TravisWx

APX calling for 10-15" here by tomorrow morning.

30 degrees, 25 mph east wind gusts, moderate snow in Rogers City, MI.

Trend is my friend right now.

Yipes. Both those runs show presque isle county getting slammed with lake enhancement. .

00z NWS Blend just loaded up. Looks a bit more amped for northern lower MI. Continue to show me in the solid 7”+ range.

APX just hoisted a WSW for my area.

12z NBM

NWS 06z blend. I'll take the 7" for NE MI. Gotta get something on the ground soon. It's like a barren wasteland around here.

I don't live in WI, but I've lived a stone throw away from Lake Huron my entire life. I can vouch for how horrible living extremely close to Lake Huron/Michigan can be (weather-wise). For example, we've had maybe 4 solid 70 degree days in Rogers City, MI for all of 2019. Meanwhile, it's been in the low 70's and 80's countless times just 6 miles west of Rogers City. We always end up getting an onshore breeze late morning; which can drop the temp from a comfy 65-68 to 50 instantly until evening. I'm seriously considering moving further inland because of how terrible the "spring" weather has been for the past few years. It's almost the middle of June and I'm still wearing my winter jacket outside. Who wants that?! Sick. Of. It.

Puking snow right now in Rogers City, MI with sustained 20mph winds, gusting to 32mph. It hasn’t come down this heavy all winter. 12z HRRR shows 15-18" of accumulation between now and 00z Thursday. .

12z NAM looking like a good hit for my area (Rogers City, MI in northern lower).

Things are just getting started here in NE Lower MI. APX calling for 8-12” by tomorrow with locally higher amounts due to lake enhancement from Lake Huron. .

APX hoisted a WSW for my county. 6-10 inches expected from this evening until tomorrow evening.

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1139 AM EST Tue Jan 22 2019 .UPDATE... Issued at 1139 AM EST Tue Jan 22 2019 First warm advection band of light snow is exiting far northern Lower and working its way through eastern Upper. Area webcams show only a light coating on some roads, with little impact other than a temporary reduction in visibility. Looking upstream, radar returns are starting to fill in over the central and western UP as a sheared-out shortwave crosses Lake Superior. However, still not much filling in up to this point over southern WI down into the Central Plains as the more potent shortwave slowly gathers steam. That should change soon as we head into the afternoon and the system drifts farther east, starting to tap into a feed of Gulf moisture. The southward/downward trend in QPF continues across northern Michigan with the latest suite of 12Z guidance for the impending winter system. Both hi-res and synoptic guidance hint at this likelihood for the rest of today through tonight. Have tweaked PoPs and QPF accordingly, which generally reduced snowfall amounts through daybreak Wed by an inch or so across most of the area. At this point that wouldn`t affect the ongoing advisory across the area, but it does suggest that upgrading to a warning anywhere is looking less likely. Will continue to monitor trends this afternoon and evening.

Lol @ the past few runs of the NAM. Went from missing us to the north, to right in the bullseye, now missing us to the south. It'll be interesting how APX handles the headlines today. It will also be interesting to see the 12z GFS to see if it caves to the south trend.