Ajb

Not just closed for MCPS. Only 30% of lots cleared at this point. 

I mean no doubt the odds are low, but 64 (or however many the Euro has) ensemble members hardly probe the entire space of perturbations. I wouldn’t call it a complete model failure if we get some flakes. 

WSSC advisory:

https://www.wsscwater.com/news/2026/january/urgent-essential-water-use-only-request-issued-all-wssc-water-customers-due

Still haven’t been plowed. This is going well. 

Apple weather already showing 9”-11” for Saturday and another 2”-4” on Sunday. 

Sleet downpour. Sleet avalanches off the roof. 

5” on the ground, er, deck. Very sleety, near DTSS. 

So, which one of you is Kevin Sheehan?

Are there still reduced weather balloons due to NWS cutbacks?

I'd say about 1.5" here in 20910; still snowing.

Sun is up, car and deck are covered. Steady light snow. 

Light snow near DTSS. Schools open. 

52 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I don’t know. I’m very curious though. It’s possible this method could do better at reducing errors due to sampling. Possible. I don’t know enough. 

"The version of the AIFS available at the time of writing is trained on a subset of the ERA5 reanalysis for 1979–2018 and fine-tuned on operational IFS data from 2019 to 2020. Pressure level fields and surface fields are used for training, together with forcing data, like time of the year and insolation."

https://www.ecmwf.int/en/newsletter/178/news/aifs-new-ecmwf-forecasting-system

Just measured 3” near DTSS. 

Finally some light snow near DTSS. 

This band (near DTSS) is impressive. 

4.5” near DTSS. Still snowing. 

Sticking to the grass near DTSS. 

Quite nice under the yellows.

Snow near DTSS.

Probably about 4” near DTSS. Still snowing steadily, but not quite as hard as between 10-11:30. 

12 hours ago, CAPE said:

Sounds like a reference to the electrical grid in the South central/ SE US.

https://www.serc1.org/about-serc

A bit odd to use that in the context of a weather outlook.

Weather plays a major role in electricity consumption, so maybe that was taken from a write-up aimed at the electricity industry. 

For people really interested in the science of that which shall not be named, I really encourage you to look at the IPCC working group 1 report.

https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/

There's a ton of information there, with links to the original papers, and it should be able to answer all of your questions.

2 hours ago, CAPE said:

An extended solar minimum and a few major volcanic eruptions and we are good to go.

Don’t forget the sulfate aerosols. 

And all snow now near DTSS. 

Sleeting mixing in near DTSS.