ILMRoss

pretty excited about the next 6 weeks or so, hope yall are well 

the good news: the eye has lost some of its symmetry

the bad news: it's because of anvil spilling over from an absolutely monstrous hot tower 

 

still a lot of room for strengthening, don't want to think about where this bottoms out at 

GFS is fine, at this point just happy we're stopping the bleeding tonight.

Not going to lie if the 00zssssssssss windshield wipe and come back with a vengeance tonight the broadcast mets hedging for big totals are going to look really flippin smart

5 minutes ago, PantherJustin said:

And The model GOAT …. HRRR …. It was on an island of its own when Burrel started pumping it last Sat eve And it scored may as well give it a shot in our what have you done lately era 

Yeah, I typically like trying to have the memory of a goldfish when assessing models but I understand some upstate folks really cashed out on that last storm. Upstate folks: some detail/context on what models were good, what models sucked, etc for that situation would be greatly appreciated if you can provide.

All the established mets have probably been bit by the NW trend so many times that they're pricing that into all forecasts going forward. They're betting that later guidance will wind-shield wiper back to more qpf-rich solutions, which is reasonable. How about let's get the 3km  NAM past 00z Saturday before we really start cliff diving.

jeez everyone totals were cut but still looks like a fine storm and we haven't even gotten to the GFS; feels like a funeral in here

RDU worrying about the best totals going to the east and relying on the NW trend to throw precipitation back? This must be what it feels like to live in Winston Salem.

7 minutes ago, msuwx said:

I'm afraid it's now a trend over the last couple of cycles. 6z RGEM, 6z NAM, and 12z NAM all went in that direction. 

Yeah sheesh. Looking at things seemed the NAM family made the trough a little more diffuse and spread out; less sharp and the precip must of responded to that. 

Gonna be honest and maybe this is my inner weenie but I'm tossing that NAM run. As it was progressing on 5h I thought precip would hold serve. The precip shield at 21z Friday looked suspiciously dry. 

4 minutes ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said:

Well, looks like this is trending towards a sleet storm for RDU and points SE. The more amped it is, the more sleet we get. 

I know I posted this entire sleet manifesto a little earlier but the caveat is that if that northern shortwave keeps digging southward and retains some of its punch/integrity, we really get the best of both worlds. Storm would be able to draw more moisture and heights would be depressed (and overall temp profiles would look a lot better). Amped doesn't necessarily mean more mixing issues if the shortwave that's being amped is also digging more to the south.

Don't want to jinx it but things look better on the GFS. I think a run with tangible improvements is on the way

Not like this is news to anybody but good lord the NAM is a nuke. Would be early frontrunner for *the* storm of the 2020s. Northern stream looked better and it would be really killer if we could keep up some more southerly adjustments with the northern stream. I really thought thermals would be less borderline for Raleigh but the beefier northern shortwave was able to add a bit more ridging and keep things relatively warm. 

Going to put on my pessimistic hat on for a second... (I don't like making these posts so this is the only one I'm doing for this storm...)

The snow maps for the triangle are beautiful. Lovely. It's a picturesque spike that punctures straight through Wake County. I'll tell you how I'm interpreting it right now- I'm mentally taking it and shoving it 30 miles to the north. I've sat through so many of these storm threads and seen Wake County in a lovely position just to see sleet. I've been snakebitten so. many. times. We are consistently finding new ways to end up with sleet. So as I see more of these perfect snow maps the pit in my stomach just grows larger.

I'm currently put off by how skinny and shaky the modeled snow corridor is, it really leaves no margin of error. If our system ends up weaker and strung out, the snow corridor isn't simply shoved south- it will shrink with decreased lift and precipitation will struggle to get past, say, highway 1. A stronger version of our current system will likely shift the sleet line north of Wake County. Raleigh folks: we look good right now but man I don't like this tenuous balancing act. 

What I'm looking and hoping for tonight is our northern shortwave somehow beefing up a little more- dropping down with a little more pep in its step- and being able to dig south more. qpf wouldn't be an issue and I think this would depress heights enough to make mixing in the triangle way less of an issue. 

GFS with 4 distinct shortwaves to keep track up at hour 84, lol good luck. Forecasting this is like defending one of those Chiefs plays where they have Tyreek Hill in motion and Kelce in the slot with two of their speed guys in the WR role

8 minutes ago, PantherJustin said:

How does this guy have so much met street Cred? I’ve been on here since 2013 and see his name every storm and he’s never been right on anything or remotely close. I hope ppl don’t actually pay this 

He's fine. He throws enough models/jargon around to give off a "hey kid, let me show you what's really going on" kind of vibe but explains it well enough to be accessible to the public. He can be a jerk but I think people actually kind of like that schtick sometimes. But I think he generally knows what he's talking about and my Richmond friends really like him. I think every region has "their guy". For CLT it is Panovich. For a while in RDU is was Fish. For RIC I think it's DT moreso than a lot of the broadcast people simply because he's been savvy on social media for a decade now. I also like his snow map designs... Usually pretty clean and easy to read (but usually about 20% overdone lol)

Weird to see the TV folks so keyed in this early.

When the surface temps are a near lock to cooperate you can go ahead and telegraph to expect a major winter storm since sensible impacts are pretty similar across all precipitation types.

Would be high quality if the Euro comes and it digs its heels in on the more amplified solution. 

15 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

UK is another I 95 special but trended east from last run 

I looked under the hood and I want to couch that for a zone between Raleigh to Norfolk a decent amount of this accumulation is from Thursday night action.

Going to go forth and say I don't like the Christian McCaffery model either, funny enough that northern shortwave was solidly south of the GFS but the precipitation response was much more muted in comparison. Probably some other stuff going on but you'd expect to see more expansive precip with the Canadian.

One thing I'd like to add- I think sometimes everyone (mets, hobbyists, whoever) can fall into the pitfall of humanizing models too much- I see some "I trust the Euro over everything" like the Euro is a close friend you've been gossiping with, or "the GFS has been hot this month" as if the GFS is Klay Thompson. This isn't a message saying not to rely on models for known strengths and accounting for known biases- but at the end of the day every model is just a supercomputer taking in data, running it through different recipes of the same planetary laws and equations, and spitting stuff out and I think it's good not to get too caught up with the narrative behind each model. 

The GFS wants to bring some of the southern stream system to Cabo San Lucas and I just don't see this occurring.

While most models do have this energy diving a little bit the GFS is on an island with both the strength and southerly extend of this lobe of vorticity.

 

Shout out GFS this is a jolt SW with our northern shortwave just what the doctor ordered and this should be tangibly improved precipitation wise (we'll see how ptypes look)

NAM looks better. 

I'm used to our set-ups going through a slow degradation as we go through the week. But I gotta say the speed at which we went front praying for a more amplified pattern to looking like a zr event for a lot of us really took me aback. 

I think that the main culprit is the northern shortwave.. see below for 12 run GFS trend. 3 days ago, that shortwave was diving into the Dakotas with a little oil and vinegar... there's been noise but you'll notice it's gotten weaker and is diving further east. Our current version doesn't dig as far, which is a lose-lose. Not only does it struggle to pop the coastal, but because it is weaker and more retreated into the polar trough, the cold press is weaker, and I think has really allowed for warmer mid levels to sneak back into the picture.

I don't think over amplification is the key culprit. Sure, looks like it on the Euro, but that's the risk in playing with southern energy as the Euro currently depicts. A stronger northern shortwave in that case would bring a stronger cold press and would likely be able to throw cold water on the southern shortwave's idea of going up the coast. 

The NAM had an encouraging jolt westward with our energy. It may be a little late, I think "go time" is sooner than most people realize, but I think there's still some wiggle room to trend to some more positive solutions. 

2 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

So this apparently is the 18z EPS....  which is weird because it's much further south than what the Weather bell one shows... anyone have any idea why?

I think that that particular site incorporates sleet/zr into the totals