JetsPens87

17 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yes, I have also noticed that the OP Euro can be too amped with closed lows at times near the Northeast coast day 6-10. But I have also seen the ensembles smoothing out the heights at times too much and can miss closed low positions. The ensembles seem to do better when there isn’t a closed low to deal with. The OP GFS and CMC also have a closed low exiting around the same time period but are a little further east than the Euro. So the further east this feature gets the quicker and higher temperatures we will experience. I only bring this up since it has been such a persistent feature since late March. Even a small influence from a low to our east could result in more onshore flow especially  east of NYC. This is just the day 6-10 period. So it’s possible the 11-15 means eventually allow the ridge to expand enough into our region for the first major 95°+ heat of the season. I would just like to see the upper low to our east actually get far enough away for a deep SW flow to develop which is possible if the low kicks far enough east. 
 

 

I keep coming back to the difference being this time the strong trough in the W. I think that makes all the difference this time of year allowing the SW flow to be the predominant mechanism.

Also keep in mind the AN SST off the E coast will play a factor as well.

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The magnitude of any warm up will be dependent on how much of a trough remains to the east of New England. The smoothed ensemble means show less influence. But the OP runs have been showing a stronger closed low to our east. Since models can really struggle with closed lows beyond 5 days, the details will probably have to wait. 
 

GFS OP moves that pretty quickly. With the feature diving into the W I have to agreement that's on its way out. Hard to get that to stick around now with a trough in the W unlike May.

Thankfully we won't be getting  hoodie updates from @nycwinter

As expected latest GEFS now washout any trough in the E completely and may even be hotter than the EPS now.

1 minute ago, 495weatherguy said:

The reason I ask is that other posters were certain of winter weather patterns, always a week or 2 away.  Obviously that never occurred(thankful tbh).  I say bring on the heat.  

Understandable. It's always tough long range to be honest. Once we got out of the one week period in Jan I always felt winter was over and there were others who did also. 

Doesn't make them more or less right this go around for predicting heat but the big indicators are all there and pretty convicted on it. I don't recall ensembles ever really bringing anything too promising inside of 2 weeks last winter. The heat starts to build next weekend.

Its coming.

11 minutes ago, 495weatherguy said:

What, if anything could derail this?  
 

I admire your confidence in your call for heat this summer.  

The GEFS shows how it's done (though it's quickly moving away from it).

It dives the trough in similar to the EPS in the W but maintains troughiness in the E (it would be hot but not incredibly so like the EPS). EPS washes out the W ATL trough much quicker than the GEFS which jives well with the AN SST pool off the Atl coast and the higher heights towards Greenland and NATL. 

Other than that...not much. It's beyond true backdoor season by then so it would take a large scale pattern disruption to derail this at this point (e.g trough not diving into the W at all) but there is virtually no support for that outcome left.

I'm telling you right now if you get the trough diving into the W like ensembles are showing it is going to push that heat our way and there will be places that hit 100. Only saving grace is there hasn't been a massive heat build to date yet. 

It's coming. 

45 minutes ago, uofmiami said:

100 possible if the modelling is correct this far out.

Euro ensembles are Gung ho on big heat coming

Big shifts showing up in the west on ensembles now.

Gefs slightly less Gung ho in the east as it tries to maintain troughiness. Expect that to correct warmer if the predominant feature becomes a -PNA especially like the EPS shows.

The EPS is an all out torch with heat building to our southwest with a direct pipeline to us.

3 hours ago, nycwinter said:

so humid today ugg already looking forward to fall weather...

Burn weenie burn. You've got a long humid and hot summer ahead of you. 

Enjoy!

43 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

I don't quite get it.  Where is the warmth coming from in eastern Canada?

29 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Disgusting

Burn

42 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Definitely the hottest feeling day of the year so far 

Love it

3 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

really montauk would hit 100's

Dumb gas lighting argument

Where did he say Montauk? There would be big heat if there was a ridge yes...what can't you understand about that?

1 hour ago, nycwinter said:

why are you always mentioning you are wearing shorts when making comments to my posts that is kinda creepy

All your posts about what you're wearing are creepy dude

Pot meet kettle

8 hours ago, nycwinter said:

have the heater on this chilly night...

Lmao 

19 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

looking forward to thursday cool and showery morning... might be a last hoodie day for me..

Ah yes the daily nycwinter wardrobe update. Thank God

9 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

How was the Mets game

1 hour ago, MANDA said:

Amazing how the sensitivity analysis fluctuated for the month of May.  Started out near 1 above, fell to almost normal and now we'll finish the month solidly above against the warmest normals we ever had.    When will we see the next below normal month?

And the biggest driver had to be high minimums thanks to all the cloudy days. 

7 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Fucking met game rained out

 

Oh well. You always want rain. You got it.

1 hour ago, nycwinter said:

if i hurry i can wear my jacket and buy a few things before the sun comes back out..

18 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Dude

Anthony you're gonna tell me this dude ain't a troll?

He's an absolute embarassment

9 hours ago, nycwinter said:

storms just fizzled look promising a few hours ago..

LOL

22 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

exactly i tell it like it is finally a sensible reply...

I dont think that response meant exactly what you think it meant.

You sure you're okay?

Just now, FPizz said:

I think NYC is actually genuine.  When he posted elsewhere for several years he was the same, and even worse in the Yankee thread. 

Oh god you just gave me cringe memories lol

He may have a genuine dislike of warm weather but I believe he's 100 percent a troll saying things like he's light headed from minor warmth like this. That I think he's just looking for reactions.

34 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

Nothing is wrong with that. Whining about it on a daily basis is a different story.

Yes this!