Ajb

52 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I don’t know. I’m very curious though. It’s possible this method could do better at reducing errors due to sampling. Possible. I don’t know enough. 

"The version of the AIFS available at the time of writing is trained on a subset of the ERA5 reanalysis for 1979–2018 and fine-tuned on operational IFS data from 2019 to 2020. Pressure level fields and surface fields are used for training, together with forcing data, like time of the year and insolation."

https://www.ecmwf.int/en/newsletter/178/news/aifs-new-ecmwf-forecasting-system

Just measured 3” near DTSS. 

Finally some light snow near DTSS. 

This band (near DTSS) is impressive. 

4.5” near DTSS. Still snowing. 

Sticking to the grass near DTSS. 

Quite nice under the yellows.

Snow near DTSS.

Probably about 4” near DTSS. Still snowing steadily, but not quite as hard as between 10-11:30. 

12 hours ago, CAPE said:

Sounds like a reference to the electrical grid in the South central/ SE US.

https://www.serc1.org/about-serc

A bit odd to use that in the context of a weather outlook.

Weather plays a major role in electricity consumption, so maybe that was taken from a write-up aimed at the electricity industry. 

For people really interested in the science of that which shall not be named, I really encourage you to look at the IPCC working group 1 report.

https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/

There's a ton of information there, with links to the original papers, and it should be able to answer all of your questions.

2 hours ago, CAPE said:

An extended solar minimum and a few major volcanic eruptions and we are good to go.

Don’t forget the sulfate aerosols. 

And all snow now near DTSS. 

Sleeting mixing in near DTSS. 

Without commenting on the video specifically, maybe some rando on YouTube isn't the best place to get your news and analysis?

Enormous flakes near DTSS. Grass is covered, elevated surfaces might be giving in. I'd like to request that this band not go anywhere for a while.

Heaviest snow of the day so far (not that heavy) near DTSS.

22 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Can someone explain the point of the Euro Control if it shouldn't be used as guidance?

It’s one member of the ensemble. It has the same initial conditions as the op and can be used to diagnose the impacts of the differing resolution between the ensembles and the op. I don’t think there’s any reason to give it any more weight than any other member of the ensembles, but I’d be interested hearing otherwise. 

Looks to be about 6” near DTSS. 

1 hour ago, Weather Will said:

WB 0Z EURO control has no cold air in sight.  May have to start facing reality here…

For what possible reason is it worth looking at the ensemble control at 240+ hours?

Something pretty legit just went by us near DTSS. 

Lost rates for a while, but picking up again. Maybe .75 inches on the deck. 

Was in the heavy stuff for a while. Moderate snow now. 

Coming down rapidly near DTSS. Accumulating on the streets. 

Beautiful large flakes in the band over the northern beltway.