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patrick7032

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Posts posted by patrick7032

    Alaska/Western Canada obs and discussion

    in Central/Western States

    Posted

    Sorry, I probably should have been more specific also. I'm talking about Vancouver Island when I say BC. Just looking for insight, I can look at data on different sites, but planning a trip like that I was hoping to get some insight from people more locally that know all the dynamics better. Thanks!

    I believe November through February....but the bigger storms hit up here in the Aleutian Islands. Will check though for you for down there.

    Alaska/Western Canada obs and discussion

    in Central/Western States

    Posted

    Looks like more snow may be on the way....an exert from the morning discussion....

    BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...

    POTENT VORTICITY CENTER WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE

    EASTERN BERING THROUGH THIS MORNING AND WILL ENTER THE NORTH PACIFIC

    BY THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT TO SEE INCREASED RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY AND

    COOLER AIR BEHIND THE SYSTEM AS IT PASSES. OTHERWISE...A SERIES OF

    WEATHER FRONTS IN FAST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A RENEWED PUSH

    OF GALE FORCE WINDS AND RAIN AND RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION FROM WEST

    TO EAST AND PERSISTING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

    .LONG TERM FORECAST...

    THE PATTERN WILL TRANSITION FROM CLEAR AND DRY TO CLOUDY AND WET LATE

    THIS WEEK...AND THEN PERSIST FOR THE MOST PART OVER MOST OF

    SOUTHCENTRAL...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TOWARDS THE GULF...AS SOUTHWEST LATE

    THIS WEEK GRADUALLY VEERS TO A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR THE EARLY TO

    MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK. A LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH

    EVENTUALLY BUILDS ACROSS THE BERING SEA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING

    A BETTER CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF THE BERING AND

    SOUTHWEST ALASKA THAT HAVE YET TO SEE IT THUS FAR THIS SEASON.

    OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS GENERALLY HIGH GIVEN THE GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT

    IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN.

    post-767-0-21942300-1318341901.jpg

    Alaska/Western Canada obs and discussion

    in Central/Western States

    Posted

    Well you knew it was a "matter of time". Had my first snow of the season as a heavier "convective" shower moved through and the winds kicked up from 13 to 33kt....as the shower "wet-bulbed" down some cooler air. Had a nice mix of rain, sleet, and snow for a little less than 10 minutes....no surprise though as earlier in the day we could see the "white haze" mixed in with the shower to the W-NW coming from a TCU and the freezing level dropped from 2100 feet during the day to 1900 feet on tonight's RAOB launch....and noticed an MCV dropping southeast with enhanced cloud tops on the IR SAT....obs are below....:thumbsup:....:snowwindow:

    PACD 111042Z 34014KT 10SM FEW019 BKN030 OVC065 03/01 A2993 RMK AO2 PK WND 33033/1023 RAE05B24E42SNB30E42PLB33E42 P0001

    PACD 111033Z 34017G30KT 7SM SNRAPL SCT019 BKN026 BKN036 03/01 A2993 RMK AO2 PK WND 33033/1023 RAE05B24SNB30PLB33 P0001

    Alaska/Western Canada obs and discussion

    in Central/Western States

    Posted

    The first outlook of the "DREADED "S" WORD. Not sure if it will occur though as temps remain realitively warm. We would have to "wet-bulb" down some of the cooler air aloft in a "heavier burst" of rain showers.

    FPAK52PAFC_AKZ181

    -----------------

    AKZ181-080000-

    ALASKA PENINSULA-

    INCLUDING...COLD BAY...SAND POINT

    500 AM AKDT FRI OCT 7 2011

    .TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLY MIXED WITH

    SNOW IN THE MORNING...THEN ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON.

    PATCHY FOG IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. NORTHWEST WIND 10

    TO 15 MPH.

    .TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE

    EVENING. PATCHY FOG. LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. VARIABLE WIND

    10 MPH.

    .SATURDAY...PATCHY MORNING FOG. PARTLY SUNNY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN

    SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. EAST WIND 15 TO 30 MPH.

    .SATURDAY NIGHT...RAIN LIKELY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. NORTHEAST

    WIND 20 TO 35 MPH EXCEPT EAST 10 TO 25 MPH SAND POINT EASTWARD.

    .SUNDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. HIGHS IN

    THE UPPER 40S. NORTH WIND 10 TO 25 MPH.

    .SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.

    LOWS 35 TO 40.

    .COLUMBUS DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A

    CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. LOWS 35 TO 40.

    .THURSDAY...RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY. HIGHS 45 TO 50.

    &&

    TEMPERATURE / PRECIPITATION

    COLD BAY 47 35 48 / 30 0 50

    SAND POINT 47 40 48 / 30 0 40

    Alaska/Western Canada obs and discussion

    in Central/Western States

    Posted

    Not something you see everyday in an observation up here....had to issue a short term forecast for it....:lmao:

    PACD 032014Z 27019KT 10SM -RA FEW015 BKN033 OVC044 07/06 A2942 RMK AO2 PK WND 26027/1955 RAB1954GSB09E14 VIS LWR SW P0000 $

    PACD 032009Z 27018G25KT 10SM GSRA SCT025 SCT032 OVC044 08/06 A2942 RMK AO2 PK WND 26027/1955 RAB1954GSB09 VIS LWR SW P0000 $

    FPAK78PACD_AKZ181

    -----------------

    AKZ181-040200-

    ALASKA PENINSULA-

    INCLUDING...COLD BAY...SAND POINT

    1210 PM AKDT MON OCT 3 2011

    .NOW...

    NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA

    THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH 4PM WILL BE LESS

    THAN 0.1 INCHES. SOME SMALL PEA SIZE HAIL MAY OCCUR IN THE HEAVIER

    SHOWERS ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN AREAS OF THE PENINSULA.

    Alaska/Western Canada obs and discussion

    in Central/Western States

    Posted

    It looks like a couple of good storms will hit the Alaska Peninsula and Aleutian Island chain next week. Below is an exert from this mornings forecast discussion from the Anchorage Forecast Office and a "sample" marine zone for one of the effected areas. Note the 60kt+ winds in the model data for the middle of the week. The jet pattern certainly supports it. Looks like the jet pattern will stay "active" through the week. We may have a storm with HURRICANE FORCE WINDS by mid week. A sign of things to come in another month when the "real" storms start to "spin up"....:thumbsup:....:lmao:

    .ALEUTIANS...A POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS LOW LEVEL JET HAVE

    ALREADY SUPPORTED WIND GUSTS ABOVE 50 MPH AT SHEMYA EARLY THIS

    MORNING. WHILE THIS LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD FROM THE KAMCHATKA

    PENINSULA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTS WILL BRING

    STRONG GUSTS ACROSS THE BERING BY THIS EVENING. THE MORE POTENT

    STINGER JET ALONG THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE LOW WILL BRING STORM FORCE

    WINDS TO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS BY SUNDAY AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS BY

    SUNDAY EVENING.

    PKZ176-020300-

    WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU

    400 AM AKDT SAT OCT 1 2011

    ...STORM WARNING SUNDAY...

    .TODAY...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 13 FT. PATCHY FOG.

    .TONIGHT...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT BUILDING TO 28 FT AFTER

    MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG.

    .SUN...SW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 33 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS.

    .SUN NIGHT...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 33 FT.

    .MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 20 FT.

    .TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.

    .WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

    post-767-0-21572800-1317500510.jpg

    Alaska/Western Canada obs and discussion

    in Central/Western States

    Posted

    ALASKA VOLCANO OBSERVATORY WEEKLY UPDATE

    Friday, September 30, 2011 11:00 AM (Friday, September 30, 2011 19:00 UTC)

    CLEVELAND VOLCANO (CAVW #1101-24-)

    52°49'20" N 169°56'42" W, Summit Elevation 5676 ft (1730 m)

    Current Volcano Alert Level: WATCH

    Current Aviation Color Code: ORANGE

    The eruption of a lava dome in the summit crater of Cleveland Volcano continues. Satellite observations over the past week detected elevated surface temperatures at the summit on September 23 and 28 and slow growth in the size of the dome. As of September 26, the lava dome was entirely contained within the summit crater, approximately 15-20 meters (49 to 66 feet) below the eastern rim. AVO has received no other reports of activity at this volcano.

    If the lava dome continues to grow in the summit crater, the possibility of an explosive event increases. With continued lava dome growth, lava may eventually overflow the crater rim to produce a lava flow and/or collapse to produce pyroclastic flows. Sudden collapse of the effusing lava could result in the generation of a volcanic ash cloud. However, lava may continue to erupt without an explosive event. It is possible that explosions from the summit crater vent could produce ash clouds that may exceed 20,000 ft above sea level. These events can occur without warning and may go undetected in satellite imagery for hours. However, lightning associated with significant ash-producing events may be detected within minutes using an automated alarm system.

    AVO does not have a real-time seismic network on the volcano and thus we are unable to track local earthquake activity related to volcanic unrest, provide forecasts of eruptive activity, or confirmation of explosive, ash-producing events. In the event of a large explosive eruption like that in 2001, it is possible that seismic signals may be recorded on AVO seismic networks at nearby volcanoes. AVO will continue to monitor the volcano using multiple sources of satellite lightning detection, and distant seismic data.

    Cleveland volcano forms the western half of Chuginadak Island, a remote and uninhabited island in the east central Aleutians. It is located about 75 km (45 mi.) west of the community of Nikolski, and 1500 km (940 mi.) southwest of Anchorage. The volcano's most recent significant eruption began in February, 2001 and it produced 3 explosive events that produced ash clouds as high as 12 km (39,000 ft) above sea level. The 2001 eruption also produced a rubbly lava flow and hot avalanche that reached the sea. The most recent minor ash emissions were observed in January and June 2009.

    Alaska/Western Canada obs and discussion

    in Central/Western States

    Posted

    The clouds keep "teasing me"....have a TT of 57 and SI of near 0 (have learned <+4 is good for thunderstorms in Alaska)...so had some TCU's develop into CB's.

    PACD 301918Z 30015KT 8SM SCT015CB BKN030 OVC080 07/06 A2926 RMK AO2 RAB02E17 CB W MOV SE TCU N BINOVC NE-SE P0000

    PACD 301911Z 30014KT 6SM -RA BR SCT015TCU BKN025 BKN080 BKN180 07/05 A2926 RMK AO2 RAB02 TCU NW-N P0000

    Alaska/Western Canada obs and discussion

    in Central/Western States

    Posted

    It's getting closer to that time of year.....here is an exert from this morning's discussion from the Anchorage Forecast Office which verified in lower elevations as well in southwest Alaska at Dillingham.

    .SHORT TERM FORECAST...

    .SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...

    SHOWERS/RAIN AND SOME MIX OF SNOW(HIGHER ELEVATIONS) WILL SPREAD

    ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL TONIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST. PATCHY

    FOG AND STRATUS WITH SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACKSIDE OF TROUGH MAY FORM

    OVER COOK INLET LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRI. FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE EAST

    AND SOUTH WILL BRING RAIN TO COASTS FRI AND SAT...WITH SOME SHOWERS

    INLAND. EXPECT THAT THE STRONG WINDS OVER THE GULF FRI MORNING WILL

    SPREAD TO THE NORTH GULF FRI EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO SAT.

    PADL 292147Z 06006KT 6SM -RA SN BR FEW018 OVC022 03/00 A2971

    PADL 292125Z 08006KT 8SM -RA SN BKN024 OVC034 03/M01 A2972

    post-767-0-19321500-1317341261.jpg

    Alaska/Western Canada obs and discussion

    in Central/Western States

    Posted

    The persistent troughing over the Aleutian chain is showing it's effects....snow levels have dropped over the last couple days from ~4800 feet to ~1000 feet. Will post pics later of Frosty Mountain which looks like it may even be under the 1000' level. Also unless we hit 47 sometime today we will have tied a record low max of 46 going back to 1970 I think.

    Alaska/Western Canada obs and discussion

    in Central/Western States

    Posted

    We got our first real termination dust on the front range the other night. The closest peaks to Anchorage didn't get much, they are only around 4000-4500 ft, but directly behind there are some 5000-5500 peaks which did get hit. Freezing level on today's 12Z sounding was 5200ft. Winter is coming.

    post-1451-0-09474000-1316622425.jpg

    To "echo" your point...we've been running 2800 feet MSL on our FRZ heights last 4 launches.

    Alaska/Western Canada obs and discussion

    in Central/Western States

    Posted

    It is well known that models struggle with rapid cyclogenesis events. The model guidance performance with the developing system has been erratic with the depth/placement/timing of the system approaching the AK Panhandle. Even this morning as the low is taking shape, and the models seem to have converged on a solution. Looking at the satellite can give us hints on how the models are actually doing.

    Looking at the IR at 15Z today with the nam12 mlsp overlaid it appears to me as if the surface low is too far south and should be 3 degrees or so further north and maybe a little east. With a developing/mature cyclone the surface low is located to the east of the 'cusp' (the dry intrusion) in the satellite imagery.

    post-1451-0-70426800-1316710188.png

    I agree....spot on....if you loop the IR sat you can clearly see the remnant circulation about 50NM SE of Cape Newenham.

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