jrips27

Sweet Jesus. Euro has a 993mb bomb in the northeast GOM at 168

Hey, y’all! I am considering chasing this one in the Hendersonville/Flat Rock area. That area is the closest area to Atlanta (where I’ll be Saturday) that is consistently getting nailed on the models. I came in here to see if you guys had any suggestions or if you think that’s a good spot. Never been up that way before. Thinking of getting a cheap hotel for 2 nights somewhere right off I-26, which I’m sure is a main priority for those plowing. Thanks for your insight in advance!

Euro 3 hour precip depiction GIF courtesy of Ryan Maue https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1070027792589471745

It was a wild one here in Macon this evening. It definitely felt like it got to at least 60mph at times. Lots of reported trees down in the area. Textbook convective complex came through and went tornado warned right over downtown. Here are some videos I captured.

Updated FFC final call? Looks pretty good to me.

Pondered driving down to Cordele, GA tonight and checking out the wind down there but may just stay in Macon and ride it out. Expecting some 50-60mph gusts here whereas Cordele could be looking at 70-80mph. Wild times.

From the NHC 11pm discussion. Wild: Similar to the previous advisory, the environment ahead of Michael is expected to remain conducive for additional strengthening until landfall occurs due to SSTs of at least 85 deg F beneath the hurricane, combined with decreasing vertical wind shear along with the shear vector shifting from current west-northwesterly to a less hostile southwesterly component, which will be more along Michael's forecast track. As a result, Michael is now explicitly forecast to become a category 4 hurricane before landfall occurs.

Certainly looks like a high end Cat 3/Cat 4 Looks like they’re rolling with 125mph and 950mb for now. Surprised there isn’t more chatter in here. Not often you’ve got a strengthening major about to hit the FL Panhandle. Going to be a long couple of days. Stay safe everybody!

GOES 16 imagery. Michael flexing his muscles this afternoon with the US in sight. https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=regional-southeast-02-48-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

Agreed. Here is new 12z Euro max gusts from 5-8AM Thursday morning. These gust maps are inflated and that has been well documented on this board. It's probably a good idea to take 15-20% off the given max value to get a realistic idea of what would actually happen if the Euro is correct. Still that paints a widespread 60mph+ area across central/southern GA https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/georgia/gusts-3h-mph/20181011-1200z.html

Here is the latest update on the NWS Southern Region tropical webpage regarding the wind threat for central GA. You can find this information for your specific area at https://www.weather.gov/srh/tropical Just click on the "threats and impacts" tab and zoom in! Curious to see if FFC will put out a map with gusts reflecting this potential...

I think FFC could stand to beef up the max wind gusts more. I have little doubt we're going to see widespread 60-70mph+ gusts in that southwest part of their CWA. They are going to need to update this current one.

GFS a little quicker and a tick further north compared to 6z. Sure looks like it’s going to give a run at upper 3/low 4

Winds up to 85mph at the 8PM update. Michael continues to organize this evening. Yep watching closely here in Macon as well. Last year, Irma brought wind gusts in the 50-55mph range and brought quite a few trees down in residential areas. Looks like this could rival or maybe even surpass that depending on the track. Definitely going to be an interesting few days.

Recon found 991mb. Levi Cowan is a great follow as well for those of you in the path that are on Twitter. Certainly looks like it’s shaping up to be a serious situation.

Can anybody give me the 18z GEFS mean snow accumulation map? Wanna see how it lines up with the 0z GEFS when that comes out soon.

Wouldn't be the Southeast without some drama

We won our entire club soccer division in the state of Georgia last fall. So we finally got our medals about a month ago.

Its my mom. Come on guys haha

lol, no worries.

It's a facebook picture that was already cropped? I really didn't wanna go back and find the original. Your being a little bit nit-picky don't you think?

At the Georgia- Coastal Carolina game back in September. Go Dawgs!

Great link in the bottom of your post, Burger. Going a bit more into teleconnections which all the newcomers are seeing in the current discussions... This is what you want for snow and cold in the SE. -AO -NAO +PNA Its rare we get all 3 at one time...

Aren't we all?

Since we're on the topic of doggies. Here's of few of my Black Lab from this past winter. Christmas Storm. January 9-10 Storm. I'm pretty sure she was freaking out with so much snow