and lows in the teens and a snowstorm next week would have been primo. This deep cold and then rain in late January is just f'in stupid. 

Where is that exactly? Mind if I share with my office? Could be posted on social media and/or the top news write-up of the cold wave.

Beautiful picture perfect sun dog out now for folks west of Chicago. Have been driving for about 30 miles west to east and still visible now.